Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

(quoted by, not written by, @Al128 )

Closed their factory in Mars?

The boycott’s spread wider than I realized.

(Typo/autoincorrect for March, maybe? Or is there someplace in Sweden called Mars and I’m just being a geographical ignoramus?)

I can totally “see” this …

Elon Musk landing on mars with some “Small step…” cite at hand, just to be whisked away by a swedish parking-space assistant …

Sorry sir you can’t park here, that’s for SKF management only

mars is Swedish for the month of March.

It’s conceivable that the Institute for the Study of War actually has factored in the upcoming snow and mud of winter but didn’t tell you.

I’m certainly not an expert but my theory is that winter happens every October - March in Ukraine, and furthermore, it’s usually accompanied by snow and mud.

I’ll stick my neck out even more and speculate that the ISW is aware of this.

Highest precipitation months are in the summer. Fall and winter are lower. So it seems there will not be too much mud issue in the fall and winter. Spring is the worst. As accumulated precipitation melts and water logged ground thaws. So it may be several months yet, before ground conditions are worst. Consider that the invasion happened in February and went through last spring. So there is that as a real world example to consider.

ISW analysis is descriptive … not projective

there seems to be very little snow this late-summer in Ukraine - hence there isn’t any mentioned by them.

They did mention snow and mud in march, along with their analysis that this forces the russians to stick to roads and makes them predictable targets for drones.

now that’s too funny …

.

This isn’t just a war of attrition. it’s a study of logistics. Knowing the supply line behind the supply line is as important as knowing frontline military tactics.

An army marches on it’s stomach and trains play an important role in that. Without firing a shot the Swedes have interrupted supply lines.

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SATURDAY, 3 SEPTEMBER 2022, 06:39

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have killed a number of Russian military personnel on the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukrainian Intelligence reports that Ukrainian forces struck a convoy of Russian trucks heading for Berdiansk; one of the trucks was carrying the bodies of soldiers killed in battle to the Berdiansk crematorium.

To the extent Saskatchewan climate is very similar to Ukraine’s, I would agree. Winter the ground is frozen hard and whatever snow comes down just gets packed on the roads, if not ploughed. Mechanized transport should be pretty solid (except during a blizzard)

I’d say - its a study of general competency - or lack of thereof …

the russians don’t know anything … no tactics, no strategy, no logistics, generations of soldiers educated to NOT think, just do what you are told … etc…

It’s like the syrean army is fighting against Ukr. (from a “smartness” POV)

In Russia, ground strikes missile!

I think it’s deeper than that. I think that after close to a century of party propaganda, not challenged by anyone, Russian government doesn’t have any sense of truth as a value. They just say what fits their current narrative.

“We have always been at war with Eastasia.”

Wagner Group Telegram channel dismisses the Enerhodar amphibious assault claims, while admitting crossings of the Dnieper River/Kakhovka Reservoir by Ukrainian “sabotage groups” do occur:

This factor is generally underappreciated in the west. Having lived for generations under governments that relied so heavily on propaganda, the Russian people are deeply cynical about any information presented by their government. It’s little wonder Russian forces are suffering morale problems. It’s hard to stay committed to fighting a foe when even your officers doubt the sincerity or legitimacy of your cause.

The news sounds encouraging. It’s going to be a long bloody battle. The Russians artillery and missiles are always a threat. HIMARS are blowing up some of those supplies.
Cite Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4 | Institute for the Study of War

I’d say we have seen examples of this in the U.S. recently.

:clap: A positive step. :ukraine:

Yup, need those troops to ensure the vote is conducted in the way that Russia and Putin are used to.