Interesting tank loss numbers.
a bit of levity
Erdogan is a very confusing and interesting sort of, kind of, pal of Putin.
Erdogan seems to be able to take every opportunity of world events to play all sides off each other for his own benefit.
No veto in the security council? Although Biden just mentioned that, how serious was he? Does the U.S. really want such a thing? Or just talking a bit of convenient anti Russia stuff. Then Erdogan comes in and says, yes, do that. I don’t think any of them really want that.
I personally want the UN to have more sort of world population based veto function. Simplistic statement, but at some point figured out to a functional, helpful system.
https://www.rt.com/news/563424-turkey-un-security-council-veto/
Thanks Russia. Right back at ya!
There was a graphic in which Ukraine thanked Russia for the loan of hundreds/thousands of rockets and artillery shells and promised to return them promptly.
It’s the Ukrainian MoD twitter account again. Whoever runs it has very little sense of decorum. 
Apparently, Novaya Gazeta has reported that the mobilisation announcement allows for the possibility of up to 1million to be drafted
A debate is shaping up within the EU over whether EU member states are right to be tightening border restrictions against Russian citizens fleeing the draft.
The main argument for such restrictions is that keeping disgruntled Russians in Russia increases the pressure on the regime to end the war and/or depose Putin. (There is also concern that some arriving Russians could turn out to be spies or saboteurs working for the regime.)
The counter-argument is that at least some of the Russians who are leaving are individuals fleeing political persecution and that there should be a way out for them, as there always has been for dissidents before.
(The counter-counter-argument is that many of those who chose this moment to flee are not necessarily dissidents or antiwar but just looking to save their own skin.)
Though I’m firmly pro-sanctions, I find this issue much more of a gray area. It really comes down to whether we on the outside have a chance of influencing the fate of Putin’s regime (which is something we can only guess at). It also puts in sharper relief the question of how we draw the line morally between treating Russians collectively and treating them as individuals.
I don’t. I think the idea that forcing people to remain within the grasp of an oppressive regime in the hope that they might then overpower the regime is misguided and wishful thinking. Similar justifications were used for the bombing of cities in WWII. What I suspect is more likely is that those whose first impulse is to file, but who are denied, will go right back to living their lives as best they can, even to the point of being conscripted, and that by sending them back to Russia the world is effectively helping Putin maintain a labor force and a body of manpower on which to draw for armed service.
Principled stands in the face of totalitarianism are hard. Fleeing is doubtless hard on some level, but perhaps easier for those with means. Going back to work and just living one’s life, even allowing oneself to be drafted? Why, that’s the easiest thing of all. We should want to avoid putting more Russians into that situation, I think.
ETA: I wonder what people would think of Canada today if it’s government, during the US war in Vietnam, had aggressively denied entry to or returned Vietnam War resisters, on the premise that such resister should go back home and protest rather than flee conscription?
Latest MOD
Russia is a truly drafty place
On the 4th hand, if those Russians are allowed to leave, they will get a chance to see what life is like beyond Russian borders. And whenever they do return to Russia, they may carry ideas and influences that could help Russia.
My take: don’t let any significant # of russians in … (exceptions apply - e.g. non-aligned journalists, confirmed dissidents)
just look at the russian playbook (and yes, i do exaggerate for dramatic effect)
- lot’s of russian young males and many hypermasculinisized
- they probably aggregate in places, most likely in eastern europe (due to language similarities) - possibly in poland/chec countries/bulgaria
- lots of drinking
- lots of trouble with westeners (guest country populace)
- then they call for russian help b/c they are not allow to “express themselves” as they wish
- Lavrov will decry the abuse of russians in the west in UN speeches
- Putin will pre-record speeches warning of crossing red lines abusing russian youth
- russia is forced to prepare an invasion to “protect” their populace in poland/bulgaria
- rinse-lather-repeat
… and once you have some 10.000s of russian males in your country - there is no way to get rid of them … where would you send them???
so my take: let the russians stay in russia and let russia figure out a solution for russian problems caused by russia - EU has nothing to win in this dog-fight.
That were the hopes and expectations and that did NOT work out so well after perestroyka in the 90ies/2000 in russia…
back to the autocratic regime they were in no time, since the whole “democracy” aspect is for the weaklings and gays in the west … just look at the daily evening-freak-shows on the state Russia1 TV channel.
Or let them flee to China and North Korea. The language would be different, but at least the people fleeing would be familiar with the form of government.
That’s not contradictory. When the situation changes and you now oppose the regime, you are a potential refugee. As long as you are sincere in your allegation that the regime will persecute you for your political beliefs, you may have a claim to be a refugee. “Saving your own skin” is different than, say, economic refugees.
So the EU countries should give notice that they are no longer parties to the Refugee Convention?