I think/hope that NATO would have “island hopped” around it. The Russian’s are liberating a people desperate for salvation using one of the finest armies in the world, and couldn’t afford to look weak there.
If NATO was that far into Ukraine, the Soviet’s are on the ropes. Leave enough troops to prevent a successful “last charge of the Rohirrim” and let them stew until they run out of food.
What do Russians think of the war? Here’s an interesting article by a Russian journalist who grew up in the Soviet era and is familiar with state-imposed information restrictions. His view is that younger Russians have access to outside news sources, while older tv watching Russians will be sceptical of the gov’t news but will never say so publicly or on a phone call, even with relatives, because they assume the gov’t is listening.
(May be paywalled, as Bloomberg limits number of free articles per month.)
Have not posted one of these in a while but here’s the latest claim of Russian loses by the Ukrainian government.
“Liquidated personnel” presumably means war casualties rather than an estimated number of killed Russian fighters.
And another post from me.
This site allows you to view ruined Ukrainian cities in a Google Street View format. In fact I think this might actually be Google Street View. Quite incredible, though there’s a hint of war tourism about it:
The Mariupol garrison has been ordered to surrender by the Ukrainian military. They are supposed to be going into the bag on Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory.
I am in awe of their courage.
It seems unclear to me what’s going on with Mariupol - whether it’s just wounded being evacuated or whether it’s a wider stand down.
The Russians are already breaking the agreement with Ukraine. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They seem to break every negotiated agreement.
Guardian blog
One thing that jumps out at me on the estimated losses graphic is the sudden increase in the amount of artillery systems that are claimed to be destroyed. It seems like there must be a concerted effort on the part of the Ukrainians to target artillery. Perhaps the western counter battery systems are working well.
It’s not careless, exactly, it’s the price of the war they’re trying to fight. Taking the Black Sea coastline is fairly obviously one of their primary objectives, and taking a country’s coastline means they’re going to contest it with anti-ship weapons. Russia could very easily avoid this, but would have to give up one of their critical objectives to do so.
I’d like to see a site that has decent quality overheads of the major cities. There was reporting that Russia was explicitly targeting hospitals (e.g. as opposed to carelessly/accidentally hitting them). That could be fairly easily proven or disproven if there are even medium-quality pan-overs available, anywhere, that are up to date.
I was surprised when the Russians agreed to a prisoner swap with the Azov soldiers. They are the closest thing to the ‘Nazis’ Russia claimed to be fighting, and I figured they would be useful to Putin if he wants to declare some kind of ‘victory’ from this clusterfuck. He could get out of Ukraine claiming that ‘de-Nazification’ was achieved, and hope to hold Crimea and parts of the Donbas. Then they could have show trials and parade some of these guys in front of the public and call it a win.
Trading them for Russian prisoners seems counter to the whole ‘de-Nazification’ rationale for the war in the first place. And without that little fig leaf, the war looks like even more of a disaster for Russia so far. So I was skeptical that they would ultimately let those guys go. The prisoners they are trading for would have to be extremely high value.
Also since when does he give a fuck about his soldiers?
When he’s starting to run out?
One would think that (barely) within living memory another country having similar designs on them with a similar attitude on their humanity triggering the Great Patriotic War, they would be more understanding how a people don’t like it when an outside force attempts subjugation.
Quintus: People should know when they are conquered.
Maximus: Would you, Quintus? Would I?
It doesn’t sound good for the Azovstal battalion. Russia propaganda has focused on them since day 1 of the war.
The Russians are not the only ones susceptible to that problem, I remember a certain nation trying to “denazify” errr I mean “debaathify” a country in the middle east and telling everyone who argued against, even old time allies, to stuff their freedom fries where the sun don’t shine.
No, that’s claimed KIA.
I don’t think Putin has had any military training. Saw a photo of him shooting a pistol. His non-dominant eye was tightly closed. Anyone who has had any training at all knows to keep both eyes open, so as to be aware of peripheral activity and next potential target.
Awesome messaging from the Ukrainians…someone likes American movies… 
Blimey it is high