They could work there way across from the east. Attack south from their current position southeast of Kharkiv. Retake Mariupol, then go west towards Melitopol and eventually Kherson. But then they’d still have to cross that isthmus, which is likely to be problematic. They’d also have a longer border to defend (the Luhansk and Donetsk/ Russia border) while doing so.
The Dneiper River turns north at Zaporizhzhia and the Ukrainians control the land to the east of it, so they are already across the river. The Ukrainians will probably need to launch an offensive from here southwards towards Melitopol or Mariupol, which would cut off the Russians in southern Ukraine from supply via the Donbas. Then they would need to work their way westwards to get to the isthmus to Crimea.
Right. But without a navy, do the Ukrainians have any shot at all of crossing that isthmus?
Likely, but it would be the same troops and equipment that have also been problematic (for the Russians) since this whole affair started. You’d guess that they may have actual working equipment there, but you’d have guessed that about the other places, also.
I can see a general thinking - “Ah, those Ukrainian wimps will never have the balls to attack us, and I can get a pretty penny for a lot of this stuff.”
It might not be the Russian army defending it. It could very well be Sevastopol PD and ordinary citizens from Sevastopol and other parts of Crimea that show up and demand to be left alone in their homeland. That would present a much bigger problem.
There’s two roads and a railroad crossing the isthmus; that’s how the Russians have been supplying their forces in Kherson. If the retreating Russians fail to destroy them, or leave them in repairable condition, yes, the Ukrainians have a good shot at crossing. (There’s also the bridge at Chongar, crossing from the mainland to Crimea 60 miles or so east of Perekop, but I don’t know its condition or capacity.)
While the Russians have moved a lot of people into Crimea, there are still folks there who are Ukrainian-born and want to be left alone in THEIR homeland. Among today’s updates:
Sergey Aksenov, the Russia-appointed leader of occupied Crimea, said organizers and participants in pro-Ukraine rallies will “be held accountable.” He complained that videos from public events in Crimea show residents chanting pro-Ukrainian slogans and singing nationalist songs. That could lead to prosecution and dismissal from jobs, he said in a Telegram post. –USA Today, 12 Sept 2022
The narrow width of the isthmus would certainly make it much easier for the Russians to fortify and defend it.
I’m not sure how consequential naval forces would be, simply because there’s so much surrounding land from which anti-ship missiles could be launched.
The Isthmus of Perekop is marked by the measuring tool.
To the east of the isthmus is a large area of shallow lagoons - the Syvash.
From wikipedia:
In 1920, during the Russian Civil War, the Crimean Peninsula was the White movement’s stronghold. The Isthmus of Perekop was protected by a fortification system, so the Red Army mounted a surprise attack across the Syvash.
With the Syvash included, the width of the crossing to Crimea rises to 60 mi/95 km.
how does that fit into the bigge picture?
those are both russian territories, right? I know that there is the nagorny karabak conflict, but the information mentions late on that they are shooting outside this disputed area as well. How is that to be seen? Florida shelling Georgia? Texas shooting into Oklahoma?
is it starting to fall apart?
Azerbaijan and Armenia are both former Soviet republics, but they’ve been independent countries since 1991. This is more like China and India shooting at each other along their border.
If I’m not mistaken, Armenia is fonder of Putin than Azerbaijan is. With the Russian military in disarray, Azerbaijan may see this as an ideal time to settle scores with Armenia without risking Russian interference.
Yes. Hearing similar things from many sources. An odd mix of personnel and weapons. Seems some more experienced personnel are also joining up. Previous military experience. But mostly new recruits of various ages. But the equipment? Why is the supposedly newer equipment only now being sent in, with maybe less experienced personnel? Is this going top be swapped out to the more experienced, hardened current troops?
So hard to make sense of things on both sides.
The ones who just ran away? Or the ones injured who were returned to service too soon? Which hardened current troops exactly are you imagining?
Yes, it’s so hard to pick between the aggressor who invaded another country (Russia) and the defender who just wants to be left the fuck alone (Ukraine). The people you’re listening to and parroting are fucking WAR CRIMINALS.
I assumed it was a geographic joke, Kazakhstan being only a couple hundred miles due east of Ukraine across a skinny part of Russia.
Many top oil executives have been dying under mysterious circumstances the last few months:
I think I saw one reported as saying something negative about the war but, otherwise, the motive for murder would simply be that they’re part of the oil industry.
Any opinions on who is doing it or why? (Or whether it’s all just coincidence?)
Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is enemy action.
These guys are being killed by the GRU. Why? You’d have to ask Vlad, but I’d assume it’s because he sees them as threats.
Having spent a little amount of time in the beautiful city of Almaty and also in the wilderness of Kazakhstan. In Almaty there was quite a Russian flavor. But not overwhelming. Of course a lot of Russian large urban areas are becoming more western in character. As are Kazakhstan ones.
The “wilderness” area that I spent time in was right along the edge of desert to green area. Quite a step back in time from urban areas. I was in the desert area. Also I was with a Chinese contingent. My work put me in odd situations back then. In that area Russian or Kazakh was a moot point. You are tough or you are dead. But the folks were bilingual for the most part.
I hope it is ok to copy a post over from reddit (it’s very well thought out and touches an angle we haven’t discussed - and it’s in open domain 
Not just tons of ammo and equipment that was lost, but you can also guarantee that boatloads of intel containing the location of every ammo cache and HQ in the country, as well as upcoming plans were left behind, and actual reports for troop strength and losses.
Russia has to move every HQ and ammo cache, assume every encrypted form of communication now has UA and western intel agencies listening, and scrap every plan they’ve made and distributed, as they have no idea what intel was left behind, so they just have to assume it was all taken.
In terms of overall impact, the intel impact might be greater than the ammo and equipment they left behind.
this rationale makes a lot of sense …
.
unrelated (but it irks me)
lots of reports concerning looting while taking off towards the russian border
Well, but that was to be expected. Was going on even when they were supposed to be on the offensive and it’s Agressor 101 that you don’t stop to loot in the middle of the attack.
In a Russian/Soviet Army uniform?