just another small numeric tidbit …
a german home-improvement-company is ceasing operations in russia. They have a modest amount of outlets (27) … but let go nearly 5,000 people …
So its a save bet that in the past week there were probably anywhere from 200.000 - 500.000 russians made redundant… I’d assume most of them in the big metropolii
And they are probably not happy about that, Mr. Putin - and most likely not Pro-War … that might up the temperature of the demonstrations in the big cities
It’s interesting the Russians are dressed formally and the Ukrainians aren’t. I wonder if that’s a deliberate decision?
Its been my personal experience that meetings with “the suits” left me feeling at a disadvantage. I find myself dressing formally for meetings with management.
At least on Windows, you don’t even have to save to a file.
Might be.
One possible implication is ‘you guys are only prepared to sit in a nice clean safe office. We’re prepared to do whatever’s necessary.’
Underdressing to a meeting is a power play.
I’m reminded of how, at Appottomattox, Lee was the one dressed impeccably, while Grant was haggard-looking in a muddy uniform, to the point where people commented that it looked like Grant was surrendering to Lee.
Well, it’s a stupid one in my opinion, if that’s indeed their intention here. The meeting should be about one thing and one thing only, and that’s bringing an end to this conflict. It shouldn’t involve any form of sartorial dick-waving.
At this point in the conflict - and I’ve been following it very closely - I don’t feel that Ukraine has a shot in hell of forcing the Russians to back down. The best possible outcome to this is for Russia to get Crimea and the breakaway Eastern regions, and for Ukraine to agree to neutrality. It’s not a good outcome for Ukraine, I know, but I think the killing is going to continue indefinitely if they don’t agree to these terms.
I think (or at least, I hope) that you’re underestimating the economic pressure that Putin is under because of the ever-increasing sanctions and the high rate of military losses in this war. You may also be underestimating the effect of the ongoing (and even accelerating) rate of weapons shipments into Ukraine and the effectiveness and determination with which they’re being deployed. There’s also the not insignificant factor that practically the whole word is united in solidarity against this aggression. Even Putin must realize by now how badly he’s miscalculated.
I don’t think anyone can confidently make a prediction about how and when this is going to end. It may well be that Ukraine may have to give up some territory. But it’s far from certain that this is going to be a slam-dunk win for Russia, and I think it’s very doubtful that Ukraine would be willing to give up their independence, democracy, and alignment with the West. In Putin’s terms, “neutrality” means becoming a Russian puppet state.
Except that this outcome is almost certainly a death sentence for Ukraine. If Russia gets everything it wants this time around, we’ll be doing the same damn thing in 5 or 10 years. Russia has been screwing with Ukraine for more than 10 years now, gradually increasing the pressure. It should be pretty clear they have no intention of stopping until they’re forced to stop, and I think the vast majority of Ukrainians realize this.
If Ukraine does end up surrendering, it will be complete surrender - anything less just delays the inevitable.
Some things are worth dying for. What those things are is for the Ukrainians to decide, not us.
We are but warriors for the working day;
Our gayness and our gilt are all besmirched
With rainy marching in the painful field.
There’s not a piece of feather in our host—
Good argument, I hope, we will not fly—
And time hath worn us into slovenry.
But, by the Mass, our hearts are in the trim,
And my poor soldiers tell me, yet ere night
They’ll be in fresher robes, or they will pluck
The gay new coats o’er the French soldiers’ heads
And turn them out of service.
Henry V: Act 4, scene 1
That may be true - as long as they accept that NATO isn’t ever going to step in, and shouldn’t, no matter how much Zelensky might ask for it (and I’m sure he will continue asking for it as the conflict drags on.) Some things are worth dying for. NOTHING is worth EVERYONE dying for, which is what’s going to happen if the nuclear missiles fly.
Not to mention what China would think if Russia ended up getting everything it wants from a military adventure.
