Russia has completely withdrawn from the entirety of Kharkiv Oblast except for the sliver on the east bank of the Oskil River. That withdrawal has not been at all orderly, and it will take time before the forces involved are in any shape to threaten anything. Ukraine is in no more danger of losing its newly liberated territory than it is in danger of losing the territories north of Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv following the Russian “goodwill gesture” retreat after the Ukrainians won the battle for Kyiv - which is to say, it’s not impossible for the Russians to again attack those areas, but it isn’t in any position to do so given the current state of the war.
I also don’t think Russia will make much if any effort to reclaim Kharkiv territory. I think they will abandon that sliver too. But this offensive will force them to harden that line very heavily. Will they take forces from elsewhere, or bring in more forces? What is up with that 3rd army? Is it a big deal? Is the Russian air force going to seriously kick in at some point?
The Battle of Kharkiv is over. In six days, Ukraine drives north to the Russian border, and east to the Oskil River.
I think it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Svatove. The Kharkiv Offensive has forced the Russians to retreat from Kharkiv Oblast, so their plans for a Kharkov People’s Republic are now a pipe dream. Svatove is in Luhansk Oblast, though, and therefore part of the Donbas, Russia’s primary and minimum objective in the war. Russia recognises its puppet Luhansk People’s Republic as a sovereign state, and therefore Svatove as part of its de jure territory. The idea of withdrawing from Svatove to a better defensive position would therefore appear to be out of the question - surely, they have to put up a fight there. If Ukraine takes Svatove it will have great symbolic significance and also be an indicator of Russia’s military capability in this axis, or lack thereof.
No, for many reasons, including the variety of different ground-air portable systems available to shoot them down. Also, I suspect that the maintenance of the Russian airforce, might just be as poor as the maintenance to their armored tanks. And poorly maintained aircraft fare quite poorly when pushed in combat.
Rail network in eastern Ukraine with approximate areas of control:
Cutting off the rail line somewhere south of Grakovka looks tempting.
If Ukraine can have some fire control over the parallel one to the west, that would be good. But the eastern one may be out of effective reach as it goes south. Have not found a detailed map with smaller spur lines. But there must be many. A lot of Luhansk does seem more vulnerable to supply by rail.
Russia has probably not fully recovered from the economic collapse that led to the Soviet collapse in many ways. But I think a lot of people underestimate how much it has. The military there has undergone a lot of changes. It still has some older tactical concepts that may be outdated with some opponents and situations. But it cleaned up and updated other things. I do think that it has a lot of substandard aircraft that cannot be as effective in a lot of modern scenarios. But definitely not totally ineffective. One has to consider the area of conflict and the resources available and in what quantity.
Good thing I never said it’s totally ineffective.
It’s just shitty.
So what do Kremlin watchers have to say about how Putin is taking all this? Anything conspicuous in either his appearances or lack of them?
Horseshit. Absolute horseshit. People in Russian occupied territories want the brutal war criminals to get the fuck out. Maybe back in early February there were Russian sympathizers who would have welcomed the political realignment, but six months of indiscriminate murder, destruction, and abuse at the hands of Russian thugs has disabused them of that fantasy.
I was travelling for a couple of days so I couldn’t write this sooner. Others have addressed this, but this is the theory.
Competent armies make all sorts of contingency plans, including what to do if they are forced to retreat. Specific units should have specific orders of how to handle stockpiles of ammunition, fuel and even food, anything that would help the enemy. This is just basic military doctrine.
Armies need to know how to retreat successfully and this is just as important as knowing how to attack successfully. Maybe even more important, because the potential for a catastrophe is greater. Armies being routed are at their most vulnerable stage.
Ideally, armies want to take supplies with them when they retreat, but they are less important than the troops, so not transporting them is understandable, but not blowing them up is really bad.
The fact that the supplies were left behind is telling, and perhaps even more meaningful than the amount of munitions themselves, although the exact amounts and types of weapons hasn’t been released. The fact that large quantities were abandoned demonstrates the disorganization and panic of the retreat.
When armies have opportunities for sudden charges forward, one major concern is if the enemy is preparing a trap or counterstrike when your armies are still vulnerable. This is behind the controversial order for the German tanks to stop and regroup outside of Dunkirk, for example.
While modern armies have other intelligence also available to them, these stores of supplies is a data point demonstrating the level of disorganization, incompetence, poor judgment, lack of leadership, inability to maintain order, and overall panic. Ukrainian commanders and military intelligence would likely factor this in with other intelligence on deciding how bold to be during this operation.
