Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Bill Maudlin was a cartoonist serving in the United States Army in the 45th Division during World War II. He’s most famous for his cartoons depicting two dog faced infantry soldiers named Willie and Joe. In 1945, his book Up Front was published which featured both his cartoons and some observations he made of the war.

One of the things Bill hated was reading in civilian news sources that they weren’t at a war with the Germans but were instead fighting against Hitler and the Nazis. He wrote something like, “Other than a crack SS Division, I didn’t see any Nazis in Italy.” He was of the opinion that they were fighting Germans not just Hitler or the Nazis. i.e. He blamed Germans for the war not just one party or person.

Certainly many German were complicit, but not all Germans were.

We really don’t want to start hate campaigns against anyone anywhere of Russian ethnicity.

Key ISW assessment quote:

I think that this will be a difficult feeling for many people to fight, at a gut level. I, one hand, find myself thinking along the “fuck Russia and Russians for what they’re doing to the world” versus a rational understanding that it’s actually an extremely small percentage of their population responsible for this.

Regardless, I would hate to be an average Russian citizen for the next few years.

yep, that hangover is not going to be pretty

(there are already leg. videos showing up of elderly women fighting in moscow’s supermarkets over bags of sugar)

I have to admit that my first reaction to the invasion was “No one with a Russian passport enters a NATO country…” I realize that was very very misguided, but it was where I was at the time.

And the typical, centuries-long animosities that boggle the minds of a lot of North Americans are only going to get far worse.

Yesterday, at the US-Mexico border:

Yeah, that’s not right. Russian protesters are facing much worse than any protester in the US would (exceptions apply). Asylum? Maybe. Admittance as a tourist, definitely, and a work visa until this passes.

Some Russians who have been leaving have doing so via Georgia, where they haven’t exactly been welcomed with open arms either.

Internally, to Russia, Putin hasn’t been particularly tyrannical. On the world stage, he has supported horrible people, played hardball, etc. Domestically, I think he mostly leaves matters to competent people and the free market, with his contribution being to do the occasional “big thing” for people - bringing in a big sports game, building a new, giant church, etc.

The picture is radically different. There’s not a lot of people who have a negative image of the guy. The idea that he’s best friends with mafia and is hardcore on assassinations isn’t in the mind of the average Russian.

Not just in the US. Vandalism at a Russian Community Centre in Kitsilano:

Yes, as Haurer’s next tweet makes clear:

Of all the major cities under attack, Kharkiv had the largest Russian-speaking population, but that means nothing to Putin’s plans to “liberate” Russian-speakers in the “fake country” of Ukraine.

Putin’s war is having exactly the opposite effect he planned. It has deflated the reputation of the Russian Army and increased military spending by the West, particularly Germany. And the horrible treatment of Russian-speakers in Ukraine is likely doing more to make them identify with Ukraine than could have been imagined a month ago. He’s helping to solidify a Ukrainian national identity, the complete opposite of his theory that Ukraine is part of Russia.

By their standards, I suppose. I would not be surprised if at any point you did a Russian-in-the-street survey to the effect of “can Russia be effectively governed except by a strong, hard ruler who’ll put people in their place” and you got a majority for “no other way”.

But yeah, truth is he has not given the average Russian-in-the-street a good reason to risk everything opposing him, and just enough reasons to shush up and keep his head down.

The part in those reports that’s aspecially disturbing is that about the Russoukranians who communicate with relatives back in Russia proper, and those relatives answer to them with straight propaganda lines or denials or accusations that they are the ones lying. I can only hope that it is just a case of their being scared of who could be listening in and code-switching back to the old ways.

Ukraine is claiming that Russia is forcibly taking Ukrainians back to Russia.

What next? Will they be marched in chains at Putin’s triumph?

If that was done publicly it would quicken Putin’s departure.

If this turns out to be correct, it’s pretty obvious that Russia is taking civilians for hostages.

I am starting to think that Putin WANTS the west, particularly NATO to be drawn into the war. I really think he may be simply committing suicide by cop. Except nuclear weapons will be used.

I am wondering about health issues. If he’s dying, why not take the world with him?

It would play to his ego. "look how powerful I am. I destroyed the entire world.

Plus, as a sociopath, he probably does not care what happens to anyone else after he’s dead anyway.