Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

It is the Ukrainians that are shelling the plant. The Russians have been in control of the area for some time now. They have no reason to shell it. Sometimes the Ukrainians said they were shelling it, because Russians had military installations there. Other times they say the Russians are shelling it. It makes no sense for either side to shell it. But even less sense for the Russians to do it. They are in full possession of it. The only Russian military in it are a sensible number of guard personnel. Ukrainian plant workers are still on site to keep it running.
So let the flaming begin…

I have wondered why the Russians would shell their own positions. I’ve seen photos of Russian trucks parked inside the plant. It is possible out going shelling from the plant could hit important infrastructure.

There are plans to disconnect the plant and shut off electricity to Ukraine. That is potentially dangerous.

I don’t think the white trucks would be military. Maybe for use by the plant. The other two could be, but two trucks is not a big deal.
I heard there are actually a few armored personnel carriers at the plant. That would be likely. Military personnel will be guarding the place.

It makes sense for Russia to shell it (and blame Ukraine) if they want to use a meltdown as rationale to escalate (such as using tactical nukes) or a similar type of deception.

Moderator Note

I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you are only posting this part because you expect to be flamed for your generally pro-Russian point of view. Otherwise, intentionally posting things just to stir up flames is an excellent way to have your posting privileges reviewed by the staff.

Do you have a cite for this?

I have no problem with questioning the factual accuracy of news reports coming out of Russia and the Ukraine. Truth is always the first casualty of war, as the saying goes. But if you are going to post something completely contrary to what is being reported in the media, you should be able to cite it.

We are allowing a fair amount of commentary and speculation in this thread, but let’s all keep in mind that this is a breaking news thread. I think everyone is aware of what the breaking news restrictions are at this point. If you are questioning who is doing the shelling, that’s fine, but say that it is speculation on your part. Keep politics out of the discussion, and if it turns into a debate or gets to be too much of a hijack, then take the discussion elsewhere so that this thread can remain focused on the breaking news from the region.

ISW analysis is interesting. I didn’t know there are two power plants in Zaporizhzhia.

I added bolding for emphasis about militarization around the plant. It’s going to be nearly impossible for Ukraine to safely take it back with ground forces.
Cite Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 25 | Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainians make the (very plausible) claim that Russians are placing artillery around the nuclear power plant effectively using it as a ‘shield’ to shell Nikopol across the Dnieper River with impunity.

It would make no sense for the Ukrainians to shell the area of the power plant in order to target a “sensible number of guard personnel”. There are no Ukrainian forces near the plant - they would need to cross the 5 km-wide Kakhovka Reservoir/Dnipro River to get there - so the number of guard personnel required would be small. So small, in fact, that it would likely be impractical/impossible for the Ukrainians to target them with artillery.

Summay: IT people in the Ukraine are fending off Russian cyberspace attacks, and launching their own.

Quote from the article:
“When asked if he (Ukraine IT person) worried about the impact of his efforts on everyday Russians…:”:roll_eyes:

“Worry about it? We’re COUNTING on it!”

I mean, really, that’s what all sanctions and propaganda rely on: Making the common people of the targeted state realize that the war isn’t just about Dear Leader having adventures in someone else’s country. Making them decide to stop supporting Deal Leader, so that the state government collapses.

The President of Belarus has announced that his planes have been modified to carry nuclear weapons.

Yeah, but Belarus doesn’t have any nuclear weapons. In fact, they’re a signatory state to the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

They would be for Russian nuclear weapons.

From the article:

The Union State of which Lukashenko speaks, officially the Union State of Russia and Belarus, is, according to Wikipedia, “a supranational organisation consisting of Russia and Belarus, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defense policy”.

Lukashenko was one of its original creators back in 1997. (He’s been president of Belarus since 1994).

The intention, Wikipedia goes on to say, “was to achieve a federation like the Soviet Union, with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, army, citizenship and currency.”

Furthermore, “although it consists of only Russia and Belarus, other countries are allowed to join”, although nobody else has thus far taken up the invitation.

Joining the Union State with Russia is an effective way to avoid being invaded.

Makes me wonder if Belarus gets other perks like cheap natural gas and weapons.

Lots of reports that 800 of these bomber drones were donated to Ukraine from Taiwan.
https://dronesvision.com/mortar-revolver-bomber-drone/

I hope that includes white hats from the US. It’s essential our guys get experience in this cyber war. Learn Russian capabilities and vulnerability.

The war will probably heat up as both sides try to gain ground before winter.

UK Ministey of Defense

Believe it or not, this has occurred to our intelligence people and we have had people working on it for decades.

I think it would be funny if the Russian hacker division turns out to be as obsolete and hapless as the regular military (“it’s coming through now, it’s a Word file, with … the Concept virus?”). But I also think that Putin’s well-known lack of interest and knowledge in the details of technology as he hews to more traditional expressions of power means the hacker team has largely been left to their own devices, and has been able to develop their capabilities without the headwind of political supervision and meddling. And therefore they’ve probably got some meaningful skillz as a result.

^ This.

Please provide actual proof of this statement. I’m OK with you being a Putin apologist but not with you making unsubstantiated claims.

No one has any reason to shell a nuclear plant, and yet it’s happening. Seems to me it’s more likely to be the side that needlessly started a war by invading a neighboring country doing something so effing stupid than the people defending their homes.

Would you like to explain why the Russians were stupid enough to dig up the Red Forest around Chernobyl? Shelling Zaporizhzhia is no more or less stupid than that.

Yes. Because they have literal guns pointed at their heads and aren’t allowed to leave.

^ This. Cause a major disaster, blame the Ukrainians. Do it on the correct day with the right wind direction and you get to contaminate the evil Western European NATO countries as a bonus. And an excuse to escalate. False flags have long been a Russian specialty.