Pre-Oscar Season Skullduggery

Of course I’m making predictions, you understand, not who I think should win.

I’m going with Hathaway for Best Actress because in the past the Academy has shown an extreme preference for giving awards to young, pretty actresses, especially for their first nomination; older winners, like Helen Mirren, are rare, at least in the last while. Meryl Streep has the disadvantage of not only being old, but having won (twice) before, which Helen Mirren never had.

Kate Winslet will take home the Supporting nod because (a) the “give it to the distinguished actor with a lot of nominations but no wins” sentiment is a real and strong one, and in Winslet’s case she’s been one of the greatest actors in the world for a long time, (b) she will likely be nominated for both Lead and Supporting and such actors almost always win one award or the other, (c) she’s young and pretty, an advantage here, and (d) she’s always been a good sport about her losing streak (Fun fact: Kate Winslet is the youngest actress to get a second nomination. And the youngest to get a third, a fourth, and a fifth.) Just too many positive indicators.

Heath Ledger will win, obviously, and to be honest I think he’d win even if he hadn’t died. It was a remarkably frightening and memorable performance.

I’m taking a bit of a risk in calling Boyle for Best Director, but I just have a feeling.

Hathaway will definitely win for Rachel Getting Married. I saw it last night, and I counted three separate scenes that would serve as Oscar clips. It seems almost deliberately constructed at the chemical level to highlight what a remarkable actor Hathaway has become.

Hello, there!

It doesn’t like it that much. Since 1960, Picture/Director has been split only eight times. Since 1990, it has been split slightly more often – four times:

In 1998, Picture was "Shakespeare in Love, Director was Spielberg for “Saving Private Ryan”

In 2000, Picture was “Gladiator”, Director was Soderbergh for “Traffic”

In 2002, Picture was “Chicago”, Director was Polanski for “The Pianist”

In 2005, Picture was “Crash”, Director was Lee for “Brokeback Mountain”

In all the other 14 cases since 1990, Picture and Director matched.

Ed

But he’s never won an Oscar for it. There’s been a tradition of tough guy veterans winning Oscars for reworkings (or even semi-parodies) of their iconic images–from Lee Marvin’s and John Wayne’s Oscars in the 60s to Sean Connery and Jack Palance a few decades later. The Academy loves Clint and there are enough reasons to revert to him (Rourke’s too troubled, Penn’s won too recently, Langella should be happy just to be nominated) that Clint’s not in a bad position to pull it off.

In fact, as long as we’re doing pre-nomination Winner predictions, here’s my guess:

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Eastwood
Actress: Winslet
Supporting Actor: Ledger
Supporting Actress: Cruz
Director: Boyle
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Doubt
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design: The Duchess
Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Song: “The Wrestler”, The Wrestler
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Sound Editing: WALL-E
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Make-up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Animated Feature: WALL-E

Final Tally:
5: Button
3: Slumdog
2: Dark Knight, WALL-E
1: Doubt, Duchess, Gran Torino, Milk, Rev. Road, VCBarcelona, Wrestler

In all fairness, it’s been a quarter of a century since Streep won her last Oscar, a fact that becomes painfully obvious every time she gets nominated and doesn’t win (essentially, a bi-annual occasion). She will definitely win one again, and while this year’s not a certainty, it’s actually her best shot at it for quite a while. If Doubt does score 4 acting nods, it means the largest branch of the Academy (the thesps) is strongly behind it, and that support alone may be enough in a field with no clear front-runner.

All good points, but also equally valid reasons why she might win lead, which is what I’m guessing.

More Guild nominations:

American Cinema Editors (ACE awards, aka Eddies)

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter

The Dark Knight
Lee Smith, A.C.E.

Frost/Nixon
Mike Hill, A.C.E. & Dan Hanley, A.C.E.

Milk
Elliot Graham

Slumdog Millionaire
Chris Dickens
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

In Bruges [YAY!]
Jon Gregory, A.C.E.