Reserve troops covering the rear areas are generally less effective, trained, prepared, etc., than front line troops and this gives a good idea of how bad their B level troops are. Which isn’t very good. That again adds to their assessment of the situation and factors into further operations.
War is also a battle for emotions, so for Russians, being forced into a panic retreat to the point of losing supplies is demoralizing for everyone, and causes troops to question their leadership. The reverse is true for the Ukrainians, as well as their sponsor countries.
It would best if the Russians redeployed to their side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. They’re “defending” stolen land. It’s not theirs to defend.
Putin and the Kremlin do not care about those lives. Isn’t that clear by now? All they care about is their own selves and their power. If thousands, or tens of thousands, of other people have to die to ensure that they’re OK with that.
On top of which - even when the Russians “evacuate” people they funnel them into concentration camps “filtration centers” that involve torture and execution, then involuntary relocation as far away as the Vladivostok area where the “evacuees” are restricted in movement. Yeah, great, the old internal exile routine. Tell me, how would you regard soldiers pulling you out of your home, dumping you in a camp, questioning and/or beating you for days, then relocating you thousands of kilometers away and then telling you that no, you can’t go anywhere else, you can never return home, you are now in this new place for their rest of your life?
That would carry more weight if there weren’t so very many examples of the Russians killing, torturing, raping, and looting, leaving hastily dug mass graves behind them. The Russians have not treated the civilians in the places they invaded at all well.
Given that the Russians are running away like rats abandoning a sinking ship that is not, at the moment, a problem for the Ukrainians. They’ll be able to add more troops quickly, and equip them with all the ordinance the fleeing Russians left behind (instead of blowing it up so the enemy couldn’t use it like real soldiers would)
No, the Russians need to go back home and stop trying to steal someone else’s territory. You’re defending theft.
I fail to see why the Ukrainians would follow the preferred strategy of an open Putin apologist. The Ukrainians are clearly getting excellent intel and advice, and not from you.
Ha ha ha ha ha - no.
Also -
Ya think? It would have helped if the kleptocrats hadn’t looted the economy.
Yes. We’ve noted the revolving door for generals in charge of this invasion fiasco.
Yeah. No kidding. You do realize their Black Sea Fleet was sunk by a country that doesn’t have a navy don’t you? The Russian military is looking ridiculous at this point. I mean, sure, they have real bullets and have really killed a lot of people. A lot of unarmed civilians. That is… less than impressive.
“Sub-standard aircraft” are useful for making smoking holes in the ground where they crash. They’re even less effective than poorly maintained tanks, of which Russia seems to have an abundance.
To be fair, the officers are only nominally in charge of the invasion, broadly speaking. What we’re seeing is the inevitable scapegoating of military leadership for failing to deliver on Putin’s ludicrous czarist fantasy.
unless I am mistaken (and thrown off by similar names), both Svatove and Starobil’sk’ are already in Ukr. hands as of sep 11
what you - and most pro-russians fail to see is that your troops are GONE … gone as in dead, wounded, put on civil clothes, stole a car and took off …
so there is no answer to the general’s question of where is the 123 motor rifle unit currently? the answer is 80% of them just walked off into different directions (most already in their adidas-uniform ;-), trying to pass as ukrainians ) the remainder cannot walk anymore and there is no way to contact all those guys - as they aren’t answering their cell-phones …
so russia might still have 20.000 paper soldiers there (cue in Hitler moving non-existent units over maps , but from an operations POV I’d venture a guess that its more 5.000 - so Ukr. DID take out 15.000 russian soldiers over the weekend)
Steiner!!! Steiner will be here any moment …
have we finally arrived at the “whiney” stage?
… and not assaulting a peaceful country was not an option in that miserable russia?
Russia is bringing in experienced veterans (of their war in Afghanistan) 
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if true - that is BIG news … maybe not from a military POV - but that should hit russian social media and help people understand how dire things are for them …
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and that tweet is more like symbolic:
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relevant, too …
(my take … let’s not rush … time is on Ukr. side)
ISW is down again. I’m getting concerned it might be a DoS attacks. Or maybe there’s too much demand for information.
I’ve seen maps of the reclaimed Kharkiv region territory. I’m not sure if Izium is under Ukrainian control?
What’s next? Most of the Russian troops are in Kherson and Donbas.
I think there may be a pause while Ukrainian artillery go after targets in Donbas? There’s a lot of Russian resources that Ukraine can reach.