Latest Ukrainian claimed figures:
Given the vast land area owned by Russia “domestic travel” in that country can easily exceed the distances involved in a lot of international travel elsewhere. It will enable them to continue using aviation internally which is no small thing in a nation that stretches across 10-11 time zones.
The simple fact is that Putin doesn’t want to stop. He actively wants this war.
“He has a clear plan right now to brutalize Ukraine but to what end?” Blinken said, adding that Ukrainians have shown that they would not accept any “puppet regime” that Putin might try to install to replace the elected Ukrainian government.
“If he tries to enforce such a puppet regime by keeping Russian forces in Ukraine, it will be a long, bloody, drawn-out mess,” Blinken said.
>sigh< Putin wants genocide. He wants to wipe out everyone he can in Ukraine, leaving no eyewitnesses to contradict his version of events so he can declare a great victory to sheep people he rules.
Even if we don’t want to escalate things Putin might.
If Putin figures out he can’t win with conventional weapons will he resort to not-conventional weapons?
Actually it’s better to take out enemy armor any time you can. The further away you can destroy them, the better for you. If Ukraine thinks the risk is too high for them, they are probably correct.
I don’t think it is either. Unless the Russians are doing human wave attacks with no cover artillery across open fields. I think it’s useless to count deaths or casualties at this point. One, it doesn’t help you to prosecute your war. Two, you are simply not going to get accurate numbers from a battlefield. Three, the higher the numbers you do release, the more confidence your troops have and your backers have.
Would it be seen that way? NATO seems to be doing anything they can to stay out of a direct war with Russia. Not that I really blame them. But they already backed down on the MiGs when Vlad said no.
Who is going to be able to buy a ticket when it costs 15 million rubles for a seat as their economy collapses? The only real use I can see is by the government. Or, Putin had no plan and just wanted to be a dick.
I don’t know that he wants genocide, he would probably be perfectly happy with a puppet state that focused money into his coffers. However, if it takes genocide to get there he’s not going to lose any sleep over it.
- If Putin doesn’t ‘win’ he will get stomped on at home.
- If he redraws and says ‘Oh well’ he will get stomped on at home.
Regardless of what he does, much of the world will continue to stomp on him. And Russia will continue to have big problems.
problem:
you have “air-travel size country” … but “bus-travel” population/income situation
kindalike africa
I can’t help but wonder if, as Russian troops advance, they will take revenge on those Ukrainian farmers who were towing tanks to their homes as war souvenirs. Reminds me of how, during the Bataan Death March, the Japanese were known for executing American POWs who were found to have looted Japanese mementos in their possession.
(Sorry iiandyiiii, I didn’t mean this as a direct reply to you, somehow it ended up that way.)
Notice the part at the end where he says once the arms cross the border, they are Ukraine’s problem? And that the Ukrainian side is closer to where the Russians are? That pretty much gives Putin a bright line on when he can attack the resupply lines without blowback from NATO.
I don’t think Putin really cares about what people at home think. Russia has been handling “dissidents” for decades now. There’s always more room in Siberia. I don’t think people realize how cut off from the Russian people Putin already was before the war. Hell, he’s out of reach of most of the wealthy in Russia too.
At this point, I think he could get away with just holding on to the ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine and calling it a victory. I’m not sure how long sanctions will last once the war settles down to a low conflict war. People are already freaking out about gas and heating oil prices, and those aren’t coming down soon.
I don’t understand this talk of winning. Winning was rushing the capital and taking it on day one or two and putting up a puppet government before anyone could react that would parrot the official story and getting away with everything with zero to minor sanctions from the West. That is the only thing that could count as winning. What’s left now? the Russian army is now exposed for a complete joke no matter what happens, Russia is going to be economically fucked for decades and will probably collapse. The only reason to keep fighting is to continue pretending he hasn’t lost yet, the moment they give up the loss becomes real, but there is absolutely nothing they can achieve in the Ukraine that can be called a win.
A lot of people seem to be under the impression that Russia is actually winning this confrontation. Russia is throwing off the shackles of western companies, demonstrating it can take care of itself and Putin is in control…large and in charge. Russia is showing it is dominant, and splitting the west over oil and gas, and the west will have to acknowledge all of this pretty soon or they will get…inflation. Or something like that, the narrative definitely seems confused on some points, except Putin is the man!
As to the actual war, Russia still seems to be grinding forward so far. While it hasn’t been a quick victorious war with Russia just marching to victory, they still are progressing, and Ukraine seems to be talking about negotiating away the breakaway regions, Crimea, and even NATO membership, though Putin still wants more so not sure if that will be enough. The reality is that, aside from the economic impacts which are still unknown wrt Russia going forward, Russia is still grinding through Ukraine, and even if it’s taking longer with more resistance than they thought it would, they still hold huge advantages. Of course, if the economic impact is more than the pro-Putin or anti-western crowd think then the longer this thing takes, the more chance for things to go really, really badly for Putin et al. That said, I saw a poll earlier today saying that Putin’s popularity is still high and support for the war is 60+%. Of course, how good those polls are is open to question…
My point was that the inevitable grinding defeat of the Ukraine no longer helps Russia. Whatever benefit they might gain from that pales in comparison to the damage that has been done to them.
Well, my lame attempts at humor aside, the point is that Russia might not see it that way. They might see the inevitable defeat of Ukraine, whether or not it’s long, as a victory for them, and may believe that they can either get around the sanctions or wait them out, especially once the combat is over. Whether that’s realistic or not is beside the point…it’s what Putin et al believe that matters.
The problem with a no-fly zone is that it would require neutralizing the surface to air missile infrastructure that is located on Russian soil.
If you don’t insist on “Western level of safety” you can have your air travel with your bus travel population. Which is how a lot of air travel is done in poorer regions of the world.
All the nations that produce petroleum and natural gas will ramp up production to eat up that sweet, sweet profit. It will first stabilize and then reduce prices from a peak that will, yes, be very alarming an uncomfortable. But the West isn’t going to be at peak prices forever even if the Russo-Ukraine war drags on.
And then they can celebrate that victory by putting an extra potato in the soup while watching a replay of the glorious athletes in the 1980 Moscow Olympics for the 4th time on the TV.
Well, Saudi Arabia and the UAE both refused phone calls from Biden about increasing production. With OPEC saying no, that’s going to put a crimp in upping supplies.
Greed will win out in the end.
If SA and UAE don’t want to play the petrodollars will go to someone like Venezuela.