Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Here’s the document:

Firstly, can’t be sure it’s authentic. Secondly, as mentioned in comments, there could be differing compensation for ranks, e.g. there could be a higher compensation rate for generals.

Thanks for the link

Well, the US armed services don’t differentiate ($100,000), there is no reason the Russian’s couldn’t (but it seems a poor choice to do so from a morale perspective (plus the generals have a lot more opportunities to line their pockets while alive, so unfair from that view point also)).

Yes, what with blocking battalions and 5 year old rations, it is clear that Russia puts morale of its soldiers high on the list.

Read somewhere that one big way in which America assisted Ukraine was by running simulations or wargaming on behalf of the Ukrainians before the counteroffensive, so that they could game out the best strategies before actually doing a single thing.

Yes, I read that article somewhere. Apparently one of the strong recommendations was to be much more narrowly focussed than the Ukrainians had originally planned. Instead of a broad front counter-offensive, have much narrower targets where UKr forces could be more effective.

“The beatings shootings executions will continue until morale improves.”

Could be then, although I’m not sure what the actual compensation figures are.

It was reported early in the war that Putin had decreed that compensation to families for Russian KIA would be 5 million rubles (USD 45,000 when article written; USD 82,000 now). However, the amount that it’s frequently quoted that families are actually getting is more like RUS 10,000 (USD 130 before; USD 165 at current rate).

Tucker Carlson as of this Monday:

“Here’s the weird thing: by any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine,” Mr Carlson said during his show on Monday as he lambasted European leaders for imposing sanctions against Russia. “He is winning the war in Ukraine…”

Washington Post article, looks like Ukraine counterattacked either too soon, or with too little armament. They’re still making good progress, but suffered a heavy toll because of the Russian built-in defensive advantage.

I’m no military expert but taking territory is much much harder than defending it so increased Ukrainian casualties is an inevitability. But the longer Ukraine waits the more entrenched the Russians become, increasing that defensive advantage further.

Thanks for letting us know what Comrade Carlson has been told to feed us.

Now we know for sure that Russia is losing badly.

Reminds me of this old Onion article:

What Tucker Carlson is doing is something that many people on this board are steadfastly refusing to do – namely, acknowledging that the part of the price of the war is being paid by people who have nothing to do with the war.

“Falling apart” is an exaggeration (so far), but–

Putin is probably right. They haven’t lost any RUSSIAN territory since the start of the war. Ukrainian land, well that’s a different story.

It depends what you mean by “have nothing to do with the war”. If Europeans feel that if Russia takes Ukraine, and Russia looks further west, they may well feel they have something to do with the war.

Also, when you consider that the population of Ukraine didn’t seem to do anything but live in a country adjacent to Russia that didn’t want to be under their control, they really don’t have much blame for the war either. They’re paying dearly. If higher prices and some minor inconveniences are all the burden I have to bear: I have gotten off easily, and will count my lucky stars.

It can be much worse than that. In the near term of the coming winter. In the long term effects on the basic economic stability of many countries.

This winter. Lack of energy for human comfort and health. Economically, Germany for one will face higher energy costs and shortage of supply going forward. It has had an economic edge for quite some time, due to access to cheaper Russian gas. Going forward it will not have that edge. Exports may drop as a result. The economic reverberations of this war and sanctions are destabilizing a lot of things, small and very large. China can now add more cheap Russian energy to its cheap labor and increase its export edge.

More countries are bypassing U.S. dollar and Euro in trade settlements. Bypassing the SWIFT system. These things may continue to increase whatever the final result of the war. Lessening economic leverage and or enticement that could be used instead of force. A less mutually assured construction or destruction of national economies.

Post war situations and agreements may increase military spending. Military tensions. Sanctions may continue or even grow. Negative feedback all over.

A lot of big changes are happening fast. Major negative fallout can happen. Worse in Europe. But it will be everywhere.

yes, those are risks, which Europeans may well face. As opposed to the risk of Russia continuing to expand westward in a pattern of irredentism.

Do you have a cite for this?