Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

This. The invaders have been looting tractors, grain, and whatever else they could get their hands on ever since they arrived in February.

Good article by the Atlantic: Ukraine ingeniously baited Russia away from Kharkiv, and now has only seized Kharkiv by surprise but weakened Russia in both the east and south.

The operational security behind the Ukrainian’s move around Kharkiv rivals that of Operation Overlord. Nobody willing to talk, and certainly not the Russian war criminals, saw it coming.

I wonder how much the aging of the Russian military equipment had to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Russia has (had) a giant Soviet-era military with a modern military budget of a paltry (by superpower standards) 65 billion/yr. If he was ever going to take advantage of that giant military, it had to be soon before it was all obsolete or non-functional.

And it was probably too late anyway. His tanks were vulnerable to cheap ATGMs and kids with drones, the trucks are old and breaking down, the tires were out of date, etc. He maintained enough personnel to run that gigantic military only by under-paying them, under-training them, and by skimping on maintenance and upgrades. After Ukraine I think it’s safe to say that recruitment will take a big hit. And 50,000-65,000 of his soldiers are dead.

So this Ukraine fiasco looks like a one-and-done deal to me. Not that Russia won’t have a military going forwards, but there is no way he’s replenishing the losses he’s taken on a 65b military budget. Also, he has to maintain and modernize an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons on that budget if he wants to maintain superpower status. I’ll bet you at least half those missiles have been scavenged to keep the others going, if they are getting maintained at all.

If Russia gets pushed back put of Ukraine, it’s hard to see them regrouping and coming back in the spring. They just won’t have the combat power. And Ukraine will have the same amount of time to refresh, build its own stockpiles, and build more defenses.

Russia’s military will from this point forward be permanently smaller, more in line with countries like France, Germany, the UK, India, and Saudi Arabia. His big ex-Soviet military has not only shown itself to be much less impressive than people thought…

I think we might look back on the Ukraine war as the last gasp of the old Soviet military before it was a completely spent force and Russia became a military also-ran way, way behind the U.S. and China and on par with a dozen other countries.

Putin’s dream of a Russian empire is rusting in the fields of Ukraine.

It was just over a week ago that the Oryx count of lost Russian equipment passed 1000 tanks. Today, it’s on 1087 lost tanks.

My work has taken me here and there. But not in any uniform. I won’t be more specific, so you can conspire some more fun theories. But it ends up much more boring. For me as well :slight_smile:
But you might consider I have been and worked in places round the world. Not commenting from just my basement or cubicle.

Washing machine shows up wearing a ribbon outside the Russian embassy in Helsinki.

Called it.

AP 11 Sep 2022

Ukraine reclaims more territory, reports capturing many POWs

  • A spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian troops were surrendering en masse as “they understand the hopelessness of their situation.” A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.

And now this?
It is Zerohedge that I first see this. But does not mean it is not real.
Second proxy war front?

No way a Russian can get a nice washing machine.

Now we know where you’re getting your pro-Russia talking points from.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-accuses-financial-website-spreading-russian-propaganda-82898788

More Russian propaganda, via Washington Post?

I peruse dozens of sources. I also look at the sources they repost. Not just Twitter, Facebook and other social media.

You repeated that one already, and unless that was related to the looting, it was irrelevant, BTW the article from @Walken_After_Midnight refers to the Zero Hedge financial news website reporting that the Biden administration had evidence of that site amplifying Kremlin propaganda. Back then Zero Edge was minimizing the Russian moves to invade Ukraine. Based on what took place, the intelligence officials were correct. On top of that propaganda influence, they are not reliable either.

Overall, we rate ZeroHedge an extreme right-biased conspiracy website based on the promotion of false/misleading/debunked information that routinely denigrates the left. (8/18/2016) Updated (M. Huitsing 02/15/2022)

While all the points made about Russia’s reduced military capacity were reassuring to read, I did think the above was too optimistic: Ukraine will need to rebuild a lot of infrastructure as a priority, especially if Russia continues the cruise missiles into power plants, etc.

If aid from the West continues to pour into Ukraine after a Russian withdrawal, then it might be possible to do both (military and infrastructure), but I would imagine the priority would be the latter.

Time perhaps for Georgia to take back the land that Russia has stolen from them over the years.

UK (United Kingdom) Ministry of Defence says the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army has been severely degraded after this Ukrainian counteroffensive and will take years to reconstitute and rebuild.

The 1GTA was a prestigious unit, designed to protect Moscow and counterattack in the event of a NATO attack.

Russia is a spent force.

2nd day in a row. Looking ahead, significantly improving Ukraine’s air defenses has to be a top priority. The equipment will have to come in an arms/defense package.

Ukraine will never be safe when Putin can send missiles anytime he’s in a bad mood. He’s reminding Ukraine that its still vulnerable even with the Russian army hastily retreating.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased missile strikes as Russia tries to improve their negotiating position

The guardian blog

That does not deny what @Walken_After_Midnight pointed out, the point was the pro Russian bias about the war in Ukraine, not news about the clash of Azerbaijan and Armenia, try again.

Things go bad so mighty Vlad goes running off to Sochi, in his dacha by the sea, it must be nice to be two hundred miles from Crimeee
-a.