Obama 117.
I believe Obama is going to win because that’s what the polls say.
As Nate Silver says, if the polls as a group are biased towards Obama by 2+ points, then Houston, we’ve got a problem. But I don’t see any reason to believe that that is more true of this election than of past elections.
As I understand the OP, this is a poll of who we think will win, not who we voted for. As it stands right now, short of systematic bias or error in polling, Obama is much more likely to win. And, for the sake of full disclosure, I didn’t vote for Obama or Romney.
Obama 119
I think Romney wins most of the swing states and pulls out a comfortable EC win. I don’t expect we’ll know the results tonight though.
I did not vote for Romney.
Why do you think the polls will have gotten it so badly wrong? Why will the aggregate average polls in this election be particularly erroneous, as compared with their performance in previous elections?
That seems unlikely. Its hard to see how Romney wins most of the swing states and have the entire election hinge on one or two states where the vote total is so close that they won’t get called tonight.
My prediction that Obama will win brings the score to 128-10.
I just think less enthusiasm for Obama this time around and more enthusiasm for the Republicans will reflect in drastically different turnout compared to 2008. The poll performance would be off simply because turnout has been predicted incorrectly.
Networks are much more hesitant to call a state that is close than in the past. I think the swing states will all be close enough that several of them don’t get called until tomorrow morning. I’m not predicting this will last a month or anything; I just don’t think it gets called tonight.
Of course, the market seems to have a very different view than me, which I readily acknowledge. Mine is simply a gut feeling.
. . . You ain’t from around here, are ya?
Obama 130, though, just so I don’t give the impression that I’m completely rejecting you.
Obama -1.
I ninja’ed you all.
You’re definitely slap-happy today. Did you get enough sleep?
Haha I’m new! lol. As in I joined last night. I hadn’t realized there was a poll option and it was too late to edit. I realized how stupid i sounded lol. Feeling like an idiot. :smack:
I’m 141 for Obama, versus 11 for Romney. I think that Obama is more likely to win because that’s what all the evidence implies. It is, of course, possible that all of the evidence is in error, and all in the same direction, and that direction is such that Romney would actually win, but if one attaches caveats like that, then one can never figure anything out.
Polls aren’t “math.”
Well, I guess there is room for debate here:
Polls aren’t “statistics.”
They use statistics in their analysis. Heavily. Or do you think that polls simply consist of Cletus asking his neighbors which guy they like best for president?
At any rate, I believe Obama will win because the mathematical (statistical) analysis of polling data is quite accurate.
If only.
They’re tragedies.