New Hampshire 7:00pm ET
North Carolina 7:30pm ET
Pennsylvania 8:00pm ET
Michigan 9:00pm ET
Illinois 8:00pm ET
Wisconsin 9:00pm ET
Minnesota 9:00pm ET
If Clinton wins NC, she basically has it in the bag at 9:00pm ET without OH or FL or any other swing state (knowing that CA/OR/WA will do it). TV will have to drag out NC and/or NH for 2.5 to 3 hrs if they want to keep the suspense going.
If I had a gun to my head or there was serious money on the line, I’d probably go a little more conservative than this, but this is a serious prediction from me of how I think it reasonably could go. It’s based on a hunch that:
(1) a bunch of discouraged/disgusted moderate Republican men are going to stay home or not vote the top of the ballot;
(2) a bunch of Republican women are going to vote for Hillary even if they have been telling their husbands (and pollsters who call when their husbands are in earshot) otherwise;
(3) Many of Trump’s diehards are going to dismiss the election as “rigged” and not participate;
(4) Polling outfits have been undercounting the blue team (just as they did in 2012) due to more difficulty reaching younger and nonwhite voters;
(5) Latinos and other pissed-off groups are going to be fired up to make a statement against Trump;
(6) Hillary’s extremely sophisticated data and GOTV operation is going to work like a charm, while Trump is going to pay dearly for blowing this off.
56% Clinton
38% Trump
4% Johnson
2% Others
Electoral College: 426 Clinton, 106 Trump, 6 McMullen, as seen on this map.
Oh lordy, I really love your unbridled optimism! I doubt things will go that well (though I agree McMullin will likely take Utah) but at the same time I’m hardly as pessimistic as RickJay is about Florida. So I guess I will wait a while before I make my prediction public. Donald hasn’t done anything to seriously hurt himself in a while so I’m expecting something to come along any day now.
If not, well then I would expect things to tighten up somewhat given the painfully short memories most American have.
Guess I’ll throw my had in the ring…
Clinton: 340. Trump: 192. McMullen: 6.
Map Here. Clinton wins popular 50-43.
Realistically, based on current polling data and the previous 2 or 3 election cycles, it would seem that in the worst case scenario, the race could come down to four states: PA, NC, FL, and OH. That’s the worst case scenario.
I guess the question I keep tossing around in my mind is, how likely is it that Trump sweeps all four states? It’s possible, but not very likely - probably less than a 5 percent chance and probably closer to 1 percent. As Nate Silver points out, though, there’s an ever-so-slight chance that there could be systemic polling error. I’m not a stats geek but I’m guessing that’s his statistical way of saying “There could be something about this race that pollsters aren’t taking into account accurately” Don’t claim to be fully familiar with either Silver or Wang but it seems to me that Silver is hedging more than Wang, and I think that’s wise.
If Clinton has a bad election night, I still think she wins with 278 of the electoral votes. If she has a good night, she might pick up 346. I’m guessing it’ll be somewhere in between, probably around 310 or 320 but not a complete blowout either. Will make a final prediction around November 7.
Right, and these are not like independent flips of coins, as they are going to move (or reflect error) together. This is something Nate Silver points out over and over.
But I don’t see the key firewall states the same as you do, although I do still see four (with one in common with yours). In a worst case (where the polling is “skewed” in Clinton’s favor by about six to seven points), Trump is going to have NC, FL, and OH, easily. NV would also be his. Somewhat surprisingly, there is a discontinuity: after NV (currently seeing a 2.8 point advantage for Hillary), there are no states where she has a lead of three point something, four point something, or five point something. The next closest are CO, WI, PA, and MI: in all four, Hillary has a lead of between 6.4 and 6.6. If she holds all four, she keeps Trump stuck at 266. If she loses any one of them in this scenario, she’s done for. Here’s the map of this scenario, putting those four firewall states in as tossups.
So I think it really comes down to whether you think the polling could possibly be off to such an extent that Trump might win one of those four states (or another that’s almost as close, like MN at 7.3 or NH at 7.5*). Just seems very unlikely to me.
