Thank you.
If I’m not mistaken, the tweets are saying that the Russians left behind a massive ammo depot without blowing it up on their way out. Leaving your ammo stockpiles for the enemy to use against you is sub-optimal.
if you retreat in an organized way, you take all your assets with you, or destroy them … but you dont leave $50.000.000 worth of ordenance behind that WILL be used against you …
If you have just ONE smart and dedicated guy - one match is all you need to avoid gifting those to your enemy which is right behind you …
Well, at least the Russians can win a fight against a tree.
There are ONLY 2 ways of restricting demand.
- Raise prices as high as necessary to balance supply & demand.
- Rationing.
In this instance, Europe is very likely to see involuntary rationing through brownouts and blackouts.
Is that ordinance compatible with Ukrainian weapons?
I don’t know about that, but I do know it’s no longer compatible with Russian weapons, due to physical proximity constraints.
the jury is still out on that one …
short answer: YES
long answer: yes, b/c the Ukr. and Rus. once were the same Soviet Army … and hence use the same weapons (in 80% of the cases) … which is also the same reason former eastern-block countries can send their ordinance and weapons to Ukr. to be used without special training …
I don’t know about that, but I do know it’s no longer compatible with Russian weapons, due to physical proximity constraints.
that specific limitation might be mitigated in a split-second
Russian state TV reacts to the recent Ukrainian successes:
Sounds like they’re trying to whip up “patriotic” feeling to rally support, I suppose, for a greater mobilization and tougher measures.
Yeah. It sounded like FOX news, only with the Russian versions of Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, etc. Only that last guy took it further by reminding the viewers that Stalin would order people shot for panicking.
But then it’ll violate the relative velocity constraints. Can’t win 'em all.
I particularly enjoyed the moment at 4:05 where Solovyov complains about the military industrial complex having a budget of more than ONE BILLION DOLLARS! And then gets corrected by his guest.
Also the guy saying “Losing Kupyansk is no big deal, it’s not like it’s the capital of Russia”. Have their standards for success dropped so much that they have to compare losses against losing Moscow?
That was another great moment. As soon as the Kadyrovite was done, they cut to their military analyst (who actually knows what he’s talking about) who immediately said that guy was wrong, and explained why this is really serious.
just to put Kupyansk into conext … it might not be Moscva, but it is a very relevant place
here a railway map:
I am concerned that Ukraine forces are going too deep and narrow in the North East offensive. Smaller forces are doing deep hit and runs far to the east. But armor and artillery support is moving far slower. The support is also having to cross over bridges. It is suspicious that the Russians have not yet destroyed the bridges. Given Russian air superiority, they could have destroyed the bridges at any time. Are they letting the armor and artillery cross? Then blowing the bridges after they are trapped east of them? I think the Ukraine commanders will know of such a tactic, they are no fools. But they are moving east.
I suspect that there are more HIMARS and other material in place than has been advertised. Which would be a wise thing. No need to exactly itemize the equipment list to the enemy. So there may be more long range attack options for the Ukraine forces than at first thought. But large amounts of artillery movement is hard to hide. Ukraine forces are driving deep into a Russian pocket. There are rail lines direct from Russia to the area. Already reports of large Russian movements to the fronts. Without the need to take from other front line forces.
The next week may be very difficult for Ukraine forces to maintain their gains.
I cannot see a longer term tactical method to keep these gains. Unless there is some external measure of force that is expected to come into play.
Yeah, that’s never been a given, at all. It’s a fantasy, at best.
And if that wasn’t clear, the rest of your concerns hinge on this fantasy. Russia doesn’t have air superiority, so they can’t make any high accuracy strikes on those bridges without exposing themselves to a great deal of risk. risk that they haven’t seemed willing to expose themselves to. If they had anything approaching air superiority, they’d be flying attacks over Kyiv every day. They haven’t, so they don’t have it. Probably never will.
Even the Ukraine official military reports will count Ukraine air sorties of 20 to 40 a day, versus Russian air sorties of 200 a day.
It is no fantasy at all, that Russia has air superiority in this war. In the first days of the war, they destroyed a large portion of Ukraine air forces with long range missile attacks. It was a priority.
Ukraine has been equipped with a lot of MANPADS, but they are shorter range. An air attack on bridges can be out of range of such munitions. Longer range air defenses are being used for more important defense of sites. Of course the bridges supporting an offensive are important. But are the stronger air defense units being placed there?