The table itself was weirdly intimate, like he wanted to compensate for the giant table he was pictured at before.
I’m starting to think that tables are one of the many things that Putin simply doesn’t understand.
Which is probably why he’s surprised and distressed when the tables turn on him.
I don’t think anyone posted a link to the actual video, or maybe I missed it.
This is a 30-second clip:
It looks like it should have a Pac Man monitor built into the top.
Apologies.
I’m disappointed and frustrated that Sanctions don’t appear to work. Russia keeps ratcheting up their forces. The brutality keeps getting more extreme. A three to one advantage is extremely concerning.
Interesting analysis. Seems fairly balanced. The grim reality is the high casualties on both sides will be appalling.
The rumor that’s been going around is that Putin has Parkinson’s. In that clip with Shoigu, it looks like he’s trying to hold himself still.
Sanctions are a long-term strategy. Ones targeted toward the oligarchs don’t appear to be very effective, historically speaking–they can still get their luxuries elsewhere. But broad spectrum sanctions that impede a country’s ability to manufacture war materiel and generally damage their economy will have some effect. Not in under two months, though.
Agreed, more or less. But some oligarchs – like the ones that have had their mega-yachts or Italian villas seized – are pretty hopping mad. As for war materiel, Russia may well be running short of some weaponry while Ukraine continues to be resupplied. But yes, the effect of sanctions will only get worse over time, and it appears that even more are getting imposed all the time. This is not like the weak sanctions of the past – this is pretty much a total lockout.
Tables of Organization & Equipment chief among them.
A big question is, Is Russia getting ground down or has it fallen back to an effort it can sustain for the foreseeable future? Unless Russia is literally running out of tanks and rockets and/or its troops are on the verge of mutiny, I don’t see Ukraine being able to push Russian forces out of the east or south. To be sure, Ukrainian morale will remain high in the face of an existential threat but how long can that last?
True enough. But an authoritarian’s power is a subtle thing. His power base can accept quite a lot before revolting–because the penalty for losing is death. So they are only going to revolt unless they are very sure they have enough support amongst themselves, and that they are likely to remain in the same position after the coup. It’ll take a lot more than some seized yachts to get to that point.
The oligarchs have their own power base to worry about, of course–especially the more mafia-oriented ones. So some of them may have to face their own revolutions if things get too bad and they can’t distribute their wealth. But again, I think things have to get much worse before that’s a real risk.
All it would take is a small group of wealthy people who think Putin is going to destroy the entire country. You can buy a pretty large assassin squad for a billion dollars.
Russia is running out of manpower, especially trained professional soldiers. They are pretty much at peacetime level of conscription, because they aren’t in a war - they’re in a “special military operation”. Ukraine, on the other hand, have declared martial law and all adult males between the ages of 18 and 60 are forbidden from leaving the country. Many of them are being trained and will be combat-ready in a few months.
Russia has more than three times the population of Ukraine, so they have a lot of potential manpower they could draw upon were Putin to decide that this is actually a war, and he could raise the level of conscription. This could have potential repercussions for him, though, in terms of his popularity at home, and it would take workers away from a struggling economy. In any case, new recruits would take several months to train, so it would be some time before they could have an impact on the battlefield.
In this respect, the number of professionally-trained Ukrainian soldiers should continue to grow in the coming months, while Russia’s will likely only decrease. Even if Putin were to start general conscription in Russia tomorrow, Ukraine would be ahead of them in training by a month or so, so there would be a window of superior numerical advantage for Ukraine on the battlefield. Hopefully, this period of time will continue to grow. With the Allied powers providing weapons, the potential of the Ukraine manpower advantage can be maximized.
The major attack phase of the Russians’ Donbas offensive does not appear to have begun yet. It seems to be small-scale probing attacks, with little territory changing hands. Putin’s declaration of victory today in Mariupol should free up some troops to join the southern part of the Russian pincer, but not as many as if they had truly conquered the city. Probably the battle will start in earnest in the coming days.
Or Battleships?
Here’s an encouraging development.
A billion would be my starting price for Putin, if that low. If I were an assassin. Which I’m not.
I view the war the same way. Ukraine doesn’t have the offensive weapons to push Russia out of the East. NATO still isn’t sending enough to push Russia back.
Meanwhile the rockets on Kyiv and other cities are steadily wearing down public support. Ukraine’s farmers can’t plant crops and there’s no safe ports for shipments.
NATO still doesn’t recognize this aggression won’t stop in Ukraine. Russia combined with Ukraine will be a daunting adversary for NATO within a few years.
I admire the Ukrainians and what they’ve achieved against Russia. Given the right weapons they could retake the cities lost in the past few weeks. At least restore their pre-war borders.