*If NH was the one, it would be a 269-269 tie, but that’s still fatal for Clinton in this scenario.
That’s the McMullin wins the Presidency scenario: Clinton 269, Trump 263, McMullin 6.
I’d note that RCP only gives Clinton 252 electoral votes as a sure thing. That’s your bad night for Clinton scenario.
Also, as of this morning the RCP average is Clinton +4.5 in the 4-way and 538 gives her an 81% chance of winning.
Actually that’s polls-only, polls plus puts her under 80%.
There has been some actual tightening on 538 over the last few days. My concern level will go from “barely there” to “slight” if the polls only goes under 80% and stays there for at least a week up to election day. If it gets under 70%, my concern will go from “slight” to “moderate”.
And The Upshot has her down to 91%! She had been to 93.
HuffPo’s only 98%!
And yeah, PEC is 99%.
Hell to me 1% is anxiety provoking.
Ticking up or down 4 or 5 probability points in the 538 models based on the day’s newest polls is less the issue than how much of a chance there is that the aggregated numbers will be a significant miss. There is some irony in Silver being the voice of not trusting the aggregated numbers as much the others do.
Polling aggregates are not going to suddenly change much in these final days and undecideds and other party preferers are not going to suddenly all move one way or the other. The uncertainty is in predicting turnout and in the possibility that this time patterns will be significantly different.
The prediction I would like to most be judged by, good or bad, rather than my admittedly optimistic specific scenario, is this: Hillary Clinton’s overall margin in the popular vote will be at least a couple points higher than the margin she has in the final poll average. I certainly do not believe there will turn out to have been a polling error in the other direction. That would utterly shock me, even if she still holds on to win the presidency.
FWIW I have and continue to be on record predicting the same thing. Final polling aggregate predictions won’t change much now, somewhere in that 5 to 7 range, unlikely to get back to the longterm average of 4 and unlikely to move up to 8. But the houses being thrown into the mix that are on the low end, using models that expect good turnout for Trump supporters and not as high turnout for those expressing Clinton support are in my mind much more likely off than are those who model Trump’s voting demographics not coming out for him as much as they poll for him.
I’m going with final popular vote number 4ish more Clintonward than the final aggregates call it. Like you I’d be hugely shocked if the aggregates miss it by more than 1 point going the other way.
I don’t think many of these “massive landslide” predictions are based on the objective facts. Trump has 43% of the vote pretty clear and there’s no evidence of any kind that the undecided and third-party-jumpers are all going to Clinton.
81% likelihood of winning seems a bit pessimistic to me, but PEC’s certainty seems stupid, to be honest. If Sam Wang wants to give me 90-1 odds on Trump I’ll take that bet. If I win I’ll invest the money in survival supplies, but it’s a bet I would take without a moment’s hesitation.
For what stakes?
RickJay, if you buy into Silver’s high uncertainty mindset then recognize that that uncertainty cuts both ways. Look at his graphic here to see that 538 gives a 43% chance of what they label a “Clinton blowout” and, at that point, a 27% chance of a victory by 10 or more.
There is more of a chance of a double digit Clinton win in 538’s model than of a Trump win of any sort (including losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. (Which occurs in over 40% of Trump wins scenarios.)
Don’t forget that Obama outperformed the RCP average by over 3 against Romney. 4ish is not a crazy number.
So that graph is basically saying that about half of the Clinton win scenarios are in blowout territory? Seems a reasonable hope then.
That information is in error, according to the Post
With blowout defined by Silver as 8 or more.
And of course it is reasonable. If a model is running about C+6 and it says that there is an 11% chance of Trump having a popular vote win (and another 8% chance of an EV win with a popular vote loss), then, unless one believes that the polls are more likely in aggregate wrong one way over the other, it follows that there is an 11% chance of a Clinton win of 12 points or more.
I agree. Now all that’s left is for RickJay and SlackerInc to set the terms of their wager. 