I don’t say much here often and notice many comments here are pro democrats, that’s cool. I think that the republicans just might take it back though. I do think the “silent majority” will count for more than currently assumed. The republicans could take Ohio and Florida and other key states, could be 270 is achievable.
Trump is back in the game. Polls will be tied by midweek. The problem is that this is a vote suppressor. Who shows up at the polls? Trumps voters will be there - you can bank on that.
Tied? No. We’ve established a pretty good pattern here: Trump will get within 1 or 2, which will make for a very interesting election night and record sales of antacids to Clinton supporters.
Clinton leads by 3.8 now in 4-way. ABC, which had her at a big lead, is showing major tightening, now has her up by only 2 when they had her up by NINE just a few days ago. On the other hand, IBD shows her lead expanding to 4 from down 1 last week.
Nate Silver said that “herding” happens in the last couple of weeks, and that might be what we’re seeing here.
Polls will show a virtual tie by midweek and some credible polls will show Trump with a narrow lead unless there is another major flub by Trump. This is a potentially devastating turn for Clinton’s campaign because it dampens enthusiasm on the left while at the same time energizing Trumps partisans. Moreover, independents may call this race a wash and either sit out or even vote Trump. Gary Johnson has the largest number of independent voters and contrary to what Wang believes, they will not break evenly if they part ways with Johnson. They will either not vote or vote Trump. The one time in the race that Trump actually led was right after the GOP convention after the investigation had just ended. Voters thought it was over and had moved on - now it’s on again and where it leads is pretty vague. Voters are left with a giant question mark.
No comments? Straight dopers are scared. They know I’m right.
People are busy on Saturdays.
Honestly, I think you’re wrong. Hearts are hardened, minds are made up.
Not enough that it can’t still swing the election. We’ve seen things go back and forth by about 5 points, so there’s about 5% of the electorate who reacts to whatever the latest news story is.
Pennsylvania is likely be even more of the key to a Clinton victory than it already was.
Seriously asahi most of us are just tired of rolling our eyes at your predicting every different thing under the sun, from Sanders causing a revolt at the convention onwards.
You can’t not be right because you’ve said everything and back again so many times.
Responding to your … excited … reactions is just not worthwhile. There’s the Cubs collapse to mourn and Black Mirror episodes to watch, Halloween candy to buy.
This election remains how it’s been the whole time: polling has been and will be mostly Clinton +4 +/-3 depending on news cycles. The worst news cycle for Clinton did not get out of that range and the worst one for Trump barely did. The timing of this smokebomb is no doubt very unfortunate but the impact won’t change that.
Addie FWIW 538 PollsOnly has it Clinton +5.5, HuffPo +7.3 … even that 5 (which I see as unrealistic) would not be enough.
I also see the impact as potentially different than some others. A large risk that Clinton had was complacency among her supporters. The perception that it now might be close after all will get them out and some … like you … “never Trumpers” who if it was not close would vote for Johnson … now won’t risk that vote. The polls will by election eve catch the initial response to this smokebomb but, as 538 points out, they are unlikely to capture " the reaction to the reaction" … that is what we will only see on November 8th.
Thing is who is the “silent majority” and who do they prefer? This time the evidence is that the silent majority quietly prefers Clinton.
Eh, not really. Nate pointed out that Trump is doing MUCH better when it’s not a live telephone survey. There could indeed be an unwillingness to admit support with some people who normally wouldn’t like Trump but just can’t stand Clinton. Once you portray support for a major party candidate as a vote for hate(which Clinton has done), then you force a lot of supporters to keep their support anonymous.
If Trump wins, I wonder if Democrats will suddenly be a lot less supportive of anonymous voting?
I’ve got to think that Hillary’s voters are even more motivated. It’s the difference between thinking something is dangerous and knowing it is.
The enthusiasm gap has been rather large in Trump’s favor:
This was back in September, so maybe things have changed, but recent stories like this will tend to incite Trump voters.
Really? You are pushing the shy Trumpster meme again? By now you know there is no evidence for any such thing.
Who is the silent majority?
They are not the people who go to big rallies much. They are neither Trump’s resentfuls nor the Bernie or Bust crowd. They don’t want to burn the whole thing down. They are suburbia more than anyone else. College educated to no small degree and of all colors and ethnicities including White. They are not loud, they are not all that prone to being angry, or rageful, or even very enthusiastic. Too busy with their jobs and kids. But they vote. Quietly and consistently.
No evidence is possible. The polls have a major discrepancy, that’s the only evidence. We won’t know if it’s true for 10 days. If Trump wins, then there’s your explanation.
Skewed!
There’s no skew. The polls say what they say. It’s just that automated tracking polls say one thing and live phone polls another. Although a herding effect is being seen now, so there’s less discrepancy now than there was a few days ago.
As of today, it’s Clinton+3.4. Hmm, what was my prediction again? Clinton+3.
Yeah, I don’t see why everyone assumes this story must be bad for Clinton voter enthusiasm, especially if she manages to convince her supporters that this is a political hit. And that’s not even getting into the shaking of complacency.
There are probably an equal number of partisans. The race comes down to the middle 10 to 20 percent of voters who pride themselves on being non-partisan. A week ago, Clinton could be confident that Trump was too toxic for a majority of these voters to make a difference, particularly given the lack of time to build momentum.
Now we’re in a situation in which there is doubt among these voters. Maybe the emails are harmless duplicates - indeed that is most likely the case. The problem is, try telling that to people who don’t keep up with politics. They track headlines. They don’t really have a strong preference either way.
Clinton’s credentials and experience were her obvious advantage entering the race, but that track record was also a potential disadvantage in a year when voters are anti-incumbent and anti-establishment. Clinton’s campaign banked on the fact that Trump was a flawed candidate - and that played out until last week. Now with the email matters unfinished, the doubts about Clinton remain. The enthusiasm about her candidacy have disappeared. People now know for sure that this will be an issue in her presidency and they might be inclined to vote for more certainty, even though Trump offers a lot of uncertainty as well.
Even through all of this, Clinton appears to have performed well in early voting and she appears to have the support of partisans, both of which are critical. She still probably has an electoral college advantage as we speak. But that’s a much slimmer advantage than what she had before. Election night will be interesting.