I’m pretty sure they aren’t the same person. Different nose shape, among other things.
The captured guy is a Lieutenant colonel (Podpolkóvnik).
Here’s the video the screenshots come from:
You sure about that? The two men appear to have exactly the same two moles on the left side of the face, and the ears look identical. I don’t see much difference in the nose that can’t be ecplained by blood/dirt and shadow.
If you are trying to inject disinformation into the information stream, milbloggers would be the perfect way to do it. Any official or military source would be more suspect.
A fake retreat followed by encirclement should worry the Ukraine generals, but I’m sure they are already looking at that. Maybe the intel is legit, but basing decisions on Russian sources, milblogger or not, would be stupid.
On the other hand, Russian morale is in the toilet, the forces are exhausted, so breaking and running in the dace of a large counteroffensive headed your way is certainly a plausible explanation.
It will be worth it. Putin has single handedly united European countries in the desire to sever energy ties with Russia over the next 3 years. Spain is already stepping up with there LNG ports that can feed Europe with natural gas brought in from the Mediterranean.
There are significant sources of oil and natural gas in Canada and the US to help with winter shortages. Whatever it takes to stop Putin.
I don’t see Russians recovering from this unless they topple their corrupt government and join Europe as product free people.
I’m also pretty sure that eyes in the sky are looking at it, and info being fed to UKr.
Yes, agreed. I’m pretty sure that Ukraine does not just happen to know by luck exactly where to fire missiles to hit valuable supplies. Intel (eyes in the sky) has probably been quite valuable all along.
Europe may be able to find alternative sources. Unfortunately they will all likely be more expensive than piped energy. If Russian energy input is successfully subtracted from the majority of markets, the remaining energy will go up in price at source, then add in more expensive transport schemes.
Some of which may take time to implement.
Over a much longer term, it may come back closer to pre war costs. But in the meantime it will cause some fairly bad economic troubles. Which can often lead to social, political troubles.
Too many countries are already in deep debt.
Time for a debt jubilee? What fun that might be…
My personal opinion on the Ukraine counter offenses. Just my opinion, due to such marked conflict of reports.
Too must cost in lives and material for too little gains militarily. But maybe a better outcome as far as gaining continuing input of military and monetary support from other countries.
There are two major fronts. Military and political. Showing an ability to conduct an offense, may help gain more input from other countries. Regardless of the overall military standard of success.
Short term pain with some gain. For longer term maybe better gain.
But I remain pessimistic.
I’d put it this way … if europe manages to cope this winter (my guess is they will, we just forgot that europe made it through dire 1920ies, 30ies, 40ies and 50ies), than russia’s energy exports will fall like a oligarch from the 16th floor window 
… you have a product that is basically non-transportable (without a dedicated infrastructure) … and it will take years and years to build new pipelines to new markets.
Russia is in a wold of economic and military hurt - and is a huge change-agent for Europe’s energy market … they might have (unadvertedly) managed to compress a 25 year transition process for Europe into 2-3 years…sure it will sting and bite a while, but Europe will just rip the proverbial bandaid off in short time and move on …
probably a good analogy: Brasil’s (basically) monopoly on rubber in the early 20th century that became pretty fast pretty obsolete once rubber got produced synthetically on an industrial scale.
if this war has showed something than it is that “ukraine is militarily outsmarting russia by 1 or 2 orders of magnitude” … so I am not too worried …
and that huge uptick of military assets the russians leave behind while turning on their heels will come back to bite them
This is the part that a lot of doomsayers seem to be missing. Sure, in the last few decades, development of infrastructure has taken years and years, because there wasn’t a lot of pressure to do things fast, and there were competing interests that had to be negotiated with.
But we’ve been at relative peace for so long, we’ve forgotten what it means to be on a war footing. Building infrastructure is no longer just about getting the most bang for your buck, at the least cost in other factors. Now, it’s a matter of national security. International security. I remember seeing a sign from WWII, “Waste anything but time.” We’re rich enough that we can just throw money at the problem, if we want to, and right now, we want to.
And once that stuff is built, it will stay built. Five years from now, the idea that Russia could hold Europe hostage with gas pipelines will seem quaint.
There are reports that the Ukrainians now control Horokhovatka, where a bridge crosses the Oskil River. Izyum is now cut off from the north.
This is a Russian milblogger map. I added the circle at Horokhovatka.
It’s going to be challenging for Ukraine to hold that territory. Maybe they will if Russian forces GLOCS have been cut. Losing communication cuts off the head of the snake.
I finally found a full definition.
- Russian gains have been tiny and incremental since the fall of Lysychansk. There is no reason to think that they’ll be able to mount a more effective offensive in a region they’ve just been demonstrated to be very weak.
- This entire fight is about Russian GLOC to Izium. If Ukraine takes Kupiansk (and they’re knocking on the door) then Izium is almost entirely cut off. The bridge circled in the post above yours is the last major road connecting Izium to Russian-held territory. There are a couple minor roads south of the Oskil Reservoir, but they would be subject to interdiction from the south being well within conventional artillery range of Ukrainian forces operating out of Sloviansk.
This operation is a giant nightmare for Russian plans. Their key goal up til now was to take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as part of their ambition to hold all of Donetsk Oblast for the DNR. Being able to put pressure on Sloviansk from the north through Izium has been a key part of that. Now rather than being a source of offensive pressure, Izium is very nearly operationally encircled.
Yes, I understand the importance of cutting off Izium. There’s been a lot of discussion about the strategic highway intersections and rail hubs.
Wikipedia says Izium fell under Russian control May the 3rd 2022. It’ll be quite an accomplishment for Ukraine to take it back.
Cite Izium - Wikipedia
Since Kupiansk is a major rail hub. Maybe Ukraine will capture supplies and equipment waiting to ship?
Hopefully the Russians will flee without taking time to blow up all the warehouses and rail cars.
Voluntarily, or at gunpoint? It’s hard to know.
Which civilians are being evacuated?
Russian speakers fleeing “home” towards Russia?
Or Ukrainian speakers being rounded up and “evacuated” to prison camps in Russia?
And why are we only hearing this from Russian sources?
This seems like something that American military intelligence state publicly (without revealing military secrets).It would only require a few aerial photographs of civilian traffic, and a little eavesdropping to civilian cell phones.
Sounds like an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to
Bomb the crap out of them on the highway. Use drones or HIMARS Hit them as they cross the Russian border.
Cite Russia sends reinforcements to Kharkiv to repel Ukraine counterattack | Ukraine | The Guardian