Mamma Mia!
Leslie Walker

Tropic Thunder [YAY!]
Greg Hayden

Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alisa Lepselter

WALL-E
Stephen Schaffer

=====================================

Art Directors Guild (ADG) nominations:

Period Films

CHANGELING
Production Designer: James J. Murakami

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Production Designer: Donald Graham Burt

DOUBT
Production Designer: David Gropman

FROST/NIXON
Production Designer: Michael Corenblith

MILK
Production Designer: Bill Groom
Fantasy Films

THE DARK KNIGHT
Production Designer: Nathan Crowley

INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL
Production Designer: Guy Hendrix Dyas

IRON MAN
Production Designer: J. Michael Riva

THE SPIDERWICK CHRONICLES
Production Designer: James Bissell

WALL E
Production Designer: Ralph Eggleston
Contemporary Films

BURN AFTER READING
Production Designer: Jess Gonchor

GRAN TORINO
Production Designer: James J. Murakami

QUANTUM OF SOLACE
Production Designer: Dennis Gassner

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
Production Designer: Mark Digby

THE WRESTLER
Production Designer: Timothy Grimes
The only ones left to announce nominations are the Visual Effects Society and Costume Designers Guild. There used to be a Hair and Makeup Guild but they kinda disappeared a few years ago, or at least, quit publicly announcing their awards.

Note that these are the same 5 PGA/DGA nominees, and no craft/“technical” category in Oscar history has paired up more often with the eventual Best Picture winner than Film Editing. At this point, any deviation from these 5 in the Picture slot will be a fairly big upset.

Actually, Winslet for Revolutionary Road and Cruz in the Supporting category’s a reasonable prediction, I would agree.

It is mildly possible Winslet could win both, which would be funny as hell.
**
Diogenes:** Please tell me you’re kidding.

Seriously? The Spiderwick Chronicles got in the Art Directors Guild nominations, while The Fall didn’t? It was both a great period film and the most astonishing fantasy film visuals I have seen since Pan’s Labyrinth. All I can say is there must not have been a single ad or screening for it.

I know. It hurts to see it so ignored. I’m just assuming that Tarsem didn’t have the money to take out full-color ads in the trades and/or send out DVDs to voters.

Waltz with Bashir may become the first animated film to be nominated in this category (it is also eligible for the Animated Feature Oscar as well). The Class won the Palme d’Or at Cannes and Jan Troell from Sweden is an Academy vet (he’s had 3 previous nominees in this category, as well as personal nods for Directing and Screenplay, but none of his films has ever won an Oscar…yet).

The big omission is Italy’s Gomorra which won the (runner-up) Grand Prize at Cannes and 5 European Film Awards, including Best Film and Best Director.

What was the eligibility status opf the film? It was premiered for the first time in 2006, and at various festivals and whatnot in 2006 and 2007. Perhaps it eliminated itself from eligibility by not being, technically, a 2008 film.

Here’s a list of all 280+ eligible films in the feature length film categories. The Fall is indeed one of them (since its first formal theatrical run was in the 2008 calendar year).

I know that he’ll probably get robbed, but I just saw Richard Jenkins in The Visitor and he was fantastic. One of my favorite acting jobs I’ve seen this year. Great film too…Honestly, this should really get some Supporting Actor attention as the entier cast is teriffic. I hope it gets a screenplay nod too. Anyone else see this? I’m thinking of starting a thread on it a little later.

As long as we’re at it, here are my modest predictions for the Nominations (which will be announced tomorrow morning):

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Original Screenplay
In Bruges
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona
WALL-E

**Best Adapted Screenplay **
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature Film
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir

Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Everlasting Moments, Sweden
Waltz with Bashir, Israel

Best Documentary Feature
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Pray the Devil Back to Hell
Standard Operating Procedure

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Milk
WALL-E

Best Original Song
“Down to Earth”, WALL-E
“Jai Ho”, Slumdog Millionaire
“Once in a Lifetime”, Cadillac Records
“The Story”, My Blueberry Nights
“The Wrestler”, The Wrestler

Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Fall
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Fall
The Other Boleyn Girl

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The Reader

Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Flash of Genius
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
WALL-E

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Tally
12: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
9: The Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire
6: Milk, WALL-E
5: Doubt, Frost/Nixon
4: Revolutionary Road
3: Iron Man, Rachel Getting Married, The Reader
2: Changeling, The Fall, Vicky Christina Barcelona, Waltz with Bashir, The Wrestler
1: Australia, Cadillac Records, Defiance, The Duchess, Flash of Genius, Frozen River, Gran Torino, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, In Bruges, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Kung Fu Panda, My Blueberry Nights, The Other Boleyn Girl, Tropic Thunder, The Visitor

The nominees:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year
“Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
“Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction
“Changeling” (Universal), Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando
“The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Art Direction: Michael Carlin, Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
“Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography
“Changeling” (Universal), Tom Stern
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
“The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle

**Achievement in costume design
**“Australia” (20th Century Fox), Catherine Martin
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Jacqueline West
“The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Michael O’Connor
“Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Glicker
“Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
“Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
“Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
“The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature
“The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
“Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
“The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
“Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
“Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject
“The Conscience of Nhem En” A Farallon Films Production, Steven Okazaki
“The Final Inch” A Vermilion Films Production, Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant
“Smile Pinki” A Principe Production, Megan Mylan
“The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306” A Rock Paper Scissors Production, Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

**Achievement in film editing
**“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lee Smith
“Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
“Milk” (Focus Features), Elliot Graham
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year
“The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
“The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
“Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
“Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
“Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

**Achievement in makeup
**“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Greg Cannom
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army” (Universal), Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

**Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
**“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.),Alexandre Desplat
“Defiance” (Paramount Vantage), James Newton Howard
“Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Elfman
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“Down to Earth” from “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
“Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
“O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman andMaya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Frost/Nixon” (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production,Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
“Milk” (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
“The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production,Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film
“La Maison en Petits Cubes” A Robot Communications Production, Kunio Kato
“Lavatory - Lovestory” A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production, Konstantin Bronzit
“Oktapodi” (Talantis Films) A Gobelins, L’école de l’image Production, Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
“Presto” (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production, Doug Sweetland
“This Way Up”, A Nexus Production, Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film
“Auf der Strecke (On the Line)” (Hamburg Shortfilmagency), An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production, Reto Caffi
“Manon on the Asphalt” (La Luna Productions), A La Luna Production, Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
“New Boy” (Network Ireland Television), A Zanzibar Films Production, Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
“The Pig” An M & M Production, Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
“Spielzeugland (Toyland)” A Mephisto Film Production, Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Richard King
“Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Tom Sayers
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
“Wanted” (Universal),Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney),Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
“Wanted” (Universal), Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
“The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
“Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
“Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
“Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
“The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay
“Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
“Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
“In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
“Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
“WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

*Dark Night *not nominated for Best Picture. No Leo. Kate gets Best Actress nom for The Reader, not Revolutionary Road. Discuss.

The Dark Knight got robbed. So did Christopher Nolan. How did The Reader get nominated? Winslet is good, but the rest of the movie is pretty average. It definitely didn’t merit a directing nomination.

Glad to see RDJ get a Supporting Actor nom. Glad to see Wall-E not get a Best Picture nom (overrated, IMO) . Glad to Slumdog getting lots of love. I now think it’s the frontrunner to win Best Pic.

There is a new thread now just to discuss the nominations, which I didn’t know when I posted them here. See you over there.

Well, this didn’t quite work out.

Everyone seems surprised. I’m not shocked, but a bit surprised.

Hah. Yeah, I got pretty well pwned. I guess I grossly underestimated the Academy’s love for limited-release Nazi movies.

Ah, well. A boy can dream.

Edited to add: Jesus Christ, I just looked back on my complete OP and I couldn’t really have been more off the mark. In my defense, this was before I’d really heard of Slumdog Millionaire, and I do maintain the right to be shocked at The Wrestler getting shafted.