Military analyst on Twitter makes the point that the US really needs to critique its own intelligence failures that greatly overestimated Russian military capabilities.
I’d rather intelligence services overestimated threats than underestimated them.
Me too, but even better would be accurately estimating adversaries’ abilities. This doesn’t strike me as a small intelligence failure (in terms of Russian capabilities – our estimation of Russian intentions was spot on); this was a very large failure. We thought Kiev would be overrun in days, and Ukraine wouldn’t last much longer than that. We were way, way off.
Intelligence reports don’t account for human nature, stubbornness, or sunflower seeds being put into soldier’s pockets.
I mean, they should. Intelligence reports aren’t just about what equipment an army has and where it’s going, there should also be an assessment of morale, training, and willingness to fight. The US intelligence services have severely underestimated the importance of human factors both in Ukraine and in Afghanistan.
For clarity, who is the “we” you’re referring to? I mean, I thought the eastern half of Ukraine would be more-or-less under Russian occupation within a week, but I’m just some slob on the internet. What did the government actually expect?
The idea that western intelligence over-estimated the Russian military is too convenient. First, the services get more funding when threats are large and imminent–there’s pressure to exaggerate. Second, the services don’t want their adversaries to know how accurate the intelligence is–there’s pressure to obfuscate what they know. I’m skeptical about any public reports.
Ukrposhta, the Ukrainian national postal service, is apparently now selling a commemorative edition of the “Russian warship, fuck off” stamp (as confirmed on their official Facebook page), with proceeds going to the Ukrainian military and relief efforts. I tried to confirm on their official website myself, but the online store is down because of all the traffic 
They do have an English site, so keep an eye on it and you should be able to buy a set eventually if you’re interested.
Concerning the conflicting stories about the Moskva’s demise, we’re seeing some compelling evidence to support the Ukrainian claim that it was indeed their missiles that sunk the vessel.
Russia Moves Ships to Safer Location After Ukraine Missile Attack (newsweek.com)
If the ship caught on fire as a result of some error or mishap as the Kremlin’s narrative suggests, why would they now be moving all their other vessels farther away from Ukrainian shore-based anti-ship missile batteries?
The incompetent Russian fleet cannot adequately protect its ships from experiencing fires and subsequent ammunition explosions.
Leaving these vessels near shore, marinas, or population centers could put innocent lives (and pleasure craft) at risk.
And the Russians definitely don’t want that.
/s
I find it impressive that Russia declares the Moskva died peacefully of natural causes and simultaneously declares revenge will be swift and deadly.
I would guess that this would be a bit like criticizing sports analysts for failing to see the 2007 Michigan vs. Appalachian State upset coming, or failing to predict that the 1980 American hockey team would beat the Soviets in the Miracle on Ice.
On the surface, the analysts had every reason to think Michigan or the Soviets would win. To predict an Appalachian State or USA victory would have required something akin to mind-reading, to ascertain the level of psychological performance within.
Although, yes, some tangible things like corruption, poor maintenance etc in the Russian military should have been visible and noticeable.
The US National Security Advisor is making a similar point. Do we know, does he post here at all? 
I don’t think that’s accurate. I think the expectation was a quick victory from the massive Russian army, but that’s not the same as Ukraine “rolling over”.
Man Vs. Nature: The Road to Victory
But what doesn’t seem to have been known was the level of preparedness of the Ukraine military. Just for instance, their upgrades to the Neptune missiles that took out Moskva. They were ready for this invasion and obviously had a well-planned response.
If I’m remembering correctly, that gauge decision dates back to the Russian Empire, and was a conscious defensive measure, to prevent the German Empire from being able to run military trains into Russian territory in the event of a war.
The ability to do that was discussed at length by one George Orwell without explicitly mentioning its name.
You can buy that stamp here for 23 rph, whatever that means.
From the annals of “Well, you could knock me over with a feather …” comes this:
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine-washington-post-2022-04-15/
Again: I’m glad this one isn’t on my desk to manage.
Sounds more like a plea than a threat.