Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Well, from your provided links looks like McDonald’s loses nearly 10% of its revenue, Carnival about 3.5%, Coca-Cola a big chunk…

If the assets are seized they lose money. That’s one of the risks of investing in a foreign country.

I still think there is merit in that. I think interconnecting everyone economically via trade has prevented war in the past, but no matter how good a tool it is, it is not perfect. It can’t prevent war in all possible scenarios.

I am puzzled to how that is supposed to work. The USSR and Israel and then Russia and Israel have never been friends and often at odds.

Then either the drugs wore off or he took his dose on time today.

Honestly, all along he’s been sounding like a wife-beater claiming it’s the wife’s fault he “had” to break her jaw.

And a third problem is that being seen on social media, the TV, or really in any public way NOT holding to the government line can get you a long, long prison sentence far, far away. WTF are these people filming Russians thinking? Don’t they realize the risk they pose to those people?

Everything to Putin is equivalent to war because war is what Putin wants.

A lot of the oligarchs with strong connections to Putin’s government are Jewish, with a number of them being Israeli citizens. That may factor into it.

I find that surprising given the very long history of antisemitism in Russia.

Then again, I have found many things surprising this week, what’s one more?

Most of them seem to have worked their way up the ranks of industry, specifically mechanical engineering and resource extraction. I imagine this is as close to a meritocracy as existed in post-Soviet Russia.

Their goals have often aligned in Syria of late.

When access to multiple normal information channels is blocked, doesn’t that in itself tell people something?

– as others have said: some of the people who say they back Putin no matter what, and/or who otherwise won’t voice objections to the interviewer, may also be afraid to speak otherwise. Covid masks don’t hide enough of your face to really prevent identification.

Of course, people who are afraid to speak otherwise are very often also too afraid to help do anything about the problem.

The former claim is supported by legitimately vetted evidence. The latter really isn’t. That sort of thing is happening but not in the vast amounts you’re being told by people on Twitter and such.

Or Strela-2, aka the SA-7 Grail. Grails and Gremlins are useful against slower moving aircraft; not so much jets. For those you need proper SAMs, like the S-300.

I don’t think Russia uses either anymore, they’re on later models.

It’s not so much an alignment as it is an arrangement. For the last few years, Israel has been been trying to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from entrenching in Syria, which often involves airstrikes on (Assad-controlled) Syrian forces that get in its way. Despite the fact that the Syrians are nominally Russian allies, Russian forces in Syria, which include S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, have given Israel a certain freedom of operation, even coordinating with it so that they won’t accidentally shoot down any Israeli planes. It’s been working out pretty well, so far, but Israel is acutely aware of the fact that if Russia ever decided to turn those AA batteries on, they could pose a significant threat not only to the Israeli air force, but also to any civilian aircraft taking off or landing at any airport in the country.

As many Eastern European countries can tell you, having the Russian bear on your border makes you tread lightly.

Hot off the press (not sure if confirmed, so apply a grain of salt):

One person ( Denis Kireev) who participated for the Ukr. in the first round of “peace talks” in Belarusia got killed …

.

really really interesting part:
killed by Ukraine - obviously he was a spy for Putin and Ukr. Security Agency recorded some phone calls:

google translate:
His name is listed among other Ukrainians who died “during the performance of special assignments” and defending Ukraine.
At the same time, it was previously reported that Kireev was suspected of treason, and he was killed by members of the Security Service of Ukraine during his arrest.

That’s interesting if true because it suggests there is a leak in the Russian camp - otherwise how would the Ukrainians know? We have already heard claims that assassination plots against Zelenskyy have been foiled because of anti-war elements within the FSB (Russian intelligence) tipping off the Ukrainians.

I suspect there is a LOT of stuff going on that we don’t know about, likely won’t know about for decades, and may never know about.

As is the case with every war. It was thirty years after WWII when some of Ultra’s secrets about Enigma were declassified and suddenly a lot of things made sense.

For example the two “happy times” the U-boats suddenly had for a while was because of changes to the machines making them undecypherable for a few months.

Putin’s appearance with flight attendants looked a bit questionable and if you look carefully there are a number of reasons why it looked a bit like he wasn’t actually there in the room. For sure if it was faked they did a decent job but you can see his hand appear to move through the microphone slightly.

Though this article says they are not sure and might just be a consequence of the video being compressed:

Anyway, shortly after Putin’s video President Zalenskyy looked like he deliberately, and unusually, moved the microphone at the end of his address as if to troll Putin.

Apologies for the play button symbol but I’m not fast enough to screenshot a moving video - anyway, you get the idea.

Green screen wouldn’t do that. Green screen is a flat matte. It doesn’t create 3D modeling out of thin air.

Press conference with Badass-looking captured Russian soldiers pleading with other Russians to realize what’s going on. I haven’t seen anything that makes me think it might be fake but also it might be fake. Pretty powerful if it’s not fake.

Skip to 8 mins if you want to see the main gist of their pleas from the biggest guy in the middle.

I imagine a lot of people in Ukraine have experience figuring out which pieces of obsolete Soviet era equipment still works.

There was a time people in Europe and North America understood that winning a war requires sacrifice.

And sacrifices hurt.

I’m looking at gas prices right now, and actively making plans to use my bike as much as possible this coming year. We’ll all have to be prepared to make choices like that.

As hard as it may feel to us, it’s peanuts to what the Ukrainians are feeling right now, and will continue to feel for probably years to come.

If the video is to be believed, the police officer turned soldier rephrased what I said earlier. “We can invade the territory but we cannot invade the people.”

He knows they destroy property but they cannot maintain control of the people.

If he’s an actor he’s a damn good one.