Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

@Paul_was_in_Saudi

Any bets on the Victory Day parade and speech?

Double down? Declare victory and pull out? Car bomb? Cancellation?

Announce total war against Ukraine

[Alessan]

@Gyrate

The rather dark upside to this is that after the war the fascist contingent is likely to be greatly reduced from its pre-war levels.

A delay to the Russian invasion with a major drain on their resources, AND dead Nazis? Sounds like a win-win to me.

[Machine_Elf]

@aceplace57

The Soviets did an excellent job building the bunkers under the steel works plant.

What was the original purpose of that underground network?

[Cardigan]

The only thing for certain at this point is they won’t be announcing a withdrawal.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Alessan

A delay to the Russian invasion with a major drain on their resources, AND dead Nazis? Sounds like a win-win to me.

If you’re referring to the Azov Battalion, and not the Russian fascist invaders, then remember that there are other Ukrainian forces there too, including Naval Infantry, Ground Forces and Territorial Defense Forces.

@Machine_Elf

What was the original purpose of that underground network?

I’ve read that the underground bunkers were built during the Cold War to protect the plant’s workers in the event of nuclear war.

[Velocity]

Ukraine’s Alamo here. Buying everyone else time while dying a martyr death.

[Alessan]

@Walken_After_Midnight

If you’re referring to the Azov Battalion, and not the Russian fascist invaders, then remember that there are other Ukrainian forces there too, including Naval Infantry, Ground Forces and Territorial Defense Forces.

Them, I wish a long life - although at this point that’s not looking likely.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Ukrainian forces switch from defense to counter-offense.

The Kyiv Independent

The Ukrainians have been liberating areas to the north of Kharkiv for the past few days. The counter-offensive to retake Izyum will be a significant battle in the war.

[Ulfreida]

@JRDelirious

It’s a well-tested book. And in the case of Russia, on top of that it had already been a very long standing phenomenon, reached for by both czarist and communist regimes at different times.

Yes. It’s how my Odessa grandmother ended up in Brooklyn, orphaned by the pogroms.

[Velocity]

Looking forward to the part where Putin orders Steiner to counterattack…

Seriously, I would like Ukraine to end this war with not only restoration of all its pre-2014 borders, but even a few thousand square miles of Russian territory, as a war prize.

[Akaj]

@Velocity

I would like Ukraine to end this war with not only restoration of all its pre-2014 borders, but even a few thousand square miles of Russian territory, as a war prize.

That last part seems unlikely, but how about a 10-mile wide DMZ on what’s currently Russian territory, enforced by the UN?

[aceplace57]

@Walken_After_Midnight

The Ukrainians have been liberating areas to the north of Kharkiv for the past few days. The counter-offensive to retake Izyum will be a significant battle in the war.

I think Arestovych is referring to a major counter offensive to push Russia out of captired areas.

Another month gives Ukrainian forces time to learn and deploy their NATO weapons.

We"re already hearing reports of small counter offenses.
Guarian live blog

Ukraine ‘unlikely’ to launch counter-offensive before mid-June, says presidential adviser

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said no Ukraine counter-offensive was expected before mid-June when it hopes to have received more weapons from its allies, Reuters reports.

Arestovych said he did not expect Russia’s offensive in Ukraine to produce any “significant results” by 9 May, when Russia celebrates its ‘Victory Day’ over Nazi Germany in the second world war.

He said fighting continued at the Azovstal steel works in the southern port city of Mariupol where civilians and the city’s last defenders are holed up.

Speaking on national television, Arestovych said Ukrainian forces “repelled” Russian troops at the plant.

He said a lot of contradictory information was circulating but said “there are ongoing combats. All other information is being clarified.”

[RickJay]

@Cardigan

A declaration of war would allow the government to commit full reserves, active conscription, and conversion of industry to war production. But how might this affect the outcome long term?

They could have done these things before. Russia isn’t a rule of law state.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Arestovych said this over a week ago:

Bianna Golodryga

Could be the case, but could also be deliberate misinformation for operational reasons. Maybe that is when the Ukrainians will be ready for counterattacks on multiple fronts. In any case, the counterattack against Izyum seems to be happening now, with many new fires visible to the west of Izyum on the NASA fire map (on the left of the map):

[Cardigan]

Granted Putin can order anything he likes at any time, but there are certain forms to be observed. So far the Kremlin narrative has been this is not a war, just a little ol’ special military operation using surgical strikes and minimizing casualties. If they’re suddenly going to conscript hundreds of thousands more bodies and want to minimize public resentment they need to spin a different story - a perfectly reasonable and justified full-scale war against Ukraine requiring mass mobilization in order to slay the Nazis and their NATO puppet masters.

[mjmartin]

@PhillyGuy

But there is nothing I see in the article that isn’t blazingly obvious (including that there is a rank ceiling – Lieutenant General – above which the U.S. won’t pass on the location of a Russian general).

I can’t understand the justification for having a rank ceiling. (The article is paywalled, maybe it was already explained?).

[Cardigan]

I suspect the ceiling exists for the same reason the US has the policy of not assassinating foreign leaders. An argument can be made a four star general is as much a political figure as military.

[mjmartin]

I can’t point to the language in the executive order that prohibits assignations, but I assume that it doesn’t apply because we aren’t the ones pulling the trigger, and it’s an active war zone. If Saddam had made an appearance on Kuwaiti territory during the Gulf War and the CIA found out about it, my guess is that he wouldn’t have made it back out again.

[aceplace57]

I think Intelligence services monitored Russian Chief Of General Staff Gerasimov and he led them to the Izium command center.

Apparently it was known that Putin sent the General into Ukraine to coordinate the offense. Obviously that meant he would meet his officers in a command center.

I have wondered why he wasn’t killed. It makes sense that high ranking leaders can’t be targeted.

The Russians didn’t target the US Secretary of defense Lloyd Austin during his visit.

[Folacin]

@mjmartin

I can’t point to the language in the executive order that prohibits assignations

If only there had been such an order when Bill was harassing Monica . . .