The Ruble has indeed stayed strong against the USD. This article goes into some detail how:
The stated reasons are:
Commodity prices are currently sky-high
Russia’s central bank has implemented strict capital controls that make it harder to convert it to other currencies
Russian exporters are required to convert half of their excess revenues into rubles
Westerns businesses that are exiting the Russian market are not able to export significant capital
These are short-term fixes and Russia is still suffering from the sanctions:
Russian oil is selling for $35 per barrel less than Brent crude
Inflation rate in Russia is more than double that of the U.S.
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Regardless whether one supports Ukraine or Russia in this war, the fact is Russia has been denied access to a significant portion of the global economy. Russia can continue to sell resources at a discount to India, Pakistan, and China, but the negative impact to the Russian economy is unavoidable.
I include this as something we all in fact agree upon.
Russia has zero right to say who does and does not join NATO
The “Minsk agreement” was only ever worth the paper it was written on. In case that’s not clear, it was a verbal agreement - no paper, no actual agreement.
The Russian government is certainly allowed an opinion about what other nations do, but that does not extend to imposing their opinion on other, sovereign nations
And this is where you champion Russia
In 1992 Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol - unlike the Minsk agreement this was a real agreement on real paper - as did the Russian Federation. Ukraine also joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear state. As part of all this Ukraine sent all of its nuclear weapons to the Russia Federation in return for the RF pledging to respect is borders and sovereignity. Which Russia very clearly has not done.
The Donbas areas have not, in fact, declared independence. The Russian Parliament declared they were independent, but that’s like the UK declaring Normandy, France is an “independent” state and stating they’re going to invade to protect it from the evil French government.
Ukraine was ZERO threat to the Russia Federation. Aside from being smaller, poorer, and having a smaller military, it had surrendered its nuclear capability in return for a promise for its borders to be respected.
NATO is not a threat to Russia (except in the mind of some Russians who, regrettably, seem to be in charge there). Don’t want NATO to fight you? Don’t attack a NATO member. The only thing NATO was a threat to here was Russia ambition to conquer a weaker neighbor.
Russia started this war, full stop. It is entirely the fault of Russia, no one else.
Which could easily happen if Russia just stopped shooting at Ukraine. They started this war, they could end it.
Why? Because the Kremlin wants that? Again, no one declared it “independent” other than the Russian Parliament, who should have zero say on what slicing up a sovereign neighbor.
Again, here are you championing Russia
Crimea was given to Ukraine during the breakup up the USSR and was part of Ukraine, and should have been left Ukrainian by Russia as everyone agreed to in 1992.
It is well known that Russia interfered with Crimea in 2014 and were the source of the “little green men” that lead to it breaking away.
No referendum of the actual Crimeans was held until AFTER the Russians took over.
They did so. In the early 1990’s. Which was been violated ONLY by Russia. Why don’t you want to hold Russia to what Russia agreed to?
Which is why everyone and their brother anywhere near the Russia border is now running to join NATO, because clearly Russia regards “agreements”, “pacts”, and “treaties” as toilet paper.
The Donbas and Crimea are part of Ukraine and no one should be slicing them off.
What next? You want to slice Montana and California off the US? Remove Cornwall from the UK? Perhaps pull Bavaria out of Germany or declare Burgundy independent of French oppression?
Ukraine WAS neutral. Very, very carefully neutral. And look what happened to them.
No one in their right mind is going to remain neutral in the face of Russian aggression. That is why oh-so-very-very neutral Finland is now joining NATO.
You are very much a champion of Russian interests here. I disagree with you even as I uphold your right to disagree (a right people in Russia no longer have, as even calling the war a war gets you a prison sentence these days). I would prefer that you be honest about your opinion and which side you’re on - the Russian side.
The war’s objectives are getting quite complicated for both parties. ISW explains Russa’s difficult choices. Where should they position their troops?
Ukraine has a similar problem. They’ve began an offensive strategy in Kherson and allowed Russia time to send additional troops and prepare defenses. A full assault on Kherson will be very costly.
As opposed to what Russia is doing, which is peeling off a layer of another country that doesn’t belong to them?
How about Russia stop threatening its neighbors? Despite the addled, paranoid fantasies of the Kremlin absolutely no one was threatening Russia. If Russia stayed within its borders (which are quite extensive - they still have the largest land area of any nation on the planet) no one would have the least interest of entering into armed conflict with them. The rest of the planet would be very happy to leave Russia alone within its own borders.
And in the past Canada invaded the United States and burned down the White House! But the US isn’t using that as an excuse to invade and take over Canada.
Your statement basically says that because of geography Ukraine has no right to exist and must be part of Russia. OK, then what bit of land will Russia demand after that, with the excuse that bit was used to invade Ukraine the Cossack Oblast?
Yeah, them aiming a shit-ton of nuclear warheads at the member nations of NATO had a LOT to do with that (and before you bring it up - yes, we know there were NATO nations pointing them at the USSR, which was entirely justified to have its own defensive alliance).
The USSR, and later Russia, also cast the US and NATO as enemies. Please stop pretending Russia is some poor, innocent bystander of the Cold War instead of one of the main instigators of it.
Invading and taking over Ukraine puts multiple NATO nations on the new Russian border so that’s bullshit.
It also backfired spectacularly since as a direct result of this war Finland - oh so very, very neutral Finland - is now joining NATO which will put NATO right on the Russian border. Yeah, that worked as planned by Putin (not).
Yes, that’s why Cuba is a US state… oh, wait, it’s not.
Maybe you’re too young/didn’t pay attention in history class, but in 1962 Cuba did exactly that - joined up with Russia and missiles were on their way to the island to be based there. Your predicted outcome did not occur.
NATO did not “dangle” membership over Ukraine, NATO has standards for membership (as does the EU for that matter) and it is up to Ukraine to either meet the standards or not.
