Stupid fucking Jon lion art getting dragged in is pissing me off.
I’m sorry.
There were recent reports that soldiers in Belarus didn’t want to fight in Ukraine. I think this attack confirms Belarus needs coaxing to join a losing war.
I would hope they see theough such obvious bullshit. There’s no way Ukraine wants Belarus joining this war
Lol, I would love nothing better than for Putin to goad NATO into Article 5.
There is a big difference between taking something and holding it. We don’t know what, if any plans the Russians had if they actually took Ukraine. My WAG is that they thought Ukraine would surrender early, and all the Russian forces would be doing is holding where ever they stopped while a new Ukrainian puppet government was installed. They may have figured that if they could essentially wipe the regular Ukrainian forces out, the people would rise up and overthrow their tyrannical Nazi government and throw flowers and undying love at Putin and the Russian troops. This, um, hasn’t happened, obviously. It’s clear Putin and his generals vastly underestimated what they would need, as well as the preparedness of their forces, to do the job.
We don’t know what Russia’s original objectives were. We also don’t know exactly what their timetable is or was…or if they have changed it. I haven’t seen any reports of massive reinforcements headed to the area from other parts of Russia, so it seems they plan to do whatever they plan to do with what they essentially have in the field. From what I recall reading this week, they have committed essentially their entire pre-invasion staged force with little if any reserves. My WAG, just based on US defense department statements as well as some reports I’ve seen from other sources is that Russia is getting ready for a final push into Kyiv. Getting back to your point about 200k verse 43 million, Russia might think they have the force to take Kyiv and basically knock out the Ukrainian government…and won’t need to hold down 43 million with whatever is left of their 200k forces alone. They may figure that they have the force to take Kyiv and, perhaps, trap the Ukrainian forces in the east in a pocket and force them to surrender, taking out a good chunk of their professional military…and that this will let them at least halt and reform and reinforce. Or, hell, Putin could be living in a fantasy world where everything is going great and victory is within his grasp.
I’m going to be keeping an eye this weekend to see if Russia in fact does try and push into Kyiv in force. To me, the clock is ticking on all of this, and they need to make some kind of move soon to try and finish off Ukraine or at least deal them a major defeat by taking their capital.
I misread this as ‘Putin and his genitals’.
You didn’t misread that at all…I think Putin is thinking with his genitals, and unsure if he’s really consulting his generals. His genitals seem to hold sway…
Do you think the US is quietly advising the Ukrainian military? Front line Maps and tactics could be analyzed anywhere. There’s no one better to program battle simulations. See the potential outcomes.
Could make a big difference in defending Kiev.
I have never for one moment believed otherwise.
I don’t even think it’s been done quietly.
Absolutely. We’ve been pretty open about sharing intel and satellite data with the Ukrainians, and I’d say we’ve been advising them as well. I know one big point of contention is the US is asserting that Ukrainians don’t really need fixed-wing aircraft, that they should be using and utilizing more of the shoulder-fired weapons we and other NATO allies have been giving them. It does seem that Ukrainian forces have been unusually effective with these weapons and they have made a big difference, both in the ground war but also in the air war, especially against rotary winged aircraft Russia has been employing.
The tank ambush yesterday looked well planned and highly effective.
We only saw a couple minute video. Everyone has been surprised at the Ukrainian military. They appear much better trained.
The rockets are Russia’s biggest tatical advantage. Especially when they’re aimed at apartments buildings, schools, and hospitals. They’re almost impossible to stop because that would require bombing Russia.
I was watching a video yesterday where the Ukrainians hit a convoy of mixed armor and APCs and tanker trucks, with some artillery and even SAM defenses. Anyway, after the battle, the Ukrainians went in to scavenge vehicles and ended up coming out with several tanks. I just wonder…how are they able to ensure their own forces differentiate between their own Russian gear, Russians, and captured Russian gear. I wonder how much blue on blue is happening on both sides.
I would be very surprised if Kyiv proves any easier to take than Kharkiv has been. The Russians have been “pushing into Kharkiv in force” since the day after the invasion started, and they haven’t taken it yet. And I would imagine the logistics for Russian units staged around Kyiv are more fragile than around Kharkiv.
Report late yesterday from the Institute for the Study of War:
Some extracts:
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv.
Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city.
Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours.
There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations
They don’t think that Russia will make any progress towards Kyiv:
Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital.
The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale.
Also:
- Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv.
- A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely.
- Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
- Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled.
- Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.
tl;dr The Russians are screwed.
Yeah, me too. I think it will be a meat grinder, especially as effectively as Ukrainians have been using ATGMs and how poor Russian doctrine seems to be wrt combined arms attacks. And yes, their logistics is definitely stretched supporting operations in the Kyiv region, though that’s mainly the eastern force…I think their logistics wrt coming out of Belarus seem more secure or at least seem to be coming under fewer attacks.
But IF they are going to do anything to try and get some movement in this campaign, they are going to have to push in Kyiv, and they need to do that sooner rather than later. And it seems they have all the pieces in place that they are going to get anyway.
Just to throw cold water on the discussion:
If a western escape route remains open, I wonder how this affects the motivation of the lower ranks on both sides. The defenders have the option of retreating while Russian troops are probably convinced that the only way home is through Kyiv.
The danger for the Russians is that their forces approaching/around Kyiv get cut off from their supply lines and encircled. That would be very very bad for the Russians so I hope this happens.
Well, this is the biggest option we had. What else can be done with economic sanctions?
The real danger now is that as Russia gets increasingly desperate, Putin will use chemical weapons or a tactical nuclear weapon. He may cause a nuclear incident at Chernobyl or one of the nuclear power stations in order to have an excuse to do so.
Is caviar seafood?
ETA - I should have read to the bottom of the article. Apparently it is along with more than a billion dollars worth of other Russian seafood exported to the US.