Very pretty dam in California. I wouldn’t know how to bomb the road and not the dam. I doubt heavy semi’s are allowed.
I guess all out war makes Ukraine try risky actions.
I think you mean “the Russian explanations of it being an accident confirm unequivocally that it was Ukranian action”.
My guess for the weapn that hit the airbase in Crimea:
That rocket has the range, it can be fired out of an MLRS or a HIMARS launcher, and Ukraine has both. The U.S., South Korea and Turkey all have ATACMS.
It’s interesting - from the outside it looks like a 6 tube MLRS. But inside it’s just one big-ass rocket. So they could be brought into the Ukraine looking like standard MLRS loads. If Russia assesses that as an ATCMS attack, it puts a lot of their assets at risk and they’ll have to respond by relocating them.
The U.S. is replacing ATACMS soon. They might not mind expending some current inventory.
Looking on Google maps, maybe they took out what looks like a bridge over a lock (? or possibly a spillway) on the south bank?
You’d want to be pretty confident in your accuracy, because I expect the dam failing would result in catastrophic flooding in Kherson.
They also has not been officially supplied to Ukraine yet, though Ukraine has asked for them. It is unconfirmed if they have any ]yet, but there have been assorted rumblings in the last week or two that the U.S. may soon send some.
It’s entirely possible, but there are a few options. Cardigan up above linked to a YouTube blogger who made a fairly reasoned argument based on analysis of commercial satellite photos of the before and after site, that a missile strike seemed less likely than a commando operation.
More confirmation Russian forces are cutoff in Kherson. I added bolding. The head rats are already jumping off the ship.
ISW Aug 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 13 | Institute for the Study of War
G-induced Loss Of Consciousness?
Ground Line Of Communication
Kinda like yours though.
Could be.
It’s ISW speak for ground lines of communication.
I’m not sure why they used GLOC in regards to transporting fuel,heavy equipment and ammunition. That’s a supply chain issue caused by the damage to the bridges.
I’ve only heard G-LOC in aviation.
Russia doesn’t seem to be doing well at the moment.
Right, because a careless fire related accident always causes craters at opposite ends of the airfield.
Yeah.
Before picture shows four widely separated buildings. After picture shows all four exploded. The wreckage remains in the berms, indicate the explosions were not chain reaction. But set off individually.
So where does the “tiniest percentage of doubt” come from?
ISW has a interesting breakdown of Russian troops and where they’re positioned. It’s an indication of their priorities. For example, The Izyum-Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. That area is obviously not a major concern at this time.
The analysis is too long to quote and the maps are needed to fully understand.
I am surprised ISW has such detailed information. They have said before they geo locate data from Russian cell phones.
In the multiverse, anything that can happen will happen? Four independent accidental explosions at the same military base in the middle of a war are extremely unlikely but not impossible.
Of course:
I wonder if all this buildup on the Kherson area is just a smoke screen for an attack elsewhere. A story I was reading made a big deal out of the Russian command staff pulling back across the river. They described it as the commanders abandoning their troops. This certainly shows a lack of Russian aggression in that area. So it could be that the Ukr army has just been bluffing in order to tamp down that sector while they prepare to thrust into those noobs stationed in Izyum-Slovyansk.
Multiple news sources are carrying this story. A posted photo by Russian war correspondent Sergei Sreda gave away information on Wagner’s HQ.
HIMARS eliminated the HQ.
The Russian command withdrawing to the opposite side of the Dneiper river from Kherson suggests this is a pretty big deal. You likely heard about how Ukraine has repeatedly hit the three bridges which connect Kherson to Russian supply lines from Crimea.
Ukrainian Army Attacks Kherson Bridges, Destroys Russian Bases in Melitopol - KyivPost - Ukraine’s Global Voice
The bridges have been either destroyed or damaged badly enough that Russians can no longer get heavy weapons and support across the bridges. The Russians have tried repeatedly to repair the bridges but have been thwarted by further Ukrainian attacks (via HIMARS and other artillery). The Russians have also set up a sort of pontoon-ferry as a work-around to get limited equipment across, but it’s not an adequate means to get the supplies across needed to support sustained combat. By moving their command across the river, it’s an admission that they’re on the ‘wrong side’ of the river and don’t want to get trapped and isolated.
Could one consider the Russians on the wrong side of the river to be effectively besieged?