States I’ve lived in:
NC: Toss-up. We probably won’t know until after the official count is out.
OH: Probably pretty close to the national popular vote, so Obama, but not necessarily by much.
VA: Comfortably in the Obama camp.
PA: Also comfortably in the Obama camp.
Well, if there were an election in my home state*, and either senator were eligible to run, Obama would win by a country megametre.
Michigan for Obama. McCain and his sled dog have abandoned it a while ago.
McCain should get 62% of the vote in Idaho.
Walt Minnick by the slimmest edge in the 1st Congressional district.
Jim Risch will have no trouble in taking Larry Craig’s Senate seat.
Has NSW ever voted for a blackfella? 
Hm, the other races can be interesting, too, true. So I’ll also mention that Governor Schweitzer and Senator Baucus (Democrats both, though Schweitzer’s running mate is a Republican) are both strong favorites here. Schweitzer is highly popular, and nobody’s heard of Baucus’s opponent.
In the House race for Republican Denny Rehberg’s seat, the only real question is who will take second place, the Democrat or the Libertarian: The Democratic challenger is literally running a campaign on a budget of $0.
Good question. But Obama is not an Aboriginal, so Australian prejudices against them would not come into play. I think that being African American would bee sen as a point in his favour.
I believe the Great State of Texas will go for the not-so-great candidate of McCain. If I’m wrong, I win 20$, but I don’t think I am.
In Texas, I don’t see the long lines at the early polling places that are being described in the swing states like Georgia. It’s so far in McCain’s pocket, no one is campaigning here. I didn’t see any political ads on television until last week, and those were national Obama ads. If there’s any hope for Obama here, it is that I did not see a line at the polling place. The only time I had to wait in line to vote (always on the day of, never early voted before this year), was when the Clintons had energized both sides to get out and vote. But! turnout is supposedly very high this year, and Clinton did better than most recent Democrats here (he lost TX by less than 10%, vs more than 20% for most other contenders), the Democratic primaries and caucuses were heavily attended. Who knows, it really could go for Obama.
But I still say it won’t.
Missouri here. I think that Obama has a chance to win, but it will be by a razor-thin margin, called in the wee hours of the morning. GOTV efforts will be absolutely crucial here. I’d love to see a landslide for Obama, but don’t really expect that. Parts of MO are redder than red.
Since we are also talking about states we’ve lived in:
Wisconsin: Obama
California: Obama
Hubby and I own several properties in South Dakota, and though we have never lived there, we know the state well. I’ll call that one for McCain.
Nebraska for McCain but I’m just optimistic enough to think Obama might snaffle one of the five electoral votes (either Lincoln, which is full of university students, or Omaha, driven by the folks who brought you Ernie Chambers).
My original home state, Pennsylvania, will be screamingly close. Many lawyers will be involved. Could go either way.
Bwuh? Obama’s had a huge lead there for months now.
If the polls underestimate the amount of minority and white support that Obama has, and the extent to which black and Hispanic voters will get out there, I think it’s a possibility. Certainly there’ll be a better shot in 2012.
And yet both candidates are still spending a huge amount of time there trying to secure the state. It’s not going to be a walk for Obama.
Going by 538’s chart, the October polls have Obama ranging from +6 to +13. I’d call that pretty safe.
I’m torn on how my state, Ohio, will turn out. On one hand, looking at Franklin County and Columbus - heavily Obama. Once you get out of this bastion of enlightenment you get those morons you’ve all seen on YouTube in places like Strongsville and Marysville. On the other hand, I had a conversation on a flight back to Cincinnati last week with a gentleman in his early 60’s. Life long Republican. Voted early and for the first time in his life for a Democrat - Obama.
Sadly, I think if I have to pick Ohio right now I’m going for the ignorant vote carrying the state - McCain wins Ohio.
MeanJoe
Obamasota is solidly blue.
The real drama here is going to center around a couple of prominent Congressional races – namely Coleman V. Franken and Bachman V. Tinklenberg. Hopefully, Barack will have long coattails.
I predict Washington DC’s electoral votes will go to Obama.
I predict that if DC votes for McCain, then McCain will carry every state.
I’m quite confident that Utah will go Obama, but nationally I think the Rocky/Bullwinkle ticket will prevail.
Oooh look! A Chupacabra!
I believe that Ohio will go to Obama by a large enough margin that the networks will be calling it that way by 11 PM at the latest. I think that the networks will be confidently calling the whole election at that point as well.
Hmm. I don’t think McCain will win CA.
We have Prop 8 (a proposition to amend the state Constitution in an effort to define marriage as being between one man and one woman only). I suppose that prop will bring out some of the religious right.
I don’t think it will tip very many votes into McCains bubble, though… (San Diego is using the “color in the bubble” ballots.)