How about stationing UN peacekeepers along the newly reclaimed Kharkiv/Russia border?
It’s one the few traditional borders along Russian territory.
Putin seemed so worried about incursions he threatened Nukes.
Lets ease dear Putins troubled mind. 500 hundred lightly armed UN troops would be enough to secure that section of the border.
It would also help Ukraine and maybe the peacekeepers presence would prevent escalation along that border next year.
The UN troops wouldn’t be expected to fight a war. They’re border guards with rifles. No threat to the Russians. If attacked they certainly would withdraw and the UN would increase sanctions.
Ukraine should invite the peacekeepers and station with their own border guards inside Ukraine.
It won’t end the war. There will be a lot of fighting along the annexed territories.
Well, the problem is that in this very particular, very weird case the Russian’s bad supply issues has made an very strange virtue of what should be (and still realistically is) a weakness. Russia doesn’t seem to be using nearly as many cruise missiles as early in the war and there not using many aircraft period. Re: the cruise missiles perhaps because a.) they had insufficient stock for a high-intensity conflict to begin with, b.) they used a lot of what they had early, c.) they have difficulty making more in numbers due to the chip embargo, and maybe d.) they might be husbanding dwindling stocks against future need.
Instead what they have been seem to have been increasingly using to attack urban targets are Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, old Kh-22 anti-ship missiles and apparently some S-300/S-400 SAMs (which weirdly were designed from the start to perform double-duty as tactical SSMs in a pinch). These are pretty blunt instruments as they aren’t terribly accurate for the use they’re being put to. But though less effective than precision cruise missiles, Iskanders and Kh-22s may ironically be effectively immune to NASAMS because they are designed to go high and come screaming straight down on targets at hypersonic speeds.
In a weird parallel it is like the Achilles heel vulnerability of Russian armor to top-down strikes from more modern anti-tank missiles. NASAMS were apparently not designed to operate at those steep angles and simply can’t do it. So NASAMS are going to be a welcome addition to point defense in the field, but as anti-terror city defense they are currently weirdly hamstrung by Russia’s own supply constraints.
Yeah, but since he’s running fake elections on whether the occupied lands should become parts of Russia, he considers incursions into those territories incursions into Russia.
I don’t know about the Russian army in general, but let’s talk about the 20k or so Russian troops stationed on the wrong side of the Dnieper River near Kherson. They are currently equipped with summer uniforms. Their supplies have been reduced roughly 70% since Ukr knocked out all the bridges to the region with their HIMARS. It’s all their logistics can do to get food and ammo across the river. Freezing temperatures usually arrive in the region about 2-3 weeks from now. Will they be able to spend several days dedicating their logistics train towards ferrying back and forth 20 thousand winter uniforms, in lieu of food and ammo?
Russian commanders had already indicated it would be prudent to withdraw to the other side of the river before winter hits and abandon Kherson. Putin is overruling his generals.
The kharkiv Oblast border with Russia presents a unique challenge. It is traditional Russian territory. It would be very bad if they shell Ukraine from that side.
HIMARS striking 30 miles or more into Russia would be problematic.
That’s why I recommend lightly armed UN peacekeepers to patrol the Ukraine side of Kharkiv/Russia border. UN peace keeping presence might be some deterrence.
The annexed territories will be different. I doubt it will make any difference in Ukrainian strategy. There’s going to be heavy fighting.
What other choice is there? Throw up their hands and see another big chunk of their country disappear?
A sham 4 day election at gunpoint can’t be accepted. Everyone knows even more of Ukraine will be stolen next Spring.
Russia has continued to shell population centres all along the northern boundary (Chernihiv-Sumy axis) which they withdrew from months ago. They also continue artillery duels across the border in the Kharkiv region. This is an active warzone and completely unsuited to UN forces.
It may be beyond the Ukrainians’ control. The same rasputitsa mud that doomed the Russians advances in their early spring attack is due to return in early fall - like any time now. Ukr. attacks will unfortunately be limited to areas near improved roadways during that interval. When the ground freezes they can get off the roads again but by that time Russian bodies may start arriving in significant numbers.
That’s one of the most troubling aspects to this war. Even when Ukraine pushes Russian troops out of cities, the reclaimed territory is still not safe. The shelling and rockets actually intensify.
It so different from a traditional war where you push forward and the rear area is pretty safe. Like D-Day. Within weeks exhausted troops were rotating to the rear for R&R. Going into town, eating at French restaurants. Finding amore. Then went back to the front.
Ukraine has to get more offensive capability. It’s wrong for the West to only make them strong enough to make small gains. People are dying and their land was just annexed by the bastard Russians.
Well obviously the Russian border is not a “rear area” even if there isn’t currently major fighting going on in the locale. But Ukraine does have proper rear areas like Lviv that are generally safe although occasionally subject to cruise missile attacks.
Russian Su-34 losses yesterday confirmed by Russian Telegram account:
Technically I guess this Twitter user could be faking the Telegram screenshot, but it was retweeted by Oryx so if it was fake someone would have called it out in the comments. The machine translation is a bit clunky, probably doesn’t deal well with some military jargon:
A beautiful Sunday morning, gentlemen!
Yesterday afternoon, the Ukrainians shot down a couple of our best, the rest as usual they did. We took one crew right away, but the second crew was unlucky, the PSO helicopter came under heavy enemy fire, the GOP entered the battle, but they could not take ours.
The crew had to take a little walk. They were also taken away. Everyone is alive. It’s all good.
Ukrainians write that they have started using quadrics to detect suitable low-altitude aircraft. After that, the approach course and the location of the aircraft are transferred to the calculations of MANPADS and memory.
Taking into account the fact that the Ukrainians track without problems all the takeoffs of our aviation, and it is easy to distinguish the plane went to work, or according to the training flight plan, it is not difficult for them to estimate the flight time plus or minus a couple of minutes.
This should be taken into account.
During the day, it is necessary to fly lower, use duty in zones, different routes and combat courses, and
do the main work in the dark. And already buy yourself normal shoes on the membrane, and wear regular shit-bots only for drill reviews.
I think his premise is to call Putin’s bluff on the whole action being about preventing aggression against Russia from the Ukrainian side. If that’s the rationale, then Putin should be happy to have UN peacekeepers guarding Russian security. And his refusal to go along would be further confession of his true intentions.
I think it’s a pretty amusing rib-nudge to think about, but not actually workable in reality, because nobody has any illusions about Putin’s real plan, and Russia would continue their baldfaced lies regardless.
All the issues with Russian military equipment do make me wonder if they actually still have any functional nukes left. However, that’s not a question I really want to find out the answer to. All they need is one.
The options for surviving this war without it escalating into other countries are quickly dewindling.
I’m surprised Putin has painted his country into this corner. Annexing land he doesn’t fully control puts him on a win or die trying mentality.
Did you see Russia’s newest law? They’re requiring troops to fight and not voluntarily surrender. That only leads to more senseless deaths.
Ukraine has troops encircled in Kherson and Lyman. There have been reports of negotiations to pull back. Live to fight another day. It’s been rejected by the Kremlin.
It depends on what Putin does next. A Nuke would force a strong military response from NATO.
Poland is the most at risk because the West’s Ukrainian supplies probably are staged there. An attack on a NATO member would force a
military response.
Let’s see what happens next Spring when the war cranks back up.
