Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

That is…spectacular. I really, really hope it’s real and not a fake.

Rule of thumb is the Ukrainian numbers are probably close on to twice what the real numbers are, any figures coming out of Russia more like half. Bear in mind that both sides will be lying, for morale purposes.

Still, even 14K works out to c. 170/day, which is brutal.

I don’t think there’s any such rule of thumb. By US and UK estimates, Russia would have passed 15,000 KIA weeks ago.

From wikipedia:

10,000+ killed / > 30 March / US estimate
15,000 killed / > 25 April / UK estimate

It’s real, and not the only example:

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1522582026834128896/dKgXaZ8N?format=jpg&name=900x900

Yep!

Ugh. Good on them, I guess. But man do I despise that film.

It’s like the Neo-Nazis in the Azov battalion. I admire their dogged defense of Mariupol. But on the other hand, they’re fucking Nazi trash. Ah, war - always with the cognitive dissonance.

The Russian Duma has woken from their slumber. Imagine their surprise that Russian president Valdimir Putin and the military have bungled the war.

I’m curious to see how this plays out. I rarely see criticism of Putin by state officials.

Russia has a new BMPT? I wonder how it compares to NATO equipment? Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17 | Institute for the Study of War

BMPT is already online

They should post pictures of it with it’s exact coordinates in order to reassure the Duma. Maybe on unsecured cell phones.

This point isn’t 100% clear. They seem to be part of a religion that still uses shamanistic symbolism:

I’m still researching but I think that politically, in terms of what they think of foreigners, they’re more in the realm of Tucker Carlson than Hitler.

Of course, there isn’t as much difference there as one could wish . . .

I’m sure most have heard by now about the retired Russian colonel who was openly critical on Monday of both the political and military outcomes of the ‘special military operation’ thus far.

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV - BBC News

Since this was featured prominently on state run tv, what does this portend? That this retired military figure was permitted to speak these things was no accident. Could it be the Russian public is being prepared for the possibility of the future withdrawal of their troops? If so, this could represent the first public move in that direction.

Interesting. If that was planned, or at least allowed at this point, perhaps it is to lower expectations around the outcome of Putin’s little military adventure, as well as set-up someone (or a group of people) to take the fall for the failure. I think there were two important things he said: 1) “the world is against us” - acknowledging the country is isolated and the sanctions are biting, and 2) “Ukrainian soldiers defending their motherland” - acknowledging Ukraine as an entity is someone’s homeland (other than Russia).

It is a bit curious why tightly-controlled Russian state media allowed his voice to be heard. In a previous appearance on a similar program he had also been critical. In addition, he wrote a prescient article before the war saying that it would be a bad idea - it can be read here (it’s in Russian, but can be auto-translated).

Carlson is popular in Russia, so they’re not ones to talk.

The interesting thing is that, probably, the media can’t report on what he said so if their intent is to start disseminating his message, they need to retract the reporting laws first.

Alternately, they will need to start bringing him on to every show so that he can give the message, more broadly, which could in turn create a situation where they’ve created a nationally famous, trustworthy figure who is in opposition to Putin…

Here’s an article on the Azov Battalion from a Jewish news website:

Awesome article. Thank you for sharing that.

For the record, I also posted an article about Azov from a Jewish news site:

Google’s Russian subsidiary announced it’s planning to file for bankruptcy, saying Russia’s seizure of its bank account has made it untenable for it to function.

The company had already paused most of its commercial operations in Russia, including all advertising, after the country’s communications censor accused the company’s YouTube video service of spreading misinformation and stoking protests.

Putin’s image has always been carefully portrayed to the public. So I think it’s a big deal if someone of stature criticizes him. And lives.