Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

I have to imagine that Putin is pretty worried about bringing the boys back home. Especially if there isn’t any money to pay them.

That population is now mostly 60+ years old. I’m personally hoping that, as they see things going back to the old times and get re-familiarized with what it was actually like (as opposed to their nostalgia for that era) and see their children and grand-children starting to be bullied and intimidated by the government and police - to ignore that they’re not getting paid, to serve the thugs in some way, to roll over on each other, etc. - the elderly will tell the younger generation that they should push back and not accept it.

I don’t know if that will happen.

Only incidental to the war, but I didn’t want to start a new thread for it.

Kommuna is a submarine salvage ship in service with the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet. A double-hulled catamaran, she was laid down at the Putilov Factory (now the Kirov Factory) in St. Petersburg in November 1912 as Volkhov . The ship was launched the following year, and commissioned on 14 July 1915.

<snip>

In April 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ship was deployed after the sinking of the guided missile cruiser Moskva .[4] The Moskva sank 80 miles (130 km) off the coast from Odessa in 45 to 50 metres (148 to 164 ft) of water.[5][6] The size of the Moskva , which sank in one piece, makes bringing it to the surface impractical. Kommuna will reportedly assist in recovering weapons, bodies, and other sensitive material that foreign powers might be interested in.

Well, come on all of you, big strong men
Uncle Vlad needs your help again
He’s got himself in a terrible fuss
Way down yonder in Donbas
So put down your books and pick up a gun
We’re gonna have a whole lotta fun

And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, upon my soul
Next stop is Mariupol;
And it’s five, six, seven
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why

Whoopee! we’re all gonna die

Well, come on generals, let’s move fast;
Your big chance has come at last
Now you can go out and get those reds Ukrainian nazis
'Cause the only good commie Ukrainian nazi is the one that’s dead
And you know that peace can only be won
When we’ve blown 'em all to kingdom come

Come on mothers throughout the land
Pack your boys off to a neighboring land
Come on fathers, and don’t hesitate
To send your sons off before it’s too late
And you can be the first ones in your block
To have your boy come home in a box

What applies re: US naval presence in the Black Sea. Sure, Russia would decry it. But if Russia clearly pulls its troops back to the east, couldn’t the US - or other nations - send ships to allow trade to Odessa/Ukraine?

And wouldn’t you assume a hell of a lot of the weaponry pouring into Ukraine is piling up East of Odessa?

Recent news claims more Russian aircraft and armored vehicles destroyed; I think this more than anything will decide the war. The Kremlin probably doesn’t give a damn how many men it loses, and presumably shells and bombs are cheap. But if Ukraine can continue to destroy expensive war machines faster than Russia could hope to replace them, at some point the war will become unsustainable for Russia.

I suspect some people assumed the Russians would stay permanently. Getting in good with the new overlords seemed like a smart move. Ukrainian law enforcers search for collaborators who helped Russians

I expect not all of them survived to be arrested. I imagine some of the survivors are… angry at those collaborators. Very, very angry.

The next day or so could be important on the battlefield. The Russian invaders have advanced a bit further to the south of the city of Izyum. It looks like they are pushing in a gap between the town of Barvinkove to the west and a forested area to the east. This 10 km-wide open-spaced gap is more suitable terrain for their tanks and armoured vehicles, and with less risk of ambush by infantry anti-tank weapons from the flanks. The invading forces are now about five miles or so from the last remaining rail line to the easternmost area of Ukrainian control in the Donbas.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have made an advance to the northwest of Izyum, threatening supply lines to the city and the forces to its south.


Map: liveuamap.com

Ranges of some infantry anti-tank weapons in Ukrainian use:

NLAW (UK): 1,000 m
Javelin (US): 2,500 m
Stugna (Ukraine): 5,000 m

The Stugna/Skif appears to have been very successful.

Video of Stugna taking out four tanks/armoured vehicles in a row:

Video of a Stugna destroying tank at 4.5 km range:

Less of an issue every day. Especially with regard to the senior officers.

This is weird.

https://nitter.eu/pic/media%2FFRM8n6rXEAAZao1.png%3Fname%3Dsmall

The order to include SIM cards in the assassin’s gear was clearly misinterpreted and instead copies of the game The SIMS was included.

https://nitter.eu/pic/media%2FFRPGjdYWYAAFFLR.jpg%3Fname%3Dsmall

One assumes they were supposed to buy SIM cards. At this point I can’t tell what’s real and what’s parody any more.

Also:

:face_with_spiral_eyes:

Maybe the rumors of intransigence in the Russian security services have some validity.

Stupid Russian idea of the day?

The Onion apparently took over U.S. politics a few years back; now it seems to be expanding worldwide.

Here’s the image for that:

While this particular bit of debris was misidentified, other photos indicate that the Russians did appear to have shot down a Bayraktar drone over Russian territory. It was likely returning from attacking the oil depots in Bryansk a couple of days ago. Still, a small loss for the Ukrainians in what was otherwise an operational success.

So, in addition to attacking it, it also raided it for supplies? That’s an advanced drone!

Sound like that story going around a few years ago where a cafe in China wanted to translate its name into English so went to an online translation site and made up a sign, 504 Gateway Timeout.

Transnistria in the news again.

Yesterday:

Today:

This bridge is the only road crossing to southwestern Ukraine within Ukrainian territory. There is speculation that Russian and Transnistrian separatist forces might attack this area from the north, possibly combined with an amphibious attack from the sea.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRRITizXMAIuF76?format=jpg&name=900x900