Highway of Death II.
For a competent russian soldier, any highway is a Highway of Death …
don’t believe me?
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(love the part where they are sowing russians just like they were turnips)
this was my first thought also …
the Ukr. will better know where and when the column goes than the russian leadership and provide them a warm - to hot - welcome
… quite possibly even on russian turf
… just because!
So? Russia has held gas supplies over Europe’s head in the past. The time for change is now and forever. That’s going to change rapidly and if it costs more in the short term then it will be worth it to be rid of energy dependence on a country that uses the money to attack other nations.
For Russia maybe. It won’t be the first time Europe and the sons and daughters of the British Empire came together for a common cause. Russia would benefit from some social and political troubles.
This sounds nice and brave, but I wonder if it is true in today’s world.
How willing are people in 2022 to actually suffer physical pain every day, in order to support a common cause which does not directly affect them?
Unheated houses are painful to live in.
Sure, it’s not as painful as the Blitz in 1941. But today’s world is vastly different, and tolerance for pain is different. A loss of internet connection for 10 minutes sends people into a panic. Not being able to access Facebook causes deep,deep distress.
Most private houses in Germany are heated with gas, and people are used to a steady supply. When the snow falls this winter, will most citizens proudly accept the pain of living in a house at 40 degrees (5 Centigrade)?
Or will they tell their politicians " find a way to deliver enough gas here, RIGHT NOW!", and forget the morality. Supporting the poor innocent Ukrainians is nice, but dammit, we don’t want to suffer physical pain just so they can be free.
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In 1941, lots of people thought that the US was a nation of nothing but playboys and soda jerks, who wouldn’t have what it takes to even fight a war, let alone win it. I’m hoping you know how that turned out.
Or will they find other ways? Perhaps heat with firewood, and/or gather together in smaller houses that are cheaper to heat, and/or survive rationing (maybe only turn the heat on at night), etc. I think they will find options in between freezing and bowing to Russia, painful as it may be.
holy moly, things a evolving rapidly … remember the map (some 20 posts up) … it has been updated:
here is a sequence of 3 maps (y’day, today 9.00h, today 15.00h) - again, those are maps from pro-russian telegram channels, so there is incentive to minimize any Ukr. successes.
as somebody who grew up there(abouts) … yeah - they will find other solutions, trivial things like those $50.00 electric radiators and then heat 1-2 rooms in the house instead of 8 rooms…
I am fairly sure very few people will freeze to death as houses in europe tend to have rather good thermal isolation.
Those electric heaters would represent an additional load to an electric grid that is already overstressed.
The best hope the people of Europe have for this winter is that they do not get another doldrum in the north sea like the recently had, and that the winter remains relatively mild.
Or, that the war ends quickly and gas deliveries resume.
European leaders are already screwing up by putting a cap on profits of power producers. That might as well be a restriction on energy production. Meddlers never seem to learn the fundamental rules of economics. Next up: Printing more money to ‘ease the burden’ on peoole, which will have the effect of reducing the incentive to conserve while increasing inflation.
So, to solve a power crisis they are taking actions that will increase demand and reduce supply. With leadership like that, no wonder Europe is in the position it finds itself.
I just read that it’s possible Ukraine has already re- entered Izyum. If so, Putin might be at the negotiating table quicker than we thought, Let’s hope so.
From today’s Arestovych:
Izyum, Lyman, Yampil…
There’s so much going on right now, and reports of successful Ukrainian advances in the Kharkiv offensive.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but there’s a difference between merely allowing producers to make a healthy profit and letting them make a rapacious profit.
Let’s say that Hypothetical European Gas Producer Corporation (HEGPC) originally made a profit of, oh, I don’t know, 2 euros per MMBTU. Now, thanks to winter and Russia screwing around, Europe now allows corporations to pump out gas and sell it for a profit of 6 euros per MMBTU. Every gas corporation would be jumping on that - your profits have tripled. They would pump in unlimited gas all day long. The only thing Europe isn’t allowing is some sadistic profiteering like raking in 14 or 20 euros of profit per MMBTU, which would price out and freeze many customers.
I assume the mechanism for ‘capping profits’ will be to force them to keep prices lower? If so, that will stimulate demand. Or are the governments just going to take their profits away from them? If so, that will reduce incentive to find every btu of production they can. If not, one way they can cap profits is to simply stop producing more energy after they hit their profit cap. Is there another way of doing this that I’m missing?
It will also in the longer term reduce investment in new forms of energy production. And if the government gives the profits back to the people in the form of energy rebates, it will increase demand.
But we are hijacking the thread here. If you want to respond to this, maybe puck one of the threads dedicated to Europe’s energy issues.
completely agree … just to get you a feeling for the moneys involved: Norway (the country) is making so much extra $$$$ by backfilling europe with oil, they could write every norwegian citizen a check over $40,000.00 and still have some money left over … and yes, thats just 5-odd months of the delta they are covering.
you NEED to skim that windfall cream and re-distribute it to the bottom of the pyramid to alleviate the not so well off’s energy-cost (or you might find oil-refineries burnt down by a flash-mob ;o) ).
Energy companies have done nothing different than last year, yet make twice or 3times the money - doesn’t make sense.
again, anectotical … but for all of you asking how organized or panicky the russians are re-treating…
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… you think you have seen the apex of incompetence … and yet the russians manage to surprise us every day …
There are no fundamental rules in economics, just ideology. It is not a science. No worries, we in Europe have ways to cope. Yes , a cold winter will hurt us economically but not to the point of freezing to death. The whole idea of Europe ceasing to support Ukraine due to gas shortages is Russian propaganda, in my view, i do not see that happening.
I am astounded at the clueless judgement of the European situation and attitudes across the pond.
Russian WarGonzo reporter says there’s only one route out of Izyum and that he’s going to try and escape through it in the dark, which he admits will be dangerous.
I’m sorry, but what is the significance of these pictures? I have no military experience.
This is the tweet that preceded it: