Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

The bluff is he is likely to declare the currently occupied areas as Russia and therefore any attack on them as an attack on Russia itself and therefore inviting nuclear retaliation.
As the Economist pointed out, he is not Biden, nuclear release is one of the few formal and actual limits on his power. He needs the defense minister and Chief of Staff’s agreement to do so.

ETA: A cached version.
Do Russia’s military setbacks increase the risk of nuclear conflict? | The Economist (googleusercontent.com)

And how many of those does he need to send to Gulag before he finds two who’ll say yes?

If he sends an order and that’s not confirmed, will be his last day in power. He is aware of that.

There’s no way that this is accurate. Not sure if Ukraine’s #s are accurate either, but Putin lies about everything.

hence te HIMARs - which allow for a good level of “selectivity” (as they have shown already en Khersov attacks) - but the point is you need to hit them with the right tools NOW and HARD … and normalize the attacks before the claim its russia territory

iow start now and don’t stop shelling/shooting for a couple of weeks there…

.

And as the noose gets tighter, I am more worried about some “I won’t go out silent and alone - I’d rather have plenty of company” scenario…

Hospitals? Schools? Civilians fleeing to safety? They’ve attacked all of these.

Sure, but at least we (the West, I mean) have the reassurance of knowing that, whatever may come, we only ever had one good option, and that was to do what we are now doing. There’s been no missed opportunity for de-escalation, and there’s no compromise or offramp we can offer Putin that will bring lasting peace.

No, it’s not a nuclear war until someone launches a nuclear weapon.

Sure, but that still doesn’t mean that retaliation in kind will be used in this case. Could be that other nuclear powers simply stay put, hoping that no one will repeat Russia’s precedent of using nuclear weapons offensively, in much the same way that they’ve all spent the last 77 years hoping (correctly, as it turned out) that no one would repeat the US’s precedent of using nuclear weapons defensively.

There’s one other option that I see, assuming we’re talking Russia having used only one or two tactical nukes. That would be if China and India, along with the West, somehow or another (likely including a coup) force a breakup and de-nuclearization of Russia. I know it’s a long shot, but at that point what would China and India have to lose?

ETA: I mean what would they have to lose by joining the West in using any means possible short of nuclear retaliation to force Russia to break up and disarm. Obviously they, along with the rest of the world, will lose everything in a nuclear war.

As per your hypothetical;

If Russia gets away with doing it once, they will do it again and again.

Their legitimacy as nations. They really really don’t want a precedent like that which can then be used on them down the line.

Right, but they also don’t want the precedent of nuclear weapons being used with impunity. They’re not stupid.

To me this looks like he’s now playing entirely for the home audience, though there’s also a warning for Ukraine and other neighboring countries to not push their luck and reverse recent Russian land grabs. The mobilized troops won’t be used to retake any parts of Ukraine, put will be posted to “guard the border against imminent western incursion” and keep people in the state of fear he needs to stay in power.

That’s all a WAG of course.

:joy:
Somebody needs to read Indian doctrine.

Is your understanding of Indian doctrine better than your understanding of Russian military capabilities?

Much better than yours at least.

Did you miss that I said this would be very difficult for Russia since February?

The scenario posits that Russia has done so.

Allowing them to do so without retaliation would amount to putting Putin in charge of the planet.

Whether the retaliation would have to be nuclear I suppose is another question; but it would have to be massive.

If Russia launches a nuke, even a small one, NATO should respond with overwhelming conventional force - sink every Russian warship in the Black Sea, obliterate every Russian air defense and airfield site in Ukraine (including Crimea), and possibly more. Hopefully (and probably) there are already NATO assets in position to do this continuously within 24 hrs or so.

Sorry, I overlooked the “in the scenario” bit of your sentence. I saw “already” and thought you were talking about the current, actual situation. In my scenario I should have clarified even further that I was talking about more direct involvement.

Yes, but as long as they stick to their own backyard, other powers might decide it’s safer to stick, on the whole, to vocal protestations. Both the leadership and the general population of Germany, the USA, etc. are largely in support of military aid to Ukraine, but whether they’re prepared to become nuclear targets (an inevitably victims) on its behalf is another matter entirely.