Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Stir the pot.

I’ve started a thread in The BBQ Pit here, so as to no longer hijack this thread.

That would be epic.

Mauldin covered it 80 years ago.

It’s time!

Illia Ponomarenko:

Thread on Kherson from a Professor of Strategic Studies:

The loss of the city of Kherson early in the war was a massive setback for the Ukrainians. It would have been relatively easy to prevent the city’s fall by blowing the bridges across the Dnipro River that lead to it.

In such circumstances, I think that it can be good to try and focus on the opportunities that negative events can often generate. The opportunity here is to cut supply lines across the river and isolate, trap and capture/kill a lot of Russian invaders.

(It’s not a skull - it’s a head that’s been there for a while.)

On the Olenivka POW massacre, from the same article:

The Amnesty organisation has been receiving a lot of criticism recently:

The thread continues in the link. The “anal orgies” part is not just a crude offhand remark, but more about social hierarchy and prison culture that pervades Russian society.

What is the current prison culture?

There is a long history there that dates back to possibly even before the Russian Revolution. The traditional “vory” had a pretty rigid code of conduct that prohibited any sort of collaboration or cooperation with prison authorities, law enforcement, or the government. (Military service is certainly right out; cf. the post-WW2 Bitch Wars). Have times changed that much?

The brutality of this war will rise to indescribable levels. It always happens regardless of the country. Band of Brothers featured a character that hated Germans and killed some POW’s. It’s based on a true incident. The Germans executed POW’s during the Battle of the Bulge at Malmédy. It was investigated and prosecuted.

The Russians will soon regret their brutality. The Ukrainians can and will reciprocate. Their sharpening their knives now.

I remember a scene in the 1979 edition of All Quiet on the Western Front with Richard Thomas and Ernest Borgnine, the latter, an experienced sergeant, catches a new recruit, maybe Thomas, filing serrations into the edge of his trench knife. “Throw that away! The French catch you with that they’ll use it to gouge out your eyes and fill the sockets with sawdust!”

Rumors are that Ukraine has been using some American-provided AGM-88 HARMs to knock out Russian radars, perhaps with MiGs that were modified to carry Western missiles.

Probably ground launched. From The Drive -

"Apparently, Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov was quoted by Ukrainian media as recently saying anti-radiation missiles would be sent to Ukraine during a national address (translated):

“Based on this level of trust, we will continue to receive assistance. And you definitely saw the package announced, if I’m not mistaken, for $270 million with the signature of the President of the United States that we will get four more HIMARS, we will get special anti-radar missiles that we had before. This will allow you and I to effectively destroy their (the enemy’s - ed.) radar system, essentially blinding the enemy, which will give us the opportunity to gain an advantage for a counteroffensive.”

It still isn’t clear if this is related to the HARM development, but it would seem very possible. The $270M aid package Reznikov is referring to was announced in late July.

Also, it’s worth noting that the HIMARS launcher could potentially be adapted to fire a ground-launch AGM-88 and has the interface that could be adapted to control it. Similar studies, as well as tests, were done for using HIMARS as an air defense platform over a decade ago, including launching the AIM-120 AMRAAM.

It’s also worth mentioning that no matter how a potential ground-launched AGM-88 is boosted (it at all), its range would be significantly decreased compared to air launch. We are talking a huge penalty here, especially without a booster.

Does Ukraine have paratroopers? Russia has fortified the Kherson line. No one wants to charge into it.

Drop troops inside Kherson or come in from the flank like Schwarzkopf did in the Gulf War.

It seems like Ukraine could use the 100 mile battle line to it’s advantage. Find the poorly defended areas.

Otherwise this battle will be even worse than the ones six weeks ago in Donbas.
Cite: Battle for Kherson could exact deadly toll : NPR

The historic way to deal with an overly-well defended bit of land is to surround it and starve the soldiers out. You don’t have to try and pounce in.

Plus shelling.

I was looking today at yet another list of military items the west has sent Ukraine, and it struck me as notable that two things they aren’t sending in any appreciable quantities are tanks and modern armored personnel carriers. Seems like we’re being very careful in limiting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities. Almost like we’re trying to promote a stalemate situation. If it was going to be a short conflict, not sending advanced equipment would make sense as Ukraine lacks the trained personnel to use it. But Putin has stated repeatedly they are in this war for the long haul. Why, therefore, shouldn’t we start sending M-1’s, BFVs, F-16s and other obvious weapons platforms that are necessary to conduct offensive operations?

I question Ukraine’s ability to conduct any sort of serious counter-offensive around Kherson with their current forces and weapons available. The handful of HIMARS we’ve sent are nice for complicating Russian logistical efforts, but aren’t going to deliver any knock out blows. Ukraine needs a lot more heavy weapons if they’re going to dislodge Russians from their current positions, particularly once they’ve dug in.

Minimum confirmed losses of Russian officers:

How difficult would those items be to transport? Easier or harder than the stuff we’re already sending? I really don’t know.