Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

[TokyoBayer]

The Institute for Study of War is reporting that the Russian forces are withdrawing more forces from Kherson.

Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have completely abandoned their positions in Charivne and Chkalove (both approximately 33km northwest of Nova Kakhovka), and Russian officers and medics have reportedly evacuated from Beryslav.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are also removing patients from the Kakhovka Hospital on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, likely to free up hospital beds for Russian military casualties that may result from the withdrawal across the river.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that some Russian elements are preparing Kherson City for urban combat, while other servicemembers continue to flee the city via the ferry operating in the vicinity of the Antonivsky Bridge.[3] The UK Ministry of Defense reported on October 22 that Russian forces completed construction of a barge bridge alongside the damaged bridge and forecasted that the barge bridge would become a critical crossing point for Russian forces as Ukrainian forces advance toward Kherson City.[4] A large part of the Kherson City population has also reportedly left the city.

It may happen sooner than later, meaning within a few weeks or a month rather than next spring, which many people thought.

[Smapti]

Jay in Kyiv

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Here are some maps with greater granularity.

Ethnic Ukrainians in Ukraine by raions (2001 census)

Largest ethnicity in Ukraine’s cities and raions, according to 2001 census:

Native Russian-speakers according to 2001 census:

Demographics of Ukraine

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Fascist on Russian state TV jokes about Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian grannies, calls for drowning Ukrainian children, and advocates burning Ukrainians in their houses.

Julia Davis

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Russian plane doing Russian plane things.

Visegrád 24

ТРУХА⚡️English

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Another Russian plane doing Russian plane things.

BlueSauron👁️

One moment you’re flying in your plane, then ten seconds later you’re sitting in a field in Ukraine.

[FlikTheBlue]

@Walken_After_Midnight

Russian plane doing Russian plane things.

From that first tweet, the plane that crashed took off from the factory. I thought Russia was no longer producing such advanced weapons. Is it possible that there’s a translation issue with that tweet?

[silenus]

Maybe it was in for its factory warranty work. You know, rotate the air in the tires, change the blinker fluid, the stuff you have to check every 5 missions or 300 miles. But the mechanic left a wrench in the nose and when the pilot switched on the radar, it blew every circuit and the plane became a ballistic object.

[Al128]

@TokyoBayer

The UK Ministry of Defense reported on October 22 that Russian forces completed construction of a barge bridge alongside the damaged bridge and forecasted that the barge bridge would become a critical crossing point for Russian forces as Ukrainian forces advance toward Kherson City

whats your - collective - take on that?

Ukr not shelling it (for the time being) b/c it is a nice bottleneck that will result in RU troop and weaponry concentration … and they will take it out when the time is “right”?

or any other hypothesis?

@FlikTheBlue

From that first tweet, the plane that crashed took off from the factory. I thought Russia was no longer producing such advanced weapons.

one could argue the case that they are NOT producing working aircrafts … ;o)

[Morgyn]

Dang. It went in like a lawn dart.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

@Al128

whats your - collective - take on that?

Ukr not shelling it (for the time being) b/c it is a nice bottleneck that will result in RU troop and weaponry concentration … and they will take it out when the time is “right”?

or any other hypothesis?

I think it’s already been targeted.

Ukrainian forces struck at a key crossing on the Dnipro River late Thursday night local time and may have tried to hit it again on Friday. Video evidence of the scene appears to show that Ukraine targeted, at least in part, the makeshift pontoon bridge Russia had just completed and is seen as essential for both resupply and potential retreat of Russian forces in Kherson. The pontoon bridge, made of a series of barges, sits right beside the Antonovsky bridge that has been unusable for months due to repeated precision rocket attacks.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ukraine-situation-report-russia-s-kherson-pontoon-bridge-attacked/ar-AA13f9YE?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=9bd24688daa5453f8522fffa6911b247

[Johnny_L.A]

@silenus

Maybe it was in for its factory warranty work. You know, rotate the air in the tires, change the blinker fluid, the stuff you have to check every 5 missions or 300 miles. But the mechanic left a wrench in the nose and when the pilot switched on the radar, it blew every circuit and the plane became a ballistic object.

More seriously, aircraft have maintenance schedules. I’ve heard it said that the first 10 hours after an engine overhaul are the most dangerous, since there’s a minuscule chance the mechanic did something incorrectly.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Johnny_L.A

since there’s a minuscule chance the mechanic did something incorrectly.

Or in Russia, a larger chance that the manager of the facility sold some of the engine parts to a friend and replaced them with marbles.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

I’m not sure if this video of a Russian jet crashing after takeoff last month was previously posted:

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker

(Video quality is better at source)

[Magiver]

@scabpicker

Heck, the Ukrainians should add returning the ring to their demands. Just so Putin can feel like he “won” when they relent on that demand.

I’m hoping it doesn’t come to that and the ring is returned with a finger attached.

[DesertDog]

@Walken_After_Midnight

Fascist on Russian state TV jokes about Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian grannies, calls for drowning Ukrainian children, and advocates burning Ukrainians in their houses.

Draft him send send him to Ukraine so he can experience war first hand.

@Walken_After_Midnight

One moment you’re flying in your plane, then ten seconds later you’re sitting in a field in Ukraine.

and blessing what ever gods who owed you a favor. I’m wondering what the field is planted with. It looks a little like alfalfa but the leaves are all wrong. Another variety, perhaps.

[Tamerlane]

@FlikTheBlue

I thought Russia was no longer producing such advanced weapons.

Due to the embargo you mean?

In this particular case we probably are talking about maintenance as per above comments. However it is possible this was a Su-30SM2 that had already been in production pre-embargo. Production time is slowww for those advanced jets in Russia.

[JohnT]

Looks like the flight test phase is surprisingly short, tho.

[eschereal]

@Walken_After_Midnight

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1584142606971203584

Irkutsk? Ir-fucking-kutsk? That is on Lake Baikal, near Mongolia, some three thousand miles away from Ukraine.

[silenus]

Anybody who has ever played Risk knows where Irkutsk is. Nice to see that the Russian Air Farce is just as competent other places as they are falling out of the sky over Ukraine.