All the statements about Russia being able to benefit from full mobilization makes me think of this quote from Ho Chi Minh to the French, long before my country got involved.
Because how many millions of its own people is Russia willing to sacrifice for this insane goal? You can throw men at the problem, but without something more than that, all you get is graves if the problem is a war. Ukraine has nowhere to go, and so it will generally fight until the last man. I don’t think that Russia can conscript its way into winning this war without equipping the troops with more than they’ve received so far. Their problem is not only manpower, but strategy and tactics.
Russia doesn’t have the capital resources for an extended ground war. It’s not a wealthy country in relation to it’s size. It will literally bankrupt the country.
Following the “liberation” of Mariupol and the defeat of the Azov batallion, Ukraine’s Nazi problem is under control for now and they’re going to focus on “peacekeeping” efforts in the “independent” Donbas regions.
To commemorate this Great Patriotic Victory, Putin will trepidaciously acquiesce to the people’s overwhelming demand that he assume the office of Czar.
Not confirmed yet, just a claim by the Ukrainians:
Of course “on-fire” does not mean “sunk”.
This is claimed to be an image of it:
…not sure why the smoke is so low however and frankly this could be anything. Surely the winds can’t be that strong. Part of me wonders if this is a jet ski.
I found retired US Army Maj. Gen. Mike Repass analysis very interesting. Repass has advised the Ukrainian military for the past six years on a US government contract. He recently visited Poland and western Ukraine.
Repass is looking at the next phase of the war. Giving Ukraine advanced weapons has stalled advancing Russian forces. That won’t be enough to actually push them out of Ukraine territory.
A relatively small force has to be trained and equipped outside the country. It requires patience. This won’t happen overnight. Ukraine must have a tightly trained force that can defeat Russian forces.
The next question is whether NATO is willing to take these steps? Repass is suggesting that training be spread over 5 countries. I assume many Ukrainian vets would be included in this training. That will make a big difference.
I hope a plan similiar to this is being implemented. Throwing weapons at the problem won’t be enough to defeat Russian forces inside Ukraine.
I wonder what air assets Repass is referring to when he speaks of these future Ukrainian brigades fighting an “integrated air-land battle approach?” Ukraine’s air assets are anemic. The plan seems to imply we’ll also be furnishing jets and helicopters as well. I don’t see how we could equip, provide all the necessary maintenance resources, and train pilots in 6 - 8 months time.
I’m not a pilot, but the A-10 Warthog is an older plane and presumably less complicated to learn to operate than the current NATO fighters. I’m guessing the Warthog would figure in significantly. Maybe some of the older model F/A -18s as well.
I know the Air Force is trying hard to phase out the Warthogs, in fact they’re currently undersupplied in repair and maintenance parts. But I thought a major issue with Warthogs today was that this Vietnam era “grounds troops best friend” is very vulnerable to modern portable missiles?
So while the Air Force would probably be happy to give them to the Ukrainians, can they still do the job against the Russian forces?
That is certainly true. MANPADS are far more effective against slow moving targets than fast ones. They’re death to helicopters and slow planes, but struggle to shoot down fast jets.
