Maybe, but the kind of speeches trump likes giving are self-aggrandizing screeds about how great he and his supposed accomplishments are. Wartime speeches would not be all about him. But I suppose if anyone could make a wartime speech all about himself, trump could.
I think, like some have said, that the 51st state talk is trump talking trash like he likes to do, and he will soon be distracted by the next shiny thing. Or, Canada will make some tiny token concession to something and the trump admin will treat it like a huge capitulation by Canada and claim victory.
I believe what is much more worrisome than the possibility of the trump admin declaring war on Canada is about trump and his minions tearing down our government institutions, destroying the economy, and leaving us insecure to enemy nations, as with their stopping anti-Russian cyber operations. The U.S. has much more to fear from trump than Canada does, IMO.
Because I have lived for half a century in a world where it was a ridiculous scenario, and because I don’t want it to be true. Emotional resons, not rational ones.
I mean, there’s a lot of rational reasons not to get that far, but those same reasons would have kept us from where we are NOW, so clearly they’re not in play.
The last feels right to me, though I disagree with the “distraction” premise. The months and perhaps weeks leading up to the midterms will be the danger zone. Trump will need to pump up the base to protect his Congressional defensive wall, and belligerence against Canada will be part of it. If they haven’t fully succeeded in short-circuiting the election machinery by that point and they perceive a real risk of losing control of Congress, then the rhetoric will escalate dramatically, potentially leading to a situation where, as I said, Trump boxes himself into either action or retreat.
I wonder how much of this Canada uproar stems from that picture of Trudeau, Macron, and somebody else (UK?) standing around laughing at him during presidency #1. He definitely strongly dislikes Trudeau and Macron. It’s all about revenge for him anyway.
I don’t think it’s likely but I’ll answer for when I think it’s most likely. I think it would most likely come after Trump has had the most time to consolidate power in military, which suggests later in his administration. And it would come when he is feeling politically threatened, so if Republicans have lost control of the House in 2026, his popularity is low, and the economy is weak. He would feel most vulnerable if a Democratic successor is a looming possibility. But he would not do it so close to the election that it comes as a desperate shock to Americans that pushes them to vote for the Democrat. So, spring or summer 2028.
Again, without thinking it likely at all, I would say that Greenland goes first. There aren’t a lot of people there. We already have a massive military presence there. Denmark isn’t fighting back. If Greenland rolled over, hardly anyone in the world would notice.
Trump might be oblivious to the mid-terms until they are over. He’s not running, he’s not a strategic thinker, and those elections are someone else’s problems. He wouldn’t make a grand gesture to help someone else. He’ll deal with a Democrat-controlled House only after the mid-terms. I think it would also be a real miscalculation on his part to invade Canada close to the election because I would predict an anti-Republican backlash.
This is absolutely true. And yet, Canada has more to fear from Trump than they have had to fear from America in over 150 years.
Of course it wouldn’t be to help anyone else, it would be to protect himself. And I expect he would try to use “wartime crisis” as an excuse to cancel the elections anyway.
How hard would it be for Canada to take complete control of NORAD-Canada? Its ostensible purpose – to protect Canada and U.S. from the nuclear-armed Eurasian superpower – is inapplicable now, with US allied with the Eurasian enemy.
Should a Canada-Greenland defense pact be in the works? How hard would it be for Greenland, assisted by the Canadian military, to wrest Thule Air Base (aka Pituffik Space Base) from their mutual enemy?
If this happens, he will invade during the lame duck period between the election and the new Congress being sworn in. Present them with the war as a fait accompli, and dare them to try to “waste our troops’ gallant sacrifices” by ending the war.
I appreciate your honest response. I would argue that complacency has gotten us to this point. We kept telling ourselves that it can’t happen here while it was happening here. January 6 was an attempted coup, DOGE was a successful coup and Trump is undeniably a fascist. Those all seemed unthinkable but here we are.
Fascists conquer and expand and Canada represents a unique threat to Trump’s fascist regime: it is culturally very similar to America, but is a democracy with a strong social safety net. It represents a cultural and political challenge to America’s repressive regime. It stands as living, breathing proof to Americans that it doesn’t have to be this way and thus it must be destroyed.
Too late for it to benefit Trump at all so he’ll have no motivation to do it. In a lame duck Congress awaiting a theoretical blue wave, it might even be just enough to get him impeached and removed from office.
Exactly this; it’s the same way the Old South/Confederacy considered the North a threat merely for existing. Just by existing, it demonstrated that all their rhetoric about slavery being good and necessary was nonsense, therefore the North was an intolerable threat.
It would be enough to remind congress that they actually do have to approvae and vote for a declaration of war. This isn’t some far off land that we barely know or care about like Vietnam or Afganistan.
I have been of the opinion that we will not militarily invade Canada, and that the trade war will end with some sort of deal that involves minuscule amounts of concessions by Canada, enough to make Trump “ feel” like he has negotiated something great.
However, I now feel like Trump looks at Canada the way Putin looks at Ukraine.
So, I don’t think we can completely discount an invasion at this point…maybe a 5% chance where I previously had it at a 0% chance.
When you think about what is possible under Trump, remember this: it has only been two months and he has already let an oligarch dismantle huge segments of the federal government and installed a rapist alcoholic white-supremacist tv host as secretary of Defense.
The problem with this thinking is that there will not be a lame duck Congress. The behavior of Musk, Trump, Vance and Speaker Johnson already make it clear to me the outcome of elections in 2026 will be ignored before they give up control of either the House or Senate. Any red seat in the House that flips blue will be blamed on voter fraud and overturned by friendly courts.
It is highly unlikely the Ds will flip enough Senate seats to change control. But I am certain a way will be manufactured to keep control of both chambers.
And the war would be one tool in that plan. Any Democratic member of Congress who doesn’t support it is obviously a traitor, and can be arrested and dismissed from Congress. And the MAGAs will not just accept that, they’ll celebrate it, because it’s what Trump “Would need to do to win the war and bring freedom (or justice) to those nasty Canadians”.