Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[Al128]

@Johnny_L.A

I’d say we have seen examples of this in the U.S. recently.

we see that on a woldwide scale, really … and that is something new (nr. 45 being def. a sad trailblazer here) … where you can pretty openly lie nowadays as a politician without mayor repercussions

I think it also has to do with social media, like twitter — where you get your $hit out and posted, and once those pesky factcheckers come in, the whole show has already moved on …and you get read by 1000s and the checkers by 100s … so there is the whole information-economy working in your favour.

covefe

[Magiver]

@Cardigan

It’s hard to stay committed to fighting a foe when even your officers doubt the sincerity or legitimacy of your cause.

Only the dead ones. And as is a Russian tradition, they are very tight lipped about it.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Some details about the Kherson counteroffensive from Zelenskyy adviser Aleksey Arestovych (via War Translated):

Kherson area: The UAF have taken Vysokopillya, Pot’omkyne and Ol’hyne. The Russians have fallen back to Novopetrivka. The UAF has taken DNR army POWs and this is good because they can be exchanged for Ukrainians in Russian captivity. These are not the only 3 more settlements that were taken by the UAF, but Arestovich says he will not say which until the Ukrainian general staff officially announces it.

Aims of the offensive: The current stage of the operation should not be measured by the amount of territory taken, as for now its aims are: the capture of better staging grounds for the employment of Ukrainian reserves in future offensives, the destruction of Russian logistics and rear areas, and lastly isolating the operational theatre. The Ukrainian spokesperson for the south has said that the Russian forces in Kherson are in a state of “operational encirclement”. Arestovich compares the Russian collapse to a boulder rolling down a mountain. At first, it is slow but as it gains inertia it travels faster and faster as a result of its own weight. Arestovich says that this stone is still in the slow stage but once it starts rolling the collapse will be significant. He believes it will become “very interesting” in 3-4 weeks.

…

Arestovich says that there are 20k Russian soldiers in the “encirclement” who cannot properly coordinate or be supplied by Russian forces on the other side of the Dniepr. All crossings and pontoon bridges are under Ukrainian artillery control and are quickly destroyed. A manifestation of the Russian army’s crossing problems is the fact that civilian vehicles are forbidden to use the crossings to try to prevent civilian spotters and speed up the supply process. The amount of supplies expended on a daily basis far exceeds the potential for supply. The Russian high command is reacting and sending all available forms of river crossings to Kherson from pontoon bridges to barges and inflatable craft. However, this will not be enough. Supplies are getting through but not enough. The Russian grouping of forces in Kherson needs around 4000 tonnes of supplies daily to function, but Arestovich believes that less than 1000 tonnes are getting through. The grouping receives 30-40% of its needs. Furthermore, the pressure that Ukrainian forces are exerting on the Russians along with strikes on logistical targets by Ukraine accelerates the logistical collapse. According to Arestovich the Russians have lost 1500 killed and wounded in the first four days of the operation. At some point, the grouping will collapse.

Day 194, September 5. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast. •...

The NASA live fire map shows current fires at the Darivka bridge that crosses the Inhulets river:

The location in happier times:

[hajario]

That’s an interesting article. I’m surprised that they are giving away so much information including the overall strategy. Is it because it’s obvious or there is a tactical reason to do it or…?

[aceplace57]

Ukrainian counter offensive planning and war-gaming is paying off. I agree the operational details have to be carefully protected.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics/ukraine-us-wargames-counteroffensive/index.html

I think the UN and IAEA needs more on.site observers. It may be the only way to deter shelling. Zaporizhzhia has to be one of the most urgent priorities for the IAEA.
Guardian blog

• Four of the six UN mission members at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have left the site, Energoatom, Ukraine’s state enterprise operating all four nuclear power stations in the country, has said. The remaining two IAEA experts will stay on a permanent basis, it said. The agency is drawing up a report to be released this week.

[scabpicker]

Yeah, I was surprised at the amount of information provided. I wonder if someone will get a talking to, at least.

[Gorsnak]

Multiple possibilities, but we can obviously conclude that the Ukrainians think it advantageous to release the information. Maybe they think there’s nothing the Russians can do about the logistical situation, so announcing it is worth it for the morale gains. Maybe they think the information will leak to the Russian forces and will further diminish their will to fight. Maybe the information isn’t actually true, and is being released as propaganda.

Just because the Ukrainians are the good guys in this conflict doesn’t mean that their propaganda is all true.

[Velocity]

Russia Is Buying North Korean Artillery, According to U.S. Intelligence

[smithsb]

I’m guessing the shipments will be by rail. Does the article mention the shipping method?

[silenus]

FedEx. The ammo will end up in Botswana.

[Seanette]

For some reason, I’m wondering about North Korean quality control.

[Northern_Piper]

it’s been field tested on Kim’s own relatives, if I remember correctly, so must be worth it.

[Cardigan]

@Seanette

For some reason, I’m wondering about North Korean quality control.

Nearly as good as that of the Russians, from what I’ve heard.

[Folacin]

@Seanette

I’m wondering about North Korean quality control.

I would expect it to be better (low bar, granted). Russia is driven by oligarch-led corruption, where everyone is trying to get rich.

North Korea is driven by loyalty to/fear of the Dear Leader (or whatever adjective the current guy uses) and possibly a belief that the West is chomping at the bit to invade. Artillery is apparently what they depend on, so while I wouldn’t expect great quality, the calculus is more like “money for me or buy a tank” in Russia and “make an artillery shell that goes boom as expected or get strapped to a gun to test the next one that comes off my line” in North Korea.

[hajario]

And the Norks probably truly believe that they are in imminent danger of invasion, the Russians not so much.

[Magiver]

@Gorsnak

Multiple possibilities, but we can obviously conclude that the Ukrainians think it advantageous to release the information. Maybe they think there’s nothing the Russians can do about the logistical situation, so announcing it is worth it for the morale gains.

They’re not releasing anything the Russians don’t already know. If supplies aren’t getting through then the lowest soldier on the ladder knows it.

If they can’t get supplies moved on the ground that means air drops and that isn’t going to work well for them. Ukrainian special ops teams with stinger missiles are probably already well hidden in anticipation.

[Northern_Piper]

There’s also the straight propaganda value for releasing information that the Russian soldiers on the wrong side of the river would read on-line. They can see the Ukrainians announcing that the noose is tightening on them, and their own army can’t help them.

[hajario]

Or they could think that it’s another Tokyo Rose. Regardless, people much smarter and experienced than I see a good reason for it so I’ll accept that.

[mordecaiB]

@Northern_Piper

it’s been field tested on Kim’s own relatives, if I remember correctly, so must be worth it.

[Cardigan]

@Magiver

If they can’t get supplies moved on the ground that means air drops and that isn’t going to work well for them. Ukrainian special ops teams with stinger missiles are probably already well hidden in anticipation.

Russian supplies are being moved over the Dneiper River using barge ferries ever since HIMARS attacks damaged the bridges. The bridges were damaged badly enough that they can’t be used by trucks or any vehicle bigger than a motorcycle. I heard a report on DW this morning where they estimated Russian forces are receiving about 30% of the fuel, ammo, and food supplies they received prior to the bridges getting taken out. Naturally the need for more supplies has increased considerably since the Ukrainian counter-offensive began to cause Russians to USE those supplies more rapidly.

I suspect the Russians would sooner withdraw their troops across the river from Kherson than lose any more of their 30 million dollar aircraft doing airdrops.