Of course not, or they wouldn’t have dug. But their ignorance wasn’t due to deliberate Russian misinformation about the danger. Russian media wasn’t disputing that part of the HBO show.
That assumes that Russia really believes that Ukraine joining NATO is an existential threat. More likely, Russia views Ukraine joining NATO as Ukraine passing irretrievably beyond the Russian sphere of influence. Although given Russian paranoia and the habitual thinking of authoritarian regimes, that might be considered an existential threat.
I lean towards the opinion that both are important. That the prevailing Russian leadership zeitgeist honestly is that of a paranoid fear of being encircled AND they resent any opposition to them being a regional hegemon.
It makes for a twitchy, violent neighbor. Like a super-territorial, shy-sharp (i.e. fear biter) dog.
It really does need to pointed out more that Russia joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in 1994 and was on the record as an aspiring NATO member until 2014.
Ukraine joined at the same time.
You can’t really complain that NATO is out to get you when you’re in line to join up.
If they stage a strong comeback, Ukraine should try to hit strategic targets in Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar districts to weaken Russia’s position in Donbas and reassert their claim to Crimea, but strikes into Russia need to be done judiciously to avoid getting the Russians too much more firmly behind Vladdy.
Major book spoiler for Hugh Laurie’s The Gun Seller:
In the book, the main character gets roped into investigating (and then being a part of) a manufactured terrorist conspiracy created to allow an arms manufacturer to test a new type of attack helicopter on the “terrorist cell” in front of the media, to drum up sales.
The protagonist, having figured this out, smuggles a Javelin missile onto the scene and shoots down the helicopter. As a result, the sale of Javelins go way up.
Reducing oil supplies to Russia’s troops is crucial for Ukraine’s survival. There’s strong evidence Russia is regrouping and organizing for new offensives.
Imho Small, carefully planned strikes in Russian border regions should be expected. Especially when compared to the outrageous scorched earth policy Russia uses in Ukraine.