An even better game changer would be if the Belarus army sees the writing on the wall and moves in to support Ukarine.
That’s not going to happen barring a full-on revolution. Belarus’ military is not large, has no operational experience and is to some extent under Russian oversight. With Ukraine resisting as stubbornly as they are, they do seem reluctant to to wade in and potentially get a bloody nose. Probably in part because if they started suffering serious losses that would weaken Lukashenko’s praetorian guard.
But they’re way more vulnerable to Russia than Ukraine and are not remotely in a position to take matters into their own hands. Yet, at least.
Interesting info on Belarus from the ISW:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarusian soldiers will not enter Ukraine but continued to falsely claim that Ukraine seeks to drag Belarus into the war on March 15.
Lukashenko claimed on March 15 that Ukrainian forces launched a Tochka-U missile toward Belarusian territory and that Russian and Belarusian forces intercepted the missile over Pripyat, Ukraine, on March 13. Lukashenko framed this missile as evidence of baiting Belarus to participate in the war in Ukraine. Russia may have launched the attack as a false flag to force Lukashenko to join the war against Ukraine; Russian jets likely bombed several Belarusian towns on March 11 to that end. Lukashenko claimed on March 15 that Belarusian forces will not enter the war because Belarus would not be able to make a “unique” contribution to Russian operations.
Putin thought that he had Belarus all neatly wrapped up and already included in his new Russian Empire, under a puppet government. He was wrong about that too.
He desperately needs Belarusian troops in Ukraine, and it looks like he’s tried everything but it’s not working. Lukashenko is tying himself in knots to explain it, but the bottom line is that the Belarusian army won’t fight against Ukraine, no matter what Putin or Lukashenko want.
If (when?) Putin falls, Lukashenko won’t last five minutes, and Belarus will probably follow an independent path similar to Ukraine.
For the leaders of Belarus it’s all about regulating body temperature.
Say what, @Magiver ? I don’t follow …
I think you’re right that Lukashenko must have refused Putin’s call for direct Belarusian military participation. If Russia are launching attacks from Belarus, and yet at the same time calling in soldiers from distant garrisons and from Syria, then there’s no way Putin wouldn’t want Belarus’s military to open up an instant new front to his invasion.
I posted about the possible false flag air strike on March 11th and was a bit surprised the story didn’t seem to lead to anything happening. For Russia to create a false flag operation in coordination with Lukashenko as a fig leaf pretext for Belarus’ entry into the war is one thing, but to carry one out without his tacit approval beforehand would be something else.
As the ISW states, this false flag air strike has not yet been confirmed to have happened.
You know, after decades of ethnic conflict around the world, it’s weirdly heartwarming to see two neighboring countries refusing to fight simply because they don’t hate each other.
It’s becoming famous! 
‘Men, we are surrounded by the enemy. We have the greatest opportunity ever presented an army. We can attack in any direction.’ ― Gen. Anthony ‘Nuts’ McAuliffe, December 22, 1944
Ukraine is a target rich environment. 
Anywhere you shoot, there’s a Russian soldier.
A brave statement of support for Ukraine.
I think Magiver is saying that their prime concern is to keep alive, ie 98 F.
It seems to be daily now that the White House says, “China, don’t you give them any help.” And China says back, “We’re not. We want peace.” The next day, the White House says the same and Beijing says the same.
If China is genuinely not doing anything, it would be real bad for us to be saying that so often and consistent. I don’t see the current government trying to antagonize China for the lols nor for any desire to fight with China nor any desire to raise more sanctions on China so I assume that they know something and China is very baldfacedly lying about the matter.
I hope that they stop whatever it is that they are doing.
You know you’re just a wee bit too tribal when:
- Nothing Trump does bothers you, but Obama in a tan suit sends you into a murderous rage;
- An unjustified invasion of a sovereign nation – costing untold blood and treasure – is a ‘meh,’ but a rather lighthearted and benign diplomatic gesture that strongly condemns your war crimes offends you.
Amazing that we’ve gotten to this place.
But not coincidental:
Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.
–Voltaire
Someone just told Jane Fonda to “Hold my beer!”
I saw on CNN a nice synopsis of Putin’s current demands for peace. Though I don’t remember all of them, and can’t find them online, here are some of them:
-
Ukraine’s neutrality (I don’t recall if this was a separate demand from staying out of NATO)
-
De-nazification
-
Protection of the Russian language
-
Formally ceding Crimea and the two other territories.
IMHO these show just how absurd and vile this Putin adventure is
Well that’s easy to address.
- Ukraine’s army recently engaged in the process of De-nazification. Wish us luck
- Ukraine will choose our own friends and we’ll base it on who DOESN’T attack us.
- Citizens are free to speak any language they want. .
- We’ll concede our land when given a notarized letter from Jesus regarding arctic conditions in hell. But feel free to call for a UN vote if you’re unclear where the world stands on the issue…
More on the demise of the fifth Russian general:
The previous four generals were major generals (one-star), while the most recent was a lieutenant general (two-star).
Maybe the Russian army but in the US army a Major General is two-star, A Brigadier General is one and a Lieutenant General three stars.
This is easy to check and not worth arguing about:
Army general
Генера́л а́рмии
Generál ármii 
OF-9
Colonel general
Генера́л-полко́вник
Generál-polkóvnik 
OF-8
Lieutenant general
Генера́л-лейтена́нт
Generál-leytenánt 
OF-7
Major general
Генера́л-майо́р
Generál-mayór 
OF-6