I wonder how much the aging of the Russian military equipment had to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Russia has (had) a giant Soviet-era military with a modern military budget of a paltry (by superpower standards) 65 billion/yr. If he was ever going to take advantage of that giant military, it had to be soon before it was all obsolete or non-functional.
And it was probably too late anyway. His tanks were vulnerable to cheap ATGMs and kids with drones, the trucks are old and breaking down, the tires were out of date, etc. He maintained enough personnel to run that gigantic military only by under-paying them, under-training them, and by skimping on maintenance and upgrades. After Ukraine I think it’s safe to say that recruitment will take a big hit. And 50,000-65,000 of his soldiers are dead.
So this Ukraine fiasco looks like a one-and-done deal to me. Not that Russia won’t have a military going forwards, but there is no way he’s replenishing the losses he’s taken on a 65b military budget. Also, he has to maintain and modernize an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons on that budget if he wants to maintain superpower status. I’ll bet you at least half those missiles have been scavenged to keep the others going, if they are getting maintained at all.
If Russia gets pushed back put of Ukraine, it’s hard to see them regrouping and coming back in the spring. They just won’t have the combat power. And Ukraine will have the same amount of time to refresh, build its own stockpiles, and build more defenses.
Russia’s military will from this point forward be permanently smaller, more in line with countries like France, Germany, the UK, India, and Saudi Arabia. His big ex-Soviet military has not only shown itself to be much less impressive than people thought…
I think we might look back on the Ukraine war as the last gasp of the old Soviet military before it was a completely spent force and Russia became a military also-ran way, way behind the U.S. and China and on par with a dozen other countries.
Putin’s dream of a Russian empire is rusting in the fields of Ukraine.