Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

The headline is a bit misleading. This force is used to provide internal security for Russia, so yes, they are soldiers but they’re not a regular part of the Russian army. They’re mainly used to suppress revolts (so they are not good people), provide protection services for politicians, protect state facilities, etc.

So what’s odd here is:

  1. That Russia is ordering them to Ukraine.
  2. That they’re refusing the order (again, these are not good people).

I think it really highlights the state of the ground forces in Ukraine. Are they aware of the situation in Ukraine and hence refusing to go? If they thought Russia was winning, then why refuse the order? Also, if Russia is starting to pull troops from internal security, then this is really bad for Russia. Again, it speaks to the lack of men and material on the front line, and starts to open up the possibility of internal revolt. A while back I posted that there are only so many assets can move to the front before they would have to use forces that are used to maintain internal order. I honestly did not think they would start to call on such reserves, since preserving the state should be highest priority. So this move surprises me.

Kind of a chicken/egg thing:
If things were going well, they wouldn’t need to move them but probably could because unrest would be relatively low.
If things are going badly, they need the troops but it is dangerous to move them because they are already apparently seeing mutiny issues (including apparently even in the forces in charge of suppressing mutiny/revolt).

There’s also the fact that signing up to oppress unarmed civilians is a bit different than signing up to attack people who can shoot back.

Bullies hate it when people shoot back.

These kinds of scum soldiers are exactly the guys I’d expect to cut and run in a real war.

"But the war is not over — there will be even more terrible Battle of Donbas.
No time for joy yet." really sums things up.

Hopefully discipline and morale continue to break down for the Russians.

The Russians seem to be seriously withdrawing from the Kyiv area.

From liveuamap:

Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine restored control over the settlements of Demydiv, Dymer, Lytvynivka, Havrylivka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Hlybivka, Yasnohorodka, Talakun, Sukholuchcha, Lypivka, Gavronshchyna, Makovyshche, Mykolaivka, Khmilna, Kyiv region.

After the enemy withdrew, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took control of the settlements of Rudnya, Shevchenkove, Bobryk, Stara Basan, Nova Basan, Makeyevka, Pogreby, Bazhanivka, Volodymyrivka, Shnyakivka, Salne, Sofiyivka, and Gavrylivka.

They’ve pulled back about 50 miles east of Kyiv, and the governor of Chernihiv says that Russian forces are withdrawing from the city.

…but they left mines around a confectionary factory and poisoned the cookies: :slightly_frowning_face:

In Bucha, the occupiers mined the territory of the Delicia confectionery factory and poisoned malt cookies, the factory administration said.

That just means they’re looking out for themselves, and likely believe that if they go to Ukraine that they probably won’t come back, unlike a day of suppressing unarmed civilians.

Exactly.

They’ll have to settle for “grim satisfaction”.

That’s beginning to look like the start of an actual withdrawal. Sure, they’re likely repositioning and regrouping.

That map hasn’t been updated yet, especially west of Kyiv.

Maybe they don’t want to slaughter Ukrainian civilians.

Conflicting reports from Ukraine.
Some are tweeting big gains, Russians retreating
Klitschko says there’s massive fighting.

Guardian live blog

More on fighting near Kyiv. Posted 15 minutes ago. This may be a last FU attack by the Russians as they withdraw.

Guardian blog

Here’s another map. It shows the liberated Ivankiv to the north-west of Kyiv, a crucial supply nexus to the Bucha-Irpin-Hostomel area. Its capture encircles the “Bucha pocket”, although there may not be many, if any, Russians left in the encircled area.

Of all things Russia has done, choosing to prove that you can have your cookies but you can’t eat them, too, is possibly the least necessary.

‘Moscow accuses Ukraine of conducting airstrike inside Russia.’ So? What do they expect when they start a war? That the country they attacked would just roll over and welcome them as liberators? Oh, wait… That IS what they expected.

That’s why Putin didn’t start a war. Remember, it’s a “special military operation”, only taking place in Ukraine. Striking a target inside Russia is obviously against the rules, hence the Russian indignation…

These guys don’t mind slaughtering Russian civilians. I don’t think they would balk at killing Ukrainian civilians.

From a CNN video referring to the fuel depot attack (that I can’t watch at work) “Ukrainian attack in Russian city is one of Biden’s 'worst nightmares” Why? It might make Russia mad?