Also, Ukraine is a sovereign nation and Russia has no more right to dictate what alliances Ukraine can or can’t join than Ukraine has a right to dictate the same to Russia.
Why the hell do you think Russia has ANY right to interfere in another nation?
Russia has NO right to “defend” the dissenters in another nation. In fact, they’d scream bloody murder (and have) if anyone speaks up for THEIR dissenters.
“My guy lost” is NOT a valid reason to riot, stage a coup or invite another country to invade your country
The fact you think there is some direct, unquestionable line between “Ukraine has internal problems” and “Russia invades” demonstrates, once again, you are a Russian apologist.
Again - I defend your right to your opinion but be honest about where your allegiance lies.
Russia has been paranoid for its entire history, and has consistently responded to that paranoia by invading and taking over its neighbors. Hey, at least they’re consistent.
The US is also cast as a Big Evil Empire (with some justification) and yet they aren’t invading their immediate neighbors to create a “buffer zone” between them and others. Nor do either Mexico or Canada feel a need to militarize their borders with the US. The US and Russia are not alike and your whataboutism is invalid and does not apply.
It would get us a lot further towards that goal if Russia would stop invading its neighbors and trying to absorb them.
Training the Ukrainian troops is a necessity. Thr Mozart group is training front line troops on the essentials of shooting and improving their chances on the battlefield.
Countries that happens to be members of NATO have attacked, even invaded, other countries but NATO has not. I get the sense that Russia (and you) view NATO as the equivalent of the USSR. It is not, and never has been.
NATO has never threatened to attack Russia, only to defend against Russia. If Russia leaves its neighbors alone NATO leaves Russia alone. This is really not a difficult concept.
Funny - Putin’s irrendentist screed earlier this year contradicts that. He called for restoring the full extent of the Russia Empire and the feelings of those that would be mowed under be damned.
Again, NATO is not the USSR. The US does not control what member nations do, indeed, there have been all sorts of conflicts, disagreements, and various NATO nations acting contrary to the desires of the US.
Also, Ukraine is not and never has been a member of NATO. NATO has never had a say in what Ukraine does. Ukraine is not a puppet of anyone (indeed, their refusal to be such is why they are fighting this war). Ukraine was never going to “stir the pot” on behalf of anyone else. Indeed, opposing the wishes of the US President Trump impacted it’s military readiness for this conflict.
Yet another argument of yours refuted.
^ This.
Except that some of your facts are not facts at all.
You are entitled to your own opinion. You are NOT entitled to your own facts apart from actual factual facts.
Except Ukraine is NOT, and never has been, a proxy for the United States. Indeed, under the Trump administration they were penalized for NOT kowtowing to a US President.
Again, you can have your own opinion but not your own facts.
RUSSIA started this war by invading its neighbor. No one else started this war.
They why did the US offer Zelenskyy a ride out of the country? Why are you so resistant to the notion that is it the choice of the Ukrainians to oppose Russia? Why do you deny Ukraine it’s autonomy?
Yeah, right - “popular approval” in a nation where calling a war a war can get you a decade in prison. Claims of Putin’s approval rating are not credible in a nation where anything other than parroting the party line gets you jail time.
You forgot flamboyant assassinations by using polonium and highly advanced chemical weapons in other nations like the UK.
Good arguments here. I would add that, like most autocrats, when Putin talks about a threat to Russia what he really means is it is a threat to him personally. And that he believes that Russia can only survive with himself at the helm.
Seen through that lens Ukraine IS a threat to Russia because a democratic and successful Ukraine demonstrates to Russians that there is a way to get a better quality of life if they were to reject Putin. And without Putin there is no Russia.
Ridiculous of course but it is an internally consistent argument and shows why Putin sympathisers can believe that Ukraine is a threat. They think that Russia will be ended by western democratic values.
IMO If you think Russia should remain under Putin’s grip, and especially if you think this without even being on the payroll, then you need your head examined. Russia can and should be a much greater country. How much incredible Russian culture or science has the world missed out on because of Putin’s desire to enrich himself off the backs of the people he professes to work for.
As you may have heard, Ukraine caused a stir when HIMARS hit the Antonivsky bridge eliminating the most direct military supply route to Kherson. Russians have responded by creating pontoon bridges, and a ferry system over the Dnipro River. Also, they’ve placed a number of radar reflectors around the Antonivsky bridge in an attempt to create a ‘ghost bridge’ to confuse HIMARS. It remains to be seen how effective this workaround will be.
Russian surveillance drones have infra red cameras and cell phone tracking. Does that mean a commander could be targeted by a phone in his pocket? Cell phones always ping towers regardless if they are in use.
If you are walking around with an active phone in your pocket, your location is probably known even before moving in a drone. Plenty of people killed that way:
I also thought that.
I think the only way that Russian missile defense has improved at HIMARS is probably the accumulation of radar track information. Maybe the HIMAR missiles have aspects that can be seen amongst other ones? But HIMARS are still getting through.
I really liked the Ukraine strategy of mass launches, sneaking in HIMARS amongst them or timed for Russian reload downtime.
I think the Ukrainians figured that out pretty quick, they likely already new it. But some of their forces are not regular Ukraine military. Not as disciplined. Also lots of civilians in the areas. Maybe intel can be surmised by just noting a large movement of civilians away from or to an area? Movements that can indicate a vehicle or group of vehicles.
Cell phone positions and movement is like some weird radar.
I have been seeing some spitballing that the North Koreans might send troop to help Russia for the smallest of honoraria. Great fun, thousands of PDRK troops deserting in eastern Europe.
As requested, I will not reply to that bunch of stuff.
But feel free to continue if allowed. Folks here always have interesting things to say. I do not feel it necessary to silence them.
