Not who do you want to win, but who do you think will win? As much as it pains me to say it, I think Donald Trump is going to win.
- Kamala Harris
- Donald Trump
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voters
Harris will win the popular vote.
Trump will win the EC vote, by hook or by crook.
Harris will win by a significant margin.
No vote, it will be very close and I’m really almost terrified that Trump will win.
I’ve toned down my predictions. I no longer think a landslide for Kamala, but I am still certain that she will win and take most if not all of the swing states.
I am also confident that we will know the winner/outcome with little delay, and any challenges by the Trump team will be feeble, half-hearted and quickly struck down by the legal system. Any post-election violence will be very sparse and sporadic.
As of the time of this post I have no confidence to forecast either.
Trump will definitely win the EC with 277 - 296 votes depending on just how bad an election it is for the Democrats.
Harris is screwed. Michigan will go to Trump and Pennsylvania may very well do the same. Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona will go totally red.
This will be a total disaster for the US and our allies.
The idea Texas or Florida will flip to Harris are unhinged fantasy.
I remain cautiously and rationally optimistic of Harris winning, not by a landslide but handily.
Trump is, if nothing else, practically infernally gifted in getting people to hate. Hate motives, note his recent efforts in wooing Muslim/Pro-Palestinian/etc individuals on Biden and Harris’ support of Israel. While he himself was one of the people that kept boosting Bibi and further pushing the existing tensions to the brink.
The same man who has unabashedly has spoken words that can leave no rational person any reason to think he’d be better, rather 1000x worse.
But he gives them a way to express their hate, and that turns off their rationality.
So yeah, he’s going to win, no matter how much it terrifies and sickens me.
And that’s leaving out how badly I expect the Republicans to lie, cheat, and possibly steal - and if all else fails, go the AZ route where they just say “Well, it doesn’t matter what the voters said, it’s up to the states to determine which electors they have, and we have the vote as a method of establishing preferences, but we aren’t, like, bound by them.”
Yes, I know it didn’t happen, but seriously, this time? I see no reasons that if they think they’re going to loose, that any state with a strong (R) majority that ends up there will just DO it, and figure the SCOTUS will blink or wink, take your pick.
Back to the whole “But what if we DIDN’T?” that’s been working really well for (R) since 2016.
Its a coin flip, but I would give a slight advantage to Harris. I think that she will do a better job getting the vote out. I think her supporters generally have more enthusiasm, and her campaign is is run by people chosen for their competence rather than their obsequiousness.
Also, while I feel bad benefiting from other people misery, Hurricane Helene may have won it for Harris. The hardest hit areas of North Carolina are quite red, and people in those areas may have more important things on their mind than voting. Given that NC was pretty close to begin with there is a good chance that Harris can take it, which will make it very hard for Trump to win the EC.
I think EC is favored for Trump, so Trump it is. I haven’t been following any polling lately other than to know that it’s tight, which makes me think Trump wins. I was resigned to this when Biden was the candidate. I got somewhat hopeful when Harris stepped in, and I think she has a better chance than Biden, but I just have no faith in the electorate.
I’m horrified to have to say I think Trump will win, though this is quite a low confidence prediction. I base this on (1) polls that give them practically identical numbers, whereas the Electoral College requires an advantage of around 2% or 3% for a Dem to win; (2) the embarrassment some feel to admit they want Trump to win causing him to outperform his polling; (3) the possibility of some kind of cheating by Republicans such as the movement for legislatures to just hand Trump votes (for example what Andy Harris endorses in the case of North Carolina); (4) the possibility Republican volunteers in polling places will frighten Dems away, and (5) the betting markets giving Trump a significant advantage (for example 61:44 at https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/).
I think this is horrible. I also think there’s no realistic hope in the long term even if Harris wins this election. The Republican Party has chosen a white male supremacist approach with an antivoting fix for the problem that most Americans aren’t white males. I think we’ve already suffered democracy collapse. I so wish I already lived in another, more democratic country.
I’m still sticking with Harris getting 300+ EVs. I just can’t see her doing worse than Biden did.
I think it will be Trump and it might be both a popular and EC win. The oligarchs have clearly decided they can work with him and America is an oligarchy, what they want, they get.
Harris overwhelmingly wins the popular vote, Electoral College ties. Trump still becomes POTUS via the House. Confusion reines supreme among the ignorant masses.
Or Trump wins the EC.
Either way I’m predicting Trump but I wouldn’t put money on it. It’s going to be a squeaker.
The Votemaster is now showing 278 EVs for Trump, 241 for Harris and 19 ¶ too close to call. I can only hope they are wrong (which is what they hope too).
My only regular sources of information about the election have been this site, CNN and one oddly right-leaning blog site. I suspect getting out the vote will be the deciding factor and for that reason remain hopeful that Harris wins with EV’s in the 275-280 range.
I live half a world away from the US but if Trump wins and starts putting tariffs on everything, I think no country in the world will be immune to its effects.
Same with me. There is more enthusiasm for her and less for Trump than 4 years ago.
I can’t predict as, to me, it’s just too close and a large chunk of the electorate is just too scary.
I am just finishing two weeks in Czechia and, on a tour, was discussing this with a German tourist and our Czech guide; they were both very worried about this.
I am firmly in the “Harris will win and it won’t be as close as last time” camp, but the anti-Trump enthusiasm is also not as high.