Here’s the best discussion about a no-fly zone I’ve seen.
It’s by Justin Bronk, who is not only a world-class, highly respected expert on air warfare, but also has a lot of common sense.
He also has something to say about supplying MiGs to Ukraine.
I thought Ukraine was effectively ineligible for membership in NATO until it resolved its territorial disputes (Crimea + Donbas).
The NATO Charter doesn’t state any requirements for a potential member aside from that it must be a “European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area”.
It does, however, state that membership is contingent on unanimous consent of the current member states, so any one member that has an issue with Ukraine’s internal security issues, of which I imagine there could be several, could hold up its joining until the matter is resolved to their satisfaction. Greece, for example, held up Macedonia’s request to join NATO for years until it agreed to change its name to “North Macedonia”.
The first two videos appear to be the same APC from different views. The third is a tank but it seems undamaged and is either being towed or towing something we can’t see.
I wish we could see the entire video on this. Early reports said artillery, but that would have to be one lucky set of hits. Seems more likely to be a well planned anti tank attack by ground troops. Unfortunately, either way they seem to have limited shells/rockets or this could have been a massive Russian loss. I don’t want to sound morbid, but I wish we could see unedited video. It would really help to figure out what’s going on if we saw uncut video with no time lapses.
Especially if Belarusian troops are fighting against Russia, as some Chechen troops are reported to be doing.
Freezing where they are right now will be a no go to Ukraine or the west. I don’t think Russia could even get away with pulling everyone out and just trying to consolidate what they see as the ethnic Russian parts. If they had done that from the get go, I think they may have got away with it. So much depends on the west not backing down.
I’ll have to agree with a lot of that article. I said upthread that it seems like everyone is ignoring just how cut off Putin is from just about everyone. Being surrounded by yes men never ends up well.
I have no idea to what extent either side is using their air force. It seems to be almost non existent.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned that the west could supply would be RPGs, and their ammo. Ukraine has used them and is familiar with how they work. One soldier could carry 10 rockets and the launcher. Much cheaper to use on APCs, trucks and Gaz light armor vehicles. Leave the heavier, more expensive anti tank rockets for tanks. A US company even makes knockoffs.
Well, I suppose it could devolve into civil war in a nuclear-armed nation where opposing factions nuke each other into oblivion but much as it pains me to say it your scenario is rosier.
I think they’d be delighted to do both.
From the vassals they’d get cheap labor and natural resources (the latter especially from Russia). From the west, they get money for selling shit. Win-win for China.
Thanks, this was a good article.
Biden is supposed to announce a new sanction later today. Probably similar to the UK.
Is there a way to read the old Guardian live feed blog? They start a fresh one at least twice a day. It would be nice to read the earlier blog thay I missed.
Exactly Johnny. Not sitting ducks anymore. Though still targets I would imagine.
I hope this is true.
Andrei Soldatov is the editor of Agentura.ru, an association of journalists that is respected in the west.
Christo Grozev of Bellingcat comments:
If Putin is lashing out at the FSB, that will hopefully increase the chances of the FSB getting rid of Putin.
Whatever it takes.
Another general bites the dust! (Freddie Mercury would have approved.)
Ukraine says that Major General Andrei Kolesnikov, Commander of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District was killed in action.
Apparently the 29th Army contains 8 brigades, and they are deployed in the Kyiv area.
It looks like the real assault on Kyiv will be in the next 48 to 96 hours, though it could come as early as sometime tomorrow. The Russians have supposedly addressed their logistics issues to a degree, and are in their jump-off locations, with artillery in position to pound the city. Assuming any of this is true, this should happen this weekend.
Looking at the map, it doesn’t look to have changed all that much. I’m seeing more battle icons from the Belarus force in the northwest, and there is now a battle map saying that forces there have been pushed to within 3 miles of Kyiv, having taken several of the small towns and suburbs along the way. There are also new battle icons from the eastern prong (northeast of the city) that say several villages have been ‘destroyed’ as Russian forces push from that direction. It looks to me as if the southern prong out of Crimea has stalled, assuming the earlier plan was to have it link up with the northwestern prong out of Belarus to cut off the city completely. That hasn’t happened, and they’re still looking to be access to Kyiv from the southwest, though no idea how much the Russians are hitting that area…no battle icon there at least.
This weekend could be the big push by Russia to try and save some of this from a grinding disaster. Or, it could be their last gasp. Or, we could have been underestimating or misinterpreting their actions so far. I think we’ll see a lot happening over this weekend, but if not, I think this will show that Russia really doesn’t have the ability to take Ukraine.
200,000 troops to invade a country of 44m is way too small. The allies used 500k troops in Iraq (similar size population but smaller land area) and in that situation some of the population were supportive and there was air superiority - and it was still difficult.
Concerning the dispersal of the convoy, I heard an American general interview this morning and he said they appeared to be doing what we would consider SOP, by not pausing in an exposed area - like the middle of a road - and getting off to the side under some sort of concealment.
It may be the reason they’ve waited til now is only because the ground froze sufficiently for them to do so without parking hundreds of vehicles in the mud.
I would love to see any confirmation of that. That tweet is mixed in with a lot of garbage and no cite.
Here’s something.
The Russians desperately need support for their stranded column near Kyiv.