I really feel for the Ukrainians. I always supported them of course but I did think they might just give up and let Putin take over, especially after what happened in Crimea. I will say I underestimated them. I mean vastly, vastly underestimated them. I have seen a member of their Parliament interviewed about how them are all armed and fighting. Could you imagine Congress fighting in a war? Maybe about 1/10 of them would take up weapons but most would run and hide.
I also had no idea Zelensky was such a badass. I have never seen a world leader’s reputation skyrocket so fast. “I need ammunition, not a ride” is now a classic. Finally, the fact that they are using Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It” as their theme song really makes me smile. Dee Snyder is apparently 1/4 Ukrainian and has given them his blessing while taking a shot at the antimaskers/antivaxxers who he did NOT want to use the song last year.
I do feel that Putin is so unstable that he cannot be stopped but I am encouraged by the fact that the whole rest of the world except Belarus and China seems to be against him and it feels darn good having all of the NATO countries pulling together and everybody already helping the refugees (and Jose Andres is already on the Polish/Ukrainian border feeding people and is apparently heading to Romania next).
IIRC, Ukraine has made the argument that the General Assembly could vote that the Soviet Union’s seat on the Security Council is vacant and that Russia is not entitled to fill it, along the lines of when China’s seat was taken from the ROC amd given to the PRC.
It’s possible that they can take Ukraine, but I don’t think they can keep it. Any puppet regime they install is not going to be accepted as legitimate, and they’re going to wind up having to occupy the country long-term while fighting an unrelenting insurgency with no endgame in sight, all while their economy continues to crumble, they keep losing men and materiel, and the Russian citizenry become more and more unwilling with what the war is costing them. Zelenskyy has no doubt set up contingencies for who is to succeed him if he’s killed or captured, and it’s going to be that leader that the military, police, and people regard as their president.
Best endgame they get is declaring victory, keeping the two eastern territories, and withdrawing.
Not saying Russia would do it, but if they did use WMDs like sarin or VX on Ukraine, maybe that could trigger NATO to decide direct intervention was worth it.
And lots of Russian assets designed to turn those American assets into scrap metal.
“How long can an A-10 survive over modern Russian formations with IADS, and how will the latter fare against American SEAD operations” are questions I would rather not find out the answer to.
How likely is it that Russia/Putin will be able to wait out international outrage once that happens? Or has their economy and reputation taken such a huge blow already that it would take too long for businesses and nations to decide they like having Russia’s money and resources more than not having it? I assume this was the original plan,
When inflation and energy bills begin to bite their populations, which should be sometime over the summer for Asia and the late Autumn for Europe/N America.
but it isn’t feasible anymore, is it? It seems like things have gone too far beyond that.
Most likely outcome will be an ever expanding series of “exceptions” carved out to the sanctions regime, eventually being big enough to sail an aircraft carrier through, sideways.
The above are answers to your specific questions. More generally, its a game of chicken right now, and both are betting the other side blinks first.
A lot depends on how the worlds most powerful man, President Xi, decides to react.
Not likely, no. But imagine that also Putin pays off Fox, OAN, etc. to boost him. Their viewers never hear anything but the Russian government line. That could sway voters, which in turn sways the Republican Congresspeople. With them and Trump on Putin’s side, US sanctions are history, and they can work together pressure other countries to follow suit on threat of their own sanctions or something like that.
Yes, this is incredibly unlikely to happen and work, but like I said, it might be the only halfway plausible shot Putin has. The only problem is that I’m not sure he has two plus years or the resources available to actually do it.
Russia is not a very powerful or important country, economically speaking. Its economy is smaller than Canada’s or Italy’s, and nobody’s afraid of them. Yes, it provides oil and gas, but so do other countries. The West and Asia will do just fine without it.
Russia needs the rest of the world a lot more than the rest of the rest of the world needs Russia.
Venices economy was far bigger than France or Austria’s. Didn’t help them much in the long run. GDP is a useful metric but it can blind people.
Yes, it provides oil and gas, but so do other countries
Its one of the worlds largest exporter of agricultural products.. Regrettably, Ukraine is second in most groups. Europe and Asia are filled to the brim with countries which need food imports to feed themselves.
Plus the worlds biggest manufacturer of fertilizer, so its not that someone else could take up the slack and we are fast nearing the Northern cutting and souther planting season so this years a write off anyway,.
Hope we are all ready for some massive inflation.
The West and Asia will do just fine without it.
The Singaporean commodities traders I spent the morning Zooming with had a different view. Time shall tell who is right.
My wife and I were talking about this. How the hell can just one wack-job do so much damage and violence and, if the west becomes too meddlesome, essentially threaten the planet with nuclear war?
And the west, IMO, is in a real bind here. At my gut, I truly believe that NATO should be on Ukrainian soil and in their airspace ASAP. But then there are Putin’s threats. But if we do nothing he could possibly just move on to the next ex-Soviet country, and on and on until he’s happy.
