Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[Walken_After_Midnight]

There seem to be multiple Ukrainian counterattacks going on in various parts of the country.

[Cardigan]

Yes, I heard they actually crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and established a bridge head across the very same river that had given the Russians so many problems a couple months ago when they were assaulting the cities of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Ukraine also retook territory northeast of Bahmut.

And of course they have been retaking territory in the south near Kherson. There’s a news blackout from Ukraine on that front, but based mostly on what the pro-Russian telegram channels are reporting we know that Ukraine is moving along four main axis of attack. Ukraine is probably waiting to see whichever axis the Russians choose to send their reserves to and once they commit will respond by sending their own reserves to one of the other axis that the Russians aren’t sending their reserves to.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

@Velocity

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

So does this mean that it’s really China selling weapons to the Russians? At the very least they would have given their consent to North Korea I’m sure.

[gnoitall]

I dunno. Russia and North Korea share a small land border with a rail bridge, so technically NK can export anything that will fit on a train car to Russia without involving China at all.

North Korea–Russia border

It remains a fair question whether China would or wouldn’t stick their nose into the transaction.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Between Kharkiv and Izyum, the Ukrainians appear to have some Russians encircled. From the Wagner Group-affiliated Grey Zone Telegram channel:

At the moment, Balakleya is in operational encirclement and in the zone of fire destruction of Ukrainian artillery. All entrances are cut by fire.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

The video of supposed dead Ukrainian commandos from the mythical “Enerhodar raid” that Russians were posting about, and that I said looked staged, has been revealed to be a fake - but a Ukrainian fake.

Aric Toler

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Julian Röpcke🇺🇦

[Walken_After_Midnight]

From today’s Arestovych broadcast:

“Serious trouble” has befallen the Russian soldiers near Balakliya. They are, quoting Arestovich “totally f#cked”. The Russians have retreated to the east of Balakliya. Russian reserves are being redeployed there by the high command but “a lot of surprises await them there”. There are a lot of Russian POWs and KIA. The Ukrainian offensive in Balakliya threatens Izyum, and if Ukrainian artillery can be positioned in Balakliya, they can reach Kup’yansk. This is the main supply artery of all the Russian troops in the Izyum/northeast Donbas area. This would cause severe problems for the Russians. However, it is still too early to judge in terms of the success of the offensive since it is only the first day, and it is likely that the Russians will try to mount a counterattack. However, to take this town in a single day is a great success since it took the Russians several weeks to take towns of equivalent size. The Ukrainians used a new tactic that Arestovich will not disclose yet to capture the town

Balakliya is “not the only place where surprises are happening” but just the one that has received the most attention. These “surprises” [offensive operations] are now along the whole front line. The only place where the Russians are currently attacking is the Bakhmut direction, everywhere else the front line is either stationary or the Ukrainians are advancing. The only area without offensive actions is the Zaporizhzhia region, but HIMARS and artillery are conducting strikes there.

Day 195, September 6. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast. •...

Also:

The Russians are creating blocking detachments of Kadirovite [Chechen] troops to “ensure the morale of their own troops”. In reality, this will simply cause shootouts between Russian troops.

Barrier troops

[aceplace57]

Got everyone focused on Kherson. Then they attack strongly at Balakliya.

Very nice strategy.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

The NASA fire map for the last 24 hours shows fires at the bridge that the Russians would need to exit Balakliya from. There’s also reports that Ukrainians are attacking Shevchenkove and Savyntsi, which also show fires.

Wagner Group-affiliated Telegram channel: “do not expect good news today”.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

War video montage:

Igor Kyivskyi

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Meanwhile, back to Kherson region, here’s the latest assessment from Russian ultranationalist and 2014 protagonist Igor “Strelkov” Girkin (from his Telegram channel):

In the area of ​​the enemy bridgehead on the Ingulets River, the enemy continues to slowly but surely push our units. For the first half of the day, the situation looked like this:

Ukry was occupied by:
Sukhoi Stavok, Bezymennoye, Kostromka, Schastlivoe (Karlo-Marxovskoye). Attempts to knock them off the bridgehead and return positions before the start of the offensive failed.

Such a deep advance of the enemy threatens to break through the front in the future to Chkalovo (already practically at the forefront) and further to Berislav with a dissection of our grouping in this area.

[aceplace57]

Pro Russians are acknowledging the loss of territory?

Thats ok with me.

[Fiendish_Astronaut]

@aceplace57

Pro Russians are acknowledging the loss of territory?

It must be an absolutely catastrophic situation for the Russians in that region.

[Machine_Elf]

@aceplace57

Pro Russians are acknowledging the loss of territory?

Well, not all of them:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/06/china/li-zhanshu-vladimir-putin-china-russia-high-level-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html

[Euphonious_Polemic]

Yep, yep yep.

20,000 - 50,000 Russian troops killed, according to different estimates. Big deal. They never existed.

Unknown number of Russian troops encircled and cut off from resupply, and likely to be taken prisoner in the next week.

I wonder what the number of seriously wounded is.

1,000 - 2,000 tanks destroyed.

Russia’s military reputation rapidly sinking towards the earth’s core.

Putin is sounding more like Baghdad Bob.

[Machine_Elf]

@Euphonious_Polemic

Putin is sounding more like Baghdad Bob.

Or the little kid that gets hit and runs away yelling “that didn’t hurt!”

[Horatius]

…of value. They’ve lost nothing of value.

To Putin, anyways. Thousands of troops? Hundreds of tanks? A Trifle.

[Hypno-Toad]

First we defeated the enemy 100 km away. Then we defeated them 80 km away. Then we defeated them 40 km away. Soon, we will be able to hear the sound of our guns defeating the enemy.

[Cardigan]

Increasingly commentators on the war are acknowledging the momentum has now shifted to Ukraine. Clearly not the 72 hour decapitation planned for by Putin six months ago.

Ukrainian Troops Advance in East as Kyiv Seizes the Initiative (msn.com)

I can’t find a link now, but earlier today I saw video, from a decidedly pro-Ukraine Youtube blogger, which featured a document that was purportedly from the Russian government that listed payment amounts for the 48,756 (or some very similar specific number) deceased service members families and projected survivors benefits to be paid out over the next year. The projection calculated payments averaging around 8,000 KIA per month.

No idea if the document is legit, but if so that places the ‘actual’ casualty figures only slightly below the 50,000 claimed officially by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

Has anyone else seen news of this document, or is it too good to be true?

I’ll look around more to see if I can find it and post a link here.

EDIT: found a link with it. This video references it around 40 seconds in:

Day 196: Ukraine War Map - YouTube