Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

They have all the experience. We need to suck all that up.

Actual combat experience is really valuable for training. It has been over 15 years since the US military has had to deal with anything like the Ukrainians are experiencing currently. The situation in Afghanistan has been very different for most of that endless seeming time we were there.

Claimed video of the frigate Admiral Makarov on fire, although some think it’s video game footage.

It does look like a video game.

That would be nice, since that would mean they are no longer too busy fighting a war.

I do see what looks like a bit of a bow wave. The ship could still be under power and making speed through the water, generating a relative wind. Which might make sense for them to do, depending on what’s already been burned out. Keeps smoke clear of the ship’s bridge, too.

But, yeah, kind of hard to get a sense of scale in that picture. Could be almost anything.

Or laying a smoke screen. Those are commonly white and hang close to the surface while out of control fire smoke, especially fuel, is black.

Of course, going at speed like that, it would not be for itself but those behind in it. Were there any other ships around for it to protect?

Smoke screens are… not common these days.

Next you’re going mention, they’re not much use against modern radar. Smoke doesn’t do much against Infrared missiles like Stingers either. But there are flare defensive measures. Not sure what ships carry those.

Let me change gears here. It seems the EU is considering sanctioning Putin’s girlfriend but there is some debate because to do so might offend Putin and raise tensions. Why is this even a consideration? Offend Putin!? Hello! Putin is directing the invasion of a sovereign country and the commission too many war crimes to count. Do they think he’ll go with nukes if his girlfriend (who he denies is his girlfriend) suffers economic sanctions?

Well, US Navy ships do, that’s true. It’s the Mk245 “Giant” IR Round (the mere existence of which is not classified, so don’t anyone get the idea I’m disclosing state secrets or the like).

But those are of course something that gets launched form the ship. If it’s burning on the ships, you’ve got problems.

ETA: And I will take this as another opportunity to highlight the complexity of maritime warfare. Or really war in general. Launching countermeasures is another thing that seems like it ought to be really easy–and in a pinch perhaps could be–but even just the question of which countermeasures to launch, much less how or when, is something that takes at least some training. I wonder what percentage of Russian Navy shipboard sailors are conscripts, and how well they train for things that happen almost never (responding to an honest to god missile attack) but require rapid decision-making and response. Or who is empowered to make those time-sensitive decisions.

I’m not sure why Ukraine needs specially trained brigades to kick Russia out of Donbass. At some point in the next few months, Ukraine’s advantage in precision artillery and drone surveillance is going to become so overwhelming that no Russian anywhere in Donbass will be safe and Russia will also have no artillery to return the favor. At that point, Russia will face a stark choice: Keep sending thousands of men to Donbass be shelled to their deaths every week, or…cut losses and go home.

If Russia chooses the former, they’ll literally run out of men and vehicles at some point. Ukraine won’t even have to go into Donbass, they’ll just keep sending Excaliburs and BONUSes over.

There are chemical smoke screens that can block IR. Radar not so much. Aircraft use decoy flares because smokescreens at flight speeds are not much use whatsoever.

In any event, since the frigate was way ahead of the smoke, that’s not likely the answer – it was just the smoke sure looks like deliberate.

I fail to understand what the intention would be. It is a long stream of smoke that is like a huge arrow labeled “Frigate: right HERE!” Why would you do that? It seems unlikely that they are trying to distract from other maneuvers nearby (the Ukrainians are not that dumb). Are they trying to disguise a ship that is not actually dead?

They’re trying to make them frigate that it’s there.

To your room. Now.

Still no word on the Admiral Makarov.

Still no word on the Admiral Makarov.

This breaking news just in!

Admiral Makarov is still dead.

ETA: in case anyone doesn’t get the joke…

Speaking of boats, the naval engagement has spilled over the straits and into the Med

A 140m skiff with 6 decks, four radar domes and two helipads, everybody needs one of those.

It would make a nice guided missile against a Russian ship.