Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)

Per Wikipedia’s article on Ukrainian Ground Forces:

The mechanised and armoured forces are equipped with a combination of Soviet-made (part of them modernized) and modern Ukrainian armored vehicles which includes T-80, T-64, (T-64BV Model 2017, T-64BV), T-64BM “Bulat” and T-72UA1 main battle tanks

If the tanks aren’t wrecked or damaged beyond repair, the Ukrainians can use them.

Propaganda for sure.

And I imagine that the John Deere advertising department is laughing their asses off.

I thought Biden announcing further sanctions (a complete ban on oil imports from Russia) while wearing a tie in Ukrainian colours was a classy touch.

Sure, why not? Just need to paint some yellow on them.

That’s why they are turning the planes over to the US, so we can take whatever heat comes out of this. Poland is just making an exchange with the US, so they are technically not involved in transferring them to Ukraine.

I don’t think any of this stuff is fooling Russia, but it gives some cover I suppose. Although, a lot of countries are full stop sending arms to Ukraine directly, so not sure how much cover that will actually be or if it will amount to anything.

Really, what folks sound be worrying about is how Russia will react to the US stopping all oil purchases with Russia. Currently, it’s only the US, and that won’t really impact them that much (IIRC, we get around 8% of our oil from Russia, and that is probably a pretty small percentage of their production). But things on the sanction side really seem to be escalating, and I don’t know how Russia will react. Their currency has tanked, their economy is tanking, it’s having a huge impact on their people…and no idea how Putin is feeling right now. Cornered? Threatened?

We don’t know that - we just know that the US hasn’t said what they will do.

I’m not sure what you’re referring to by “we don’t know that”, but Blinken was clear that delivering Polish fighter jets was one of this current three priorities, though I agree that stating it was a priority is not the same as a done deal. However I had the impression that the biggest obstacle was whether Poland would go along with it, which apparently they now are:

American officials on Sunday identified three areas on which the United States could soon take action in an attempt to address Russia’s intensifying war in Ukraine: a ban on Russian oil imports, a declaration of war crimes against Russia and help facilitating delivery of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/06/politics/us-officials-action-ukraine/index.html

Update to the Polish airplane swap. The Pentagon says

…we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.

Sounds like some in-fighting going on between the State Department and the Pentagon. Just what we need! :roll_eyes:

CNN has just released a more complete article covering the “not tenable” statement from the Pentagon. It’s disappointing and I have no idea what’s going on, as Zelensky has been desperately asking for fighter jets.

Whether the plane deal goes through or not, the on again off again reporting must be driving Moscow nuts.

Poland shouldn’t disclosed the exact American base that would receive the MiGs. They could have said delivery would be somewhere outside Poland.

I suspect these MiGs will need maintenance before they fly anywhere. Poor maintenance has hampered Russia’s equipment. Poland may not be much better.

Regarding these planes, are these MiG 29s the equivalent of 1980s / 1990s era F/A 18s? In other words useful for shooting down Russian planes and helicopters, but not so much for bombing ground forces? For that wouldn’t they need Su-25s, which from what I understand are the equivalent of the A-10 Warthog?

Similar to the F-16 and F/A-18. Multirole fighters capable of some air to ground combat. Not sure how much you’d want to put them up against modern SAM technology.

Well that’s awfully disappointing. I hope they figure it out and get it done.

On the political front, Poland (perhaps intentionally, to take the direct heat off of them, as others have mentioned above) has put the Biden Administration in a tough position; take possession of and deliver the airplanes and Russia has a casus belli that the US is trying to provoke a war that will devastate Europe (would bet money Putin uses those words if that option plays out). Manage not to work something out and the aircraft stay parked in Poland and the Republicans, who have been pretty much playing “me, too!” catchup on this issue have a ready-made case of “Democrats and Senile Joe won’t support the brave Ukranian soldiers, they are a mess and a muddle, a real President (rhymes with Rump) would have gotten those planes delivered and made a difference.” Lies and obfuscation of course, but it’ll play well in Peoria (and elsewhere).

VP Harris is due in Warsaw Wednesday. Hope the USG can come up with something then or it could get ugly.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

16 of them (at least) were supposedly modernized starting in 2011 to extend airframe lifespan to 2030, at least modestly modernize the avionics (which were originally first generation, early 1980’s vintage) and improve operating compatibility with Poland’s F-16s.

Here’s an article talking about American pilot experience playing with the MiG-29 vs the F-15/16/18. Short story - they’re pretty decent planes for their generation with a couple of design advantages as well as some limitations and flaws.

I saw a video of a mall in Moscow where all of the high end stores like Gucci are empty and closed because of the boycott.

That’s par for the course.

On the other hand, if Russia has a significant amount of modern SAM technology, they don’t seem to be using it much.