Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

They’re no threat to Russia unless Russia attacks. In that case, there would be a violent UN response. But they’re no threat to Russia unless Russia refuses to respect their authority.

Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin are home in Britain and appeared on a morning tv show. Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman was involved in helping to free the 5 British nationals.

I remember it seemed unlikely any of the British men would survive after Mariupol was captured.

That was my point. The Kharkiv Oblast border with Russia has been restored. This might be the time for the UN to use its authority to deescalate tensions.

It would be a small first step.

I assume the UN would conduct discreet back channel negotiations with the Russians. Find out if they’d accept peacekeepers in that area. The UN wouldn’t bring their peacekeepers into a situation where they’d be immediately massacred.

Stabilizing that one area would free Russian troops and equipment to defend Donbass. That seems to be Putin’s priority.

It’s my understanding heavy military equipment doesn’t move well in Russian winter. Its been reported the soldiers don’t have winter gear.

The rockets and artillery attacks will continue. Otherwise I don’t expect any big counter-offenses by either side.

There will be a lot of defensive construction. Building bunkers and fighting positions. Training men will be a priority for both countries.

Yes, I was replying to Broomstick.

I’m not sure how a UN deployment would work, given that Russia has veto power. I’m sure it would take, as you say, back channel communications. Were Russia to agree to UN peacekeepers, it could de-escalate the situation and Russia would have an ‘out’ (at least in that region) and could save some face by ‘showing the world’ that they are abiding by the UN resolution(s).

Because the Russians are world-renowned for keeping their word.

Maybe Finland could send the Ukrainians trainers for winter warfare. They did a damn good job against Russia during the Winter War.

Maybe if the peacekeepers were from countries that have some support Russia but are also unlikely to attack Ukraine? They could send peacekeepers from countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, or Mexico.

Edward Snowden receives some bad news.

Even the chief Russian propagandists admit that the mobilization has been a shitshow:

(The Siberia reference is to a recruitment officer who was shot by somebody angry at mobilization.)

What authority? There will be no peacekeeper deployment after Russia exercises its veto power without comment or explanation.

I’ve read comments that Ukraine’s counter-offensive will be studied for decades as a brilliantly planned and executed military campaign. But how instructive is it taking into account that the Russians were spectacularly mismanaged and demoralized? How often does one face a totally incompetent enemy?

Hate to break it to you, but all those Finnish soldiers who fought in the Winter War are probably dead.

Yes, but they trained the next generations of soldiers, didn’t they? As I recall, Finland just had an exercise with NATO troops and were very, very impressive.

On the other hand, Steven Segal is over 70, so he just might evade the draft.

They’re already doing that.

Video Shows Old Russian Tanks Taken Out of Storage to Be Used in Ukraine (newsweek.com)

Russia Is Fielding 50-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine | T-62 Tank (popularmechanics.com)

T-62 Tank: Russia’s Soviet-Era Fallback in Ukraine | HistoryNet

Russia’s Ancient T-62 Tanks Are On The Move In Ukraine (forbes.com)

Pretty often, the trick is not being totally incompetent yourself and it’s surprisingly difficult.

2 Americans released in the prisoner swap are home. :clap:

Yeah, winters didn’t stop happening with the end of WW II, and everything learned during the Winter War was put into military doctrine and practice.

Training wasn’t a priority for Russia before they started the war. Why should we expect them to make it a priority now?