Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

I have read reports of former AF pilots suggesting russian origin planes (of all sorts) within NATO have been converted to “western controls” …

I assume that is the equivalent of a RHD car vs. a LHD car (multiplied by a factor of 100 for complexity, I assume)

a deterrent? for sure … insurmountable? IDK

also: I’d be surprised if those fulcrums weren’t in high demand for NATO forces to practice “against”

I am following these “distroyed today” graphs closesly, and notice that the “Tanker-truck IOW mobile-gas-stations” has stayed on 60 for the past 3 or 4 days.

I’d read that rather as “there are no gas-trucks circulating” (as opposed to: “there are gas-trucks circulating, but we cannot destroy them” )

that seems to be the logical escalation of the “russian soldier vs. ukr. door” video … ;o)

this is one possible reason … another could be: there are simply more russian airplanes/copters flying now then in the beginning.

On a sidenote, (but related) … there have been a number of high-rank russian “brass” being killed in the past 2-3 days … there was some consensus that this has its roots in a change of minds of the russian echelons, forcing their officials to show more leadership upfront. This suggests they get killed more now, as they actually start engaging in theaters.

Very interesting report coming out on various media.

In Belarus, the Chief of the General Staff and deputy minister of defence, General Viktor Gulevich has resigned.

He says in his letter of resignation that it hasn’t been possible to find a single battalion group that’s willing to take part in hostilities against Ukraine. He also says that replacing the commanders wouldn’t help, suggesting that the refusal comes from the soldiers themselves, not the officers.

If this true, then it looks like Russian propaganda hasn’t been effective in Belarus, and if Russia was relying on Belarus to invade western Ukraine, that’s not going to happen.

This is said to be the English translation of his letter of resignation:

Dear Viktor Gennadievich,

In pursuance of your order regarding the formation of shock battalion groups, I have to report the following: due to the massive refusal to take part in the hostilities of the personnel of the military units that were supposed to be involved in staffing the above battalion groups, the Armed Forces of Belarus are not able to staff a single battalion group.

Conducting explanatory work with the commanders of military units did not produce results. I have the courage to assume that the replacement of the commanders of these military units, who were unable to organize the formation of groups on the ground, will not give us the result we need.

In view of the above, I ask for your decision regarding the acceptance of my resignation.

Chief of the General Staff
First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus
Major General

Gulevich V.V.

I’ve heard it theorised that the Russians are short of guided missiles so are having to use more of their aircraft.

Sputnik news is denying it. I guess that settles it. :wink:

The problem is that things like this could be fake or real.

My first thought was that it’s fake. . .

probably one of the few positive externalities from this war: … even more push into renewable energies (both stationary and mobile)

Well shit. So much for NATO taking any stand.

I understand NATO pilots can’t fly the planes. It’s not unusual to fly over countries. The US did it in the Gulf wars. We couldn’t have fought the war without using air space over Turkey and other countries.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-01/poland-nato-russia-invasion-ukraine-5185737.html

Mine as well. Reads as blatantly fake to me. I’ll wait until I see it in multiple major news sources.

NATO is walking a fine line here; how much aid can NATO nations provide, without triggering a direct conflict with Russia? Sending NATO warplanes into the theatre would be likely to trigger a direct war, I would think, which would make the Balts very nervous.

That’s several days old; the latest I’m seeing on Twitter is that the US is talking to Poland about supplying the jets. We’ll see.

I think a fleet of drones would be far more effective. HQ the pilots in the remotest and most secure part of Ukraine. Drones are easily replaceable. They can be quietly shipped in by cargo planes or trucks. They’re well suited to attack troop transport or supply trucks.

Fighters require highly trained pilots. They get killed and are hard to replace. Friendly countries have to supply planes that Ukraine pilots are trained to fly.

That’s what we’ve heard every time an externality has driven up energy prices in my lifetime. (And to be fair, there’s been a lot of progress in renewable energy.) But don’t expect U.S. demand for gas guzzling SUVs to drop off any time soon – there’s always the expectation that fuel prices will drop again, and so far it’s always come true.

I don’t think drones are very effective at air-to-air combat, which is why Zelensky says they need jets (they are already getting drones, which are more useful for reconnaissance and ground attack, but I’m sure more drones would be helpful). And Poland and other nearby countries have the kind of Russian-made jets that Ukrainian pilots are familiar with. Hopefully this will happen soon.

Yeah, on the one hand, POWs are being put on TV. On the other hand, we have shelling of civilians attempting to evacuate along agreed-upon humanitarian corridors, not to mention the unprovoked invasion itself. I’m reasonably confident that my conclusion from this will not be “both sides do it.”

IIRC, in the Bible, David was charged with a war crime for using a sling against Goliath, too.

[ETA: And, if memory serves, Goliath was armed with a Javelin]

/s

Use of slings was banned in the Lagash Conventions of BCE 1274. But do you think that’s mentioned in I Samuel?

The photo has been annotated in this US newspaper: