Time for the Kazakhs to post signs along their western border:
“Ukrainians,
Advance No Further.
This Is Kazakhstan”
“We accept euros, dollars and lightly used Russian armor. Shopping hours are 9am-7:30pm M - F. Closed weekends.”
“PS - They went thataway!”
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I hope it’s true that the Russian military is reconsidering the war. A negotiated withdrawal in Kherson would save a lot of lives.
There’s also the Russian separatist rebels in
Donetsk and Luhansk. They won’t easily give up territory.
I wonder how many of the actual residents of Donetsk and Luhansk are really separatists, as opposed to being imported Russian troops / special ops who fomented the insurrection in the first place.
People have been moving into the region from Russia and the region has probably been bombarded with pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian propaganda for over a decade. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a fairly real anti-Ukraine contingent in the majority in the separatist areas. Trying to take those regions could seem more like an invasion than a liberation.
I don’t know that, that’s true. But it’s far from unthinkable, from what I’m aware.
ETA: Note that I am talking specifically about the separatist regions, not the entire Luhansk and Donetsk provinces.
this is currently the thesis that makes most sense for me …
kind of “fess up to reality” … stop talking about the 10s of 1000s of soldiers we are going to send to Ukr. that do not exist and that do not want to fight …
a logical (but not too probable) next step: let’s negociate … we will be out of Ukr (pre2014) within 1 week and you stop shooting at us
is it just me or are the Kazakhs just like russians^2 ???
what I have seen from them left me unimpressed
A cute joke, but it made me imagine a serious photo-op that could actually be effective:
A way to show the world, and the Russians, who has the moral high ground:
Zelenski should go to an area evacuated by the Russians, and re-conquered by Ukraine…all the way up to the original border.
Then take a picture of him, with a couple Ukrainian soldiers side by side…All of them standing in a line, each standing on one leg, with one foot on the Ukrainian side of the border, and the other foot raised up in the air, about to step across the border.
Then publish the pic with the huge caption–“NO we do NOT want to step across the border, we do not want to control any Russian land. We only want to stand proudly with both feet on our own land, forever”
Right now, it’s too early. But maybe in a week or two…
The West would love it. And maybe on Russian social media, the average mother of a wounded soldier would sympathize, too.
It would be a morale boost for the Ukrainians, too. They still have a lot of fighting to do, and lot of land to win back
After the “special military operation” I’ll bet there are a lot fewer of them, and they’re keeping their heads down. It’s not like the Russians will be of any help if Ukraine decides to deal with the separatists once and for all.
Likewise, US attacks on the Taliban made them mellow out and become more amenable to reason, rather than becoming more entrenched and strongly opposed to “the enemy”… 
It’s not like the Russians will be of any help if Ukraine decides to deal with the separatists once and for all.
How Russia defends the separatist regions - IMHO - will probably have a strong effect on how the locals end up viewing the matter. If the Russian army digs in and really tries to fight to keep the territory then, probably, the locals will feel like they should go with Russia. If the Russians ditch them and just try to protect Mariupol and the land South of Donetsk, then they’re probably going to feel a bit more positive towards Kyiv.
Thoughts from a Russia watcher:
Yeah, whether or not they are doing so in their by now trademark shambolic vodkastic manner it is likely the Russians eventually reestablish a defensible line and we get a frozen conflict at best.
It should be easy for someone who is better at Photoshop than I am, and has a Cyrillic font, to make a picture of a sign in terrain that looks like the area. (Then put a translation under, or superimposed on, the pic.)
I suspect “ditch them” is the most likely “best case scenario” for Russia at this point.
At the start of the war, I figured Russia’s real interests in gaining territory was two-fold: a land bridge to Crimea, and denying Ukraine a coast on the Black Sea. Sure, taking the whole country would have been nice, as would be installing a puppet regime in Kyiv, but all of that would have been in service of acquiring the two items above.
Now, I think they’d be happy to settle for just the land bridge part, if they can somehow force a stalemate that brings Ukraine to the negotiating table.
But even their best case is pretty unlikely at this point. I won’t be surprised to see this end with Ukraine re-taking Crimea and all the other land that Russia currently holds. Prior to this war, Ukraine didn’t really want to launch an attack on Crimea, out of fear of provoking exactly what they’ve had this year: a full-scale war with Russia. But now, that die is cast.
If the current Russian retreat keeps gaining momentum, I see no reason why the Ukrainians would be content to stop at the border with Crimea. This might be their one chance to reacquire that land, so they’ll take it if the opportunity presents itself.
I did a LOL on that one. 
Concerning the Ukrainians retaking Crimea, the very same serious obstacle - the wide and fast Dnieper River that’s causing the Russians such significant resupply headaches near Kherson - will be an equal if not greater impediment to any Ukrainian crossing. If Russia can’t bridge it to get their supplies across, how will Ukraine get heavy weapons and supplies to the other side to attack Crimea?
The Isthmus of Perekop, that connects the Crimean Pensinsula to mainland Ukraine, is 5 1/2 miles or 9 km wide (according to Google Maps measuring tool).
Even before they get to the isthmus they’d have to cross the Dnieper.
They’d have to liberate Melitopol first and the supply line would be longer, but there is a bridge across the Dnieper in Zaporizhzhia.
The Donbas and cities such as Mariupol and Berdyansk (and Kharkiv, for that matter) are east of the Dnieper/Dnipro, same as Crimea. The wetlands/lagoons separating Crimea from the rest of Ukraine are a more formidable obstacle, with the Isthmus of Perekop being the only connection, and it’s three to four miles wide.