Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

There are unconfirmed rumors of Russian forces leaving Svatove, but Ukrainian forces have probably not reached it or liberated it yet. Starobilsk is a further 30 mi/50 km east behind enemy lines.

The BBC has a good summary. But events are moving fast. :blush:

There’s a link in my quote to the current British Ministry of Defense report

Maybe those people are Russian sympathizing Ukrainians / collaborators who were fleeing from the advancing Ukrainian army, rather than actual Russians?

Thank you for the detailed reply. Very helpful.

Rebuilding the damaged towns and cities will be a huge task.

It’s made worse because there’s always the possibility that Russia has withdrawn for now and will invade the Kharkiv region again next spring.

Russia reminded everyone yesterday that their cruise missiles can inflict a lot of damage. Even when their army is fleeing.

Russia also has the Black sea mined. This war may drag on for a long time.

I’m still amazed by Ukraine’s resilience and determination to reclaim their stolen territory.

The maps showing territorial gains are interesting. But I want to know about what is happening to the Russian forces. How many are dead? How many captured? How many wandering around confused? The proper aim of war is the opposing force, not the terrain.

Housing and feeding thousands of Russian POW’s will be challenging.

Doesn’t the Geneva Convention require an accounting of POW’s? Their names, rank, and service numbers.

I know they’ve just been captured and it will take time process that many soldiers.

Ukraine has applied to be a member of the EU. They have to follow rules that Russia ignores.

Anytime. Your explanations about law in various threads are always appreciated so if you have any military questions then I’m sure lots of people will be really happy to answer.

I’ve heard that Ukr. refused to allow the US to know too much about their plans even after incorporating our intel. Very smart. They’ve been doing a good job with misinformation and the social/Internet game.

Processing prisoners is just one of the challenges retaking that much occupied territory poses. As tempting as it might be to strike east rapidly seizing places like Grakovka or Starobilsk, consolidating their recent gains requires considerable resources. There are likely still lots of pockets of Russians in this territory still lurking about that have yet to be captured or killed, plus they’ve got to (re)establish in many cases basic infrastructure, remove mines or booby traps left in occupied areas, evaluate captured intelligence, recovering/reconditioning captured equipment, set up new logistics hubs of their own to support operations in captured territory, not to mention ensure any avenues of approach for enemy counterattacks are adequately defended. I wouldn’t be surprised to see things slow way down at this juncture, at least up north. Kherson, of course, is another matter.

I agree. Ukraine has to establish administrative control and build defenses in the Kharkiv region.

Creating temporary housing will be a huge task. I see so many pictures of people standing in front of bombed out buildings

“Perhaps it will confuse them if we run away more.”

Rumours that three Russian generals have removed their armies from the chain of command.

Might be hopeful nonsense, but my hope has led me to posting rumour on this breaking news thread.

Also: the Moscow Times has just reported that Putin has retreated to his Sochi mansion and cancelled meetings with his military staff.

Is there a bunker there? Tell us he’s in a bunker!

So far as I can tell, the reports of Russians leaving Svatove and Starobilsk stem from two things. First, someone raised a Ukrainian flag in Svatove. Probably a partisan of some sort. And second, a large convoy was spotted going south from Starobilsk. There’s video of both these things floating around on Twitter. But neither of them demonstrate much of anything. The unending stream of videos showing Ukrainian troops at town signs or mingling with civilians in liberated villages seems to have pretty much stopped, so it would seem that Ukraine is intent on consolidating their lines at the Oskil. Which is sensible, tempting though it must be to try to sweep east.

Difficult decisions to be made because when an army has been routed and are chaotically falling back they are very vulnerable indeed.

Yeah, seeing this on twitter. Example:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CarrieMac99/status/1569123350483554305

No source, no details, no way to corroborate.

Inclined to be skeptical. It wouldn’t be the first time some rando saw something innocuous, misinterpreted it, and caused the twittersphere to come unglued. If accurate, wow. But wait to verify.

The aim of war is to achieve the desired political end. In the case of Ukraine, that’s ending the conflict with pre-2014 borders. Neutralizing or eliminating the enemy’s forces is conducive to reaching that goal, but is not the goal itself.

That said, those who track these things on Twitter were posting ~100 vehicles/day visually confirmed as captured or destroyed over the past 3-4 days, including ~20 tanks/day and twice that number of IFV/APCs, plus a scattering of self-propelled guns, AA, and command vehicles. Plus a bunch of trucks, of course. Saw somewhere that POWs number in the thousands, but I doubt anyone including Ukrainian command really knows yet.

This is another reason why America should have gifted long-ranged 186-mile munitions like ATACMS. It would have enabled Ukraine to keep striking the retreating and vulnerable Russians while not actually forcing Ukrainian troops to move east and make themselves over-extended.

well, chances are …

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that does look bunker-ish … (and dwarfs the church to the bottom left!!!)

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for more: click here

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+1 to be sceptical (especially considering the source) … but sometimes those rumors going around in the mill turn out to be self-fulfilling prophecies …