Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

So any chance we can arrange to get several semi trucks loaded with Vodka “accidentally” captured by the Russian forces?

It might be time for a new chapter…

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance.

Aerorozvidka has been forced to resort to crowdfunding and a network of personal contacts in order to keep going, by getting hold of components such as advanced modems and thermal imaging cameras, in the face of export controls that prohibit them being sent to Ukraine.

“This one little unit in the night destroyed two or three vehicles at the head of this convoy, and after that it was stuck.

A handful of drone hobbyists on quad bikes, who bought equipment through crowd funding, save Ukraine… there’s definitely a movie in this!

:smile:  

Why would any Western company return to doing business in Russia for the foreseeable future?

No, but they wreck stuff and kill people, which seems to be Russia’s war plan for the last couple of weeks.

Zing!!!

Who could we get to star as a geeky 25 year old IT nerd with broken glasses held together with tape and a terrible wardrobe? I hear Arnold want’s the role and they’ll use de-aging FX to make him appear younger. Plus, he’s already got an accent. Austrian/Ukrainian - it’s close enough for Hollywood.

Why indeed. By this time, I imagine the Russians have seized everything right down to the last french fry basket at McDonalds.

Decisions, decisions. One of the great questions of our times: Freeze to death without booze or freeze to death with booze. Oh, who am I kidding, give me the booze.

To paraphrase my good friend Freewheelin’ Franklin: Booze will get you thru times of no fuel for your tank, better than fuel for your tank will get you thru times of no booze.

I wonder if that’s what he wanted all along?

I have been thinking about this on and off …

I assume a certain percentage of the russian army are alcoholics (actual number up for debate, but 10, 20 or 30% does not sound unreasonable as a ballpark)

… that fact might have a lot to do with the low morale, inability to fight and all that … IOW there must be 10s of thousands of russian soldiers “full cold turkey” over the past weeks - and not exactly feeling like fighting …

that is probably a somewhat “underreported” aspect of the russians inability to perform…

I can’t guess at the numbers, but the alcoholics are more likely to be the officers and NCOs than the kid conscripts. So that makes the impact of your thought even tougher on the Russian army.

hmmm … I was a conscript (30 years ago, albeit not in russia :wink: ) … and the number of conscripts with alcohol problems was not trivial … bear in mind the conscripts also come from a pro-vodka culture and have been submerged for 1 year now in the army … where you learn to drink like a real man

also nikotin withdrawal might show similar numbers (I see lots of people smoking in those Ukr. video snipplets) …

IMO drugs and especially alcohol have played such a massive part in world history but historians tend to overlook it as a factor because it’s there’s very little tangible evidence.

Alexander the Great was said to said by one of his peers to drink to “barbaric excess". How would the world be different even if that one man didn’t have access to drink?

My experience was the kids were more likely to overindulge and do stupid things being in the 18-21 year old age range mainly. But we hadn’t become alcoholics yet. So more like no shortage of college kids, away from home for the first time. The bulk of the alcoholics would be the guys that had reupped at least once.

My time was 35 years ago US Navy though.

The military used to include cigarettes in rations because nicotine calms anxiety in people under stress. Russia may still include cigarettes in rations

That is mostly Tobacco Company marketing. In WWI and WWII the Tobacco companies made a concerted effort to get the young men in the military smoking to make lifetime customers. Any calming effects were secondary.

If he has his way, all of Ukraine will be a mine-filled wasteland buffer between him and NATO.

Isn’t Ukraine known for its grain production? I think Russia wants that, as well as easy and full access to Crimea / the Black Sea.

My off-the-wall suggestion on a settlement: Allow Russia to keep the Donbass region and establish that ground link to Crimea. That lets Russia claim their stated goal of “de-nazifying” that region.

In return, Ukraine gets to join NATO. (As I understand it, one of the major reasons they weren’t eligible was the ongoing civil issues in the Donbass – which would go away, since Russia would own that region.)

Of course, the next multinational geopolitical treaty I negotiate will be first one, so I probably don’t know what I’m talking about.

Pretty much the idea in Red Heat (where they kept going on about how his character was from Kiev), although the actual results left something to be desired in both English and in Russian.

You’re out of touch with what Hollywood thinks is cool these days - they’ll probably cast skinny kids like Timothee Chalamet and Tom Holland who will make the actual Ukrainian nerds look like Arnold in comparison.

(And that’s if we’re lucky - if we’re not, they’ll just cast Jesse Eisenberg).

That would have been a good idea before the war, as long as it was a self-executing treaty, meaning Russia could not take the region and then threaten Ukraine again when the NATO admission was about to become official a year later.

Now, the war has make the Donbass more pro-Ukrainian, so it is not clear that ceding them to Russia would be in the peoples best interest, and we also don’t want to reward aggression, especially failed aggression that could plausibly suffer a future reverse.

Now, officially releasing claims to just Crimea in return for NATO membership might be more doable, since the populace there is more pro-Russian, but as of now, Putin wouldn’t want to trade de jure acceptance of a de facto occupation in return for NATO membership, but that’s on him.

There’s absolutely no way the Ukrainians would willingly cede the whole of the Donbas to Russia, and there’s absolutely no reason they should do so.

In my head, I was thinking there’d be a period of resettlement in the Donbass, overseen by the UN, so pro-Ukrainian folks could move out and pro-Russian folks could move in (if they wanted). Granted, that sucks for the Ukrainian folks who call the Donbass home, but that’s gotta be better than an ongoing war (or low-intensity civil war).

I honestly believe Russia is on its way to becoming a glorified version of a third-world country regardless. Letting them “win” in the Donbass takes away almost every kinda-remotely-plausible-if-you-squint-and-hold-your-head-at-just-the-right-angle reason for their aggression.

On the flip side, Ukraine as a NATO member would have access to previously unavailable defensive assurances, and I could see European and other countries bending over backwards to help them rebuild and recover. I think they’d quickly become a significant thorn in Russia’s side by comparison, even more so than they were before the war began.

In five or 10 years, you’d have a thriving democratic country enjoying all the benefits of Western civilization, butting up against a third-world country that “got what it wanted” and is poorer than a church mouse as a result.

It would be East Germany / West Germany all over again. And although it took 40 years, that had a happy ending.