Actually, the best possible outcome is for someone to put a bullet in Putin’s cranium, claim they were misled by an insane leader and remove all of their forces from Ukraine while asking nicely for the sanctions to be lifted. Even then, Russia is going to suffer irreparable economic damage for decades.
I’m not saying that is the likeliest outcome - merely the best.
This was my guess in one on the threads about the stalled convoy. I think the whole plan was “Invade Ukraine - Go!” They didn’t expect any resistance at all. Good thing to see my 12 years in the military allows me to make armchair predictions that are occasionally correct!
Unless something gets messed up even more, there is no way that the Russians don’t try to take Odessa. A large port city would be like gold to them.
Yeah, those are some pretty high losses on that list. I’d be surprised if they were that high. Enemy losses are hard to get real numbers on in the best of circumstances, and this war is nowhere near good circumstances.
The countries staying neutral already know that civilians are being targeted. Who do you think will change their mind and what effect will it have? Who will enforce any decision?
The only thing that will get Russia out of all Ukraine is a decisive military defeat. If they fall back and just hold onto the “Russian” parts of Ukraine they could hold out for years. NATO isn’t going to get involved. The 30+ countries that abstained certainly aren’t going to help, even if they changed their minds. Although we can supply weapons and enforce sanctions, the actual fighting and dying is going to be by Ukrainians.
A neat trick would be to get China to amass 500,000 troops on the Russian border for “maneuvers.” That’ll grab Putin’s attention. Unfortunately, that has about as much chance of happening as the World Court stopping a genocide.
Sorry to repeat myself again, but I didn’t see this thread earlier. I pointed out a few days ago that Russia doesn’t even seem to be trying to use fixed wing aircraft. Modern War 101 says take out air defenses, AA radar and aircraft on the ground first. Air superiority increases your offensive power massively. Russia seemingly skipped right over this step. Makes me wonder if they couldn’t rather than didn’t.
Absolutely, although I think I know what I’d do if I was Ukrainian. Letting a belligerent country hack off pieces of your country every few years isn’t really an option right now. Allowing it to happen just gives Russia a couple years to rest and regroup while building up their forces, only this time they are in a closer position to your central population centers. It’s just asking for a slow death.
In that case, you’d better cede the entirely of Europe to Putin. Give him everything, including Britain. Because otherwise he’ll nuke you.
I saw that Zelenskyy made an emotional appeal for NATO to institute a no-fly zone, which NATO turned down. This is or was a really unrealistic request, as not only would this be courting a wider war between NATO and Russia but I’m not even sure such a zone would be possible, or particularly helpful to Ukraine…and it would put NATO pilots trying to maintain this at a huge disadvantage unless NATO was willing to do strikes into actual Russian territory (which we could, assuming this was part of a UNSC mandate…which, I’m thinking Russia would probably veto, shocking as that seems).
They don’t even have to move any troops. If China announced that as of tomorrow, all exports and imports to and from Russia have stopped; That they will enforce all sanctions… Russia would be out of Ukraine as fast as they could move.
And even if this happens, I think at this point, we should make lifting the sanctions on Russia contingent on an almost complete de-nuclearization. Let them keep a few, like maybe 10, so they have something to threaten people with if someone decides to invade Russia itself, but there’s no way we can ever trust them again with end-of-the-world levels of nuclear arsenals. This whole misadventure was predicated on Putin knowing that NATO wouldn’t want to get involved for fear of a nuclear war wiping out the world.
If they won’t give them up , we have to impoverish them enough that lack of maintenance makes their nukes decay in the silos, and all their nuclear capable subs spring leaks and sink.
Sure, this will probably never actually happen, but it should.
Or if India did the same I think it would have a similar result, though China really is Russia’s lifeline…and to an extent, Russia is almost a client state to China already. But China is going to continue to try and sit on the fence, giving what aid it can to Russia under the table but appearing to be neutral…all the while making sure it doesn’t become a target for the west and 2nd tier sanctions. India is in a similar boat, though they have less of an impact on Russia than China does…but the impact would still be there.