Unpredictable consequences…for Russia?
How about we keep helping Ukraine and experience the completely predictable outcome?
Meh. From the NYT live blog:
Officials said the note did not prompt any special concern inside the White House. But it has touched off a broader discussion inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about whether the “unpredictable consequences” could include trying to target or sabotage some of the weapons shipments while they are still in NATO territory, before they are handed off to Ukrainians for the final leg of their journey into the hands of Ukrainian troops.
Probably a good idea to keep an eye out for Russian sympathizers in those areas who might try to pull something.
Also note: that little nastygram from Russia wasn’t signed by anyone!
Why would Ukraine or any western intelligence service make such an assessment public? The only value would be as deterrence, and I doubt Russia believes anything that their enemies make public.
They need to be spaced farther apart to avoid spreading fires.
The Pentagon now confirms that Ukrainian anti-ship missiles destroyed the Moskva.
Ukraine sunk the ship and the sailors went home safe. This is the opposite of Putin’s war of civilian atrocities. He needs to read up on the last chapters of Hitler and Mussolini. His own people will take him down.
So far, there’s not a lot of evidence that more than a few dozen sailors were rescued. It’s possible that more were saved and Russia is just being secretive. But conditions were stormy, and an ammo explosion is no small thing to live through… so the odds that most of the crew were rescued seem slim.
Of course, that’s not on Ukraine at all.
Ukrainian sources claim the captain of the Moskva perished with his ship.
Meaning, “We don’t know if we’ll win or not if you keep giving the Ukrainians weapons.”
That would be Ukrainian hryvnias, the national currency. But I’m not about to provide my credit card information to a non-secure website with a Ukrainian domain extension. I’ve used the official Ukrposhta website before with no problems (I happened to buy a gift for my husband from a Ukrainian Etsy artist a few months ago, and the tracking function worked fine). I can wait until the official site is functioning properly.
UPDATE: it looks like this is the official Ukrposhta online store, which is now functioning sporadically. All the same, I am not crazy about using a non-secure website under the circumstances.
If they had time to take the ship in tow, it is unlikely any sailors were still aboard when it sank. In other words, the fatalities would be from the explosion and fire; not the sinking.
Not so sure about that. If the ship had rolled onto its side due to flooded compartments, there must have been areas of the ship that were blocked off, with the crew unable to escape. Maybe they could have been rescued with scuba divers and other equipment–but not during a storm, and not that quickly.
Even among those that escaped the ship, many could have drowned due to not making it to a lifeboat, the lifeboat capsizing, etc.
I’m watching ABC evening news right now, and they say the captain and 400 sailors are missing. I sure hope Putin is beginning to regret starting this thing.
If it rolled they wouldn’t have been able to tow it. There were certainly drones in the vicinity recording the whole thing. We’ll see it someday.
Capsized ships get towed all the time. Sure, you’ve got a high risk of the thing flooding and sinking… but there you go.
In that sort of situation, how does the towing ship stay safe? If the ship being towed goes down suddenly, couldn’t that pull the towing ship down with it?
Quick release towing hook:
Yeah, that’s the safe bet.
A couple of weeks ago, I watched a round table presentation held at West Point, and one of the participants had spend considerable time as part of the US efforts at training the Ukrainian army. He said that he wasn’t surprised at their performance.
Of course, the intelligence agencies would have to be aware of those reports.
I wonder if the greatest surprise is the Russian air force being MIA. They have the raw numbers but without the ability to degrade the Ukrainian AA capabilities, it makes the ground battle that much more difficult.
Low-resolution radar satellite image of the stricken Moskva, with other vessels around it. It’s around 93 km (58 mi) from the Ukrainian coast and 55 km (34 mi) from Snake